2012 media power rankings

[hammondsnats]

nats missed the boat on adding another bat, that's why nobody should be surprised if they fail to make the playoffs.  unless bryce is amazing right away and makes the team out of camp.

[PebbleBall]

nats missed the boat on adding another bat, that's why nobody should be surprised if they fail to make the playoffs.  unless bryce is amazing right away and makes the team out of camp.

I still feel like it'd be a huge surprise if the Nationals were really involved in the WC chase come September.  I don't understand where the ~10 win improvement is supposed to come from. 

[PowerBoater69]

14th?  Only half of baseball away from being "the best?"  On the plus side their organization ranking to payroll ranking is still a robust +8

14 out of 30, yeah that's really impressive.  Minor league rankings are such guesswork that they are really meaningless, different analysts are all over the place with their rankings and the teams jump and fall back almost every week as players are promoted.  Bottom line is that our talent pool was stacked enough to net us a 25 year old all-star and still has one of the top prospects in the game.

[hammondsnats]

I still feel like it'd be a huge surprise if the Nationals were really involved in the WC chase come September.  I don't understand where the ~10 win improvement is supposed to come from. 

i'd feel a lot better going the extra mile with another proven bat.

[PowerBoater69]

i'd feel a lot better going the extra mile with another proven bat.

No kidding, if our starting line-up has major weak spots what does that say about our bench.

[Baseball is Life]

I still feel like it'd be a huge surprise if the Nationals were really involved in the WC chase come September.  I don't understand where the ~10 win improvement is supposed to come from. 

With the extra WC this year you may not need 90 wins to get in. But I'm with you, unless they get that CF I predict 85 wins or so.

[Tyler Durden]

Improvement should come from improved pitching - Edwin Jackson and Gio plus lots more innings from JZ and Stras.

On offense, hopefully they see some regression to the mean from Zim, LaRoche, and Werth.

Don't know if that will add up to a ten game improvement, but it should put them in the discussion.

[Nick the Pig]

I don't understand where the ~10 win improvement is supposed to come from. 

140 more innings from Strasburg.  40 more from Zimmermann.  Gio basically replacing Livan.  That's 5-8 wins right there.

Zimmerman healthy and in there for 50 more games.  Werth should be better this year.  That's another 2-3 games, easy.

An already good bullpen should be even better this year.

I don't think anyone is predicting 100 wins.  But 90 is reasonable.

[Lintyfresh85]

140 more innings from Strasburg.  40 more from Zimmermann.  Gio basically replacing Livan.  That's 5-8 wins right there.

Zimmerman healthy and in there for 50 more games.  Werth should be better this year.  That's another 2-3 games, easy.

An already good bullpen should be even better this year.

I don't think anyone is predicting 100 wins.  But 90 is reasonable.

That assumes no other teams made improvements.

[Nick the Pig]

That assumes no other teams made improvements.

Some did, others didn't.

In the NL East the Marlins certainly made improvements, but can the same be said about the Mets, Braves and Phillies ?

[wpa2629]

That assumes no other teams made improvements.

Here's the thing

If the Nats had simply beaten the teams that were bringing up the bottom of the ranks like, Houston, Marlins, Dodgers, etc., they could have been in the playoffs LAST year.

Continue to do as well as they did last year against teams like the Phillies, Braves, etc., and then WIN the series against the lower tier teams and the Nats could certainly get there this year.

[Rasta]

If everything goes well I could see the Nats hitting 88-90 wins.  Zim stays healthy, Laroche hits .275 and 25 bombs, Morse is close to what he was, Werth having a solid season, Ramos & Espi improving a bit, Stras, Zimnn, Gio & Jackson having good years.  If all that happens they can be the second wildcard. 

All those things most likely won't happen.  I see us around 85 wins still and Rizzo adding the white whale next year and Harper being up full time.

[houston-nat]

All those things most likely won't happen.  I see us around 85 wins still and Rizzo adding the white whale next year and Harper being up full time.

If we add the white whale before 2013 and Harper and Rendon are (a) as good as advertised and (b) here for the full season, that's a World Series team. But I'm getting ahead of myself...

[Rasta]

If we add the white whale before 2013 and Harper and Rendon are (a) as good as advertised and (b) here for the full season, that's a World Series team. But I'm getting ahead of myself...

How about if we add Cole Hamels as well?   

