The Nationals are one of the worst baserunning teams in the last 5+ years according to stats on Fangraphs. The little things do tend to add up.
Having said that, I think the Nats are the better team, and will continue to prove it this week.
I don't think the Fangraphs base-running stat really tells us if a team runs well. For instance, it counts taking an extra base, but I've often seen that bad defense lets a runner get the base.
Example, from '86 - '88 Strawberry...who could do many individual things well, but not always at the right time. Runner on second, single to RF. Strawberry fires perfect no-hop throw to Carter, who catches it belt high center of the plate...but the runner was already a step or three past home. Hitter takes second because Strawberry made the dazzling throw rather than hit the cut-off man. In the FG stat, that would show as a plus for the batter, when it was really Strawberry's mistake.
Similarly, because Strawberry was so disappointing in those days, he seemed to steal second at times when the Mets didn't need a steal...big lead late in the game. Wally Backman (and maybe the real Len Dykstra) were usually the guys who caused commotion by running aggressively.
The Fangraphs stat seems "unfinished" because it does not count fielding mistakes that are forced by hard running. My instinct says that Harper, Bernadina, Lombardozzi, Espinosa, and Desmond run hard enough that other teams don't field as well as they should. Might not show up as errors if it's a DP not made, or if the scorer is generous to the hitter.