[PowerBoater69]

BetOnline has the Nats at 81 games and LVH SuperBook has them at 84.5.  If I lived in Vegas I'd live for chances like this, bet the under at 84.5 and the over at 81.  The only potential losses would be the vig and the lost interest on the amount bet.  But if it comes in at 82-84 wins you clean-up big time.  I'd put a couple grand each way on every spread where I have a three game window.

http://beyondthebets.com/2012/02/19/betonline-becomes-first-offshore-sportsbook-to-release-win-totals-for-all-30-mlb-teams/

[houston-nat]

How about if we add Cole Hamels as well?   

Or Greinke...

[Rasta]

Or Greinke...

I'd prefer Hamels but would be fine with Greinke.

[tomterp]

BetOnline has the Nats at 81 games and LVH SuperBook has them at 84.5.  If I lived in Vegas I'd live for chances like this, bet the under at 84.5 and the over at 81.  The only potential losses would be the vig and the lost interest on the amount bet.  But if it comes in at 82-84 wins you clean-up big time.  I'd put a couple grand each way on every spread where I have a three game window.

Yep, that would be a major arbitrage opportunity, but such differences are usually very short lived as bets like yours drive the lines towards a truer equilibrium.  Still, if you can get it, it's playing with house money.

[tomterp]

BP's PECOTA on the NL East:

Phillies 90-72
Braves  88-74
Marlins  88-74
Nats      84-78
Mets     79-83

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16084

5) Are the Nationals finally ready to compete after years of wallowing at the basement of the NL East?

DC: They’ll certainly be more competitive than in years past, especially if they catch a few breaks.  The problem isn’t so much that the team isn’t talented—they are—but that they’re not as talented as the Phillies, Braves, and possibly the Marlins too.  A front-four of Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, and Edwin Jackson is excellent, although an innings cap on Strasburg limits his value and rules him out for the playoffs even if they were to make it.  And unfortunately, that rotation is matched or exceeded by what the Braves and Phillies will trot out there.

MJ: The Nationals have a worthy rotation, and I believe that it may actually be second-best in a loaded pitcher's division. The additions of Jackson and Gonzalez alone may have added a couple wins to the team's 80-win mark last season.

DC: The team certainly has upside, especially if they can stay relatively healthy (no sure thing with guys like LaRoche, Zimmerman, and Strasburg on board). And to their credit, they do have a very deep bullpen and a good offense…

MJ: That offense is on the rise.

DC: …but they’re still probably a year or two and a couple more moves away from competing.

MJ: I would agree with the sentiment that they are just weak enough at a few key positions that they may lag behind what happens to be a strong division in the NL East. Even if the Nationals and Marlins were good enough to be on the fringes of contention, the Braves and Phillies represent a very strong front at the top of the division.

DC: It’s going to be hard to breach that top two, and even then, it’s not exactly guaranteed that the Wild Card will come from the NL East.

MJ: The Nationals and Marlins may just be playing the role the Toronto Blue Jays have played in the AL East for the last few seasons: a competitive, good team lagging behind even better clubs.

Derek McCarty and Michael Jong.

[The Chief]

We split the series with the Braves last year and they've done nothing this offseason.  In what way are they more talented?

[houston-nat]

Also Marlins at 88 wins? What are they projecting for JJ and Hanley? I'm not buying the idea that the Marlins just improved by 16 games.

[The Chief]

I wondered about that too.  We finished 8.5 wins ahead of them, so...  their additions overtake ours by 12.5 wins?  *cough*bullcrap*cough*

[Rasta]

I hoped they mentioned the injury problems with Josh Johnson & Tim Hudson.  Hudson may not be ready until May 1. 

[cmdterps44]

We split the series with the Braves last year and they've done nothing this offseason.  In what way are they more talented?

Well, I do remember a lot of our success came from clutch hits from random guys like Nix. I think we can have a huge performance but we really need LaRoche to put up numbers like Nix did during the summer months. He was a big part of our 13(?) game winning streak in the summer.

Also, I read that Uggla put on more muscle which can actually hurt some of your necessary traits like ability to move (and he was already a crap defender) and hit. And you know your screwed when Jack Wilson is the only solid defender in your infield.

[The Chief]

Well, I do remember a lot of our success came from clutch hits from random guys like Nix.

I trust your objectivity more than most, so I'm gonna take your word on this, but really every hit is clutch when your offense is as bad as ours was

And that still doesn't change the outcomes.  We've always been good against the Braves anyway, but now we're better on the whole.  I would have no problem saying the Braves had more talent than us in previous years, but going into this season I just can't agree with that anymore.