2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread

[Rasta]

Morse fits a need for a productive bat to play DH or 1st.  For the past few contending years, they have filled in those positions on a year to year basis (2011, 2102).  He'll be making less than they were paying Pena last year.  They had $12MM+ in Scott and Pena last year, so Loney and Morse saves money.  They have an abundance of cheap young starters (Price, Hellickson, Moore, Niemann, Davis, Cobb, Archer, Torres), which is why most writers looking at that roster figure that Shields (or possibly Price) is available.  Doesn't mean they have to do the deal, but if they do want to move Archer or Cobb to the rotation, they likely can do the deal, save salary, and get a production out of it.

It's likely not happening, but Espinosa would be superior to most prospects they could receive.  They may prefer multiple prospects and roster help for any deal for Shields, but that is more of an issue than them not wanting a longer term MI and a short term cheap plug in for 1st / DH.

I understand what you're saying but I think they could do better than Morse/Espinosa.  Maybe I'm wrong but knowing how they love cost control I think they would rather take Moore.  Maybe they don't view him in the same way as the Nats FO though.  Should be interesting to watch.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Rasta - It is possible the Rays would prefer Moore to Morse, depending on how they view each one's projected 2013 production. If it is close at all, they should prefer the 6 years of team control to one at $6+MM. I'm not sure the Nats should put him in instead of Morse.  Espinosa should be more than enough (maybe even too much , as NJ, noble, and others have said).

[Rasta]

Rasta - It is possible the Rays would prefer Moore to Morse, depending on how they view each one's projected 2013 production. If it is close at all, they should prefer the 6 years of team control to one at $6+MM. I'm not sure the Nats should put him in instead of Morse.  Espinosa should be more than enough (maybe even too much , as NJ, noble, and others have said).

I understand that but respectfully disagree.  I think pitching is at such a premium that someone will offer a better deal for Shields.  Personally, I'm really torn on this one.  I'd like to see if Espi can pull a Desi and really step up his game from the offensive standpoint.

In a best case scenario, what if Moore becomes a true power slugging 1B and Espi cuts way down on the strikeouts?  You'd have your infield set for years with Rendon waiting in the wings.  What a great problem to have.  For me, I'd love to sign Greinke because it only costs money and not players. 

The ultimate question is how high will the Lerners allow the budget to increase while these young players go up in cost?  Will they let it go to 150M?  200?  They can keep all these guys but there's no way to keep this team together if the budget is 100M. 

[zimm_da_kid]

If Espi blows again this year, then I want Rizzo to go for Cano next offseason.  Powerful lefty and great defender.  Dream big.  It's the offseason.     

[NJ Ave]

I just have serious doubts that there is a single ML front office that doesn't understand the value of team control years at this point. There are definitely baseball writers and fans who don't understand their value, which is why you get fake momentum behind things like "who do the Nats include WITH Espinosa to be able to get Shields?"

Certainly Rizzo understand the value, which is why I doubt he'd go Espinosa for Shields straight up, let alone throw in other assets.

To spell it out, BJ Upton just got 5 years @ $75 million for playing a premium defensive position (CF) with a previous 4 years of .242/.316/.420.

Danny Espinosa's career line is .239/.315/.411.

I don't know if fans and writers are stuck in a time warp where you can sign Cal Ripken for 5/$30.5 million, but finding a Danny Espinosa on the open market costs $12-15 million a season and a 3-5 year commitment.

So there's no way Rizzo is ignoring the fact that, if Shields and Espinosa are roughly similar players in terms of value, he's giving up an extra two years of team control just for kicks (probably $24-30 million in replacement value).

I mean, Jimmy Rollins entering his age-33 season last offseason got 3/$38 million coming off three seasons of .255/.316/.403. Players are EXPENSIVE!

[HalfSmokes]

I just have serious doubts that there is a single ML front office that doesn't understand the value of team control years at this point.

certainly, with regards to the Rays, they understand better than most (look at their handeling of Moore and Longoria), sometimes I wonder about the nats though (extend Zimmermann)

[JCA-CrystalCity]

NJ - wait a bit.  You know that much of Espinosa's value is tied up in his defense, and you know that the public domain stuff valuing defense is probably behind the Rays proprietary systems and those on the Nats.  The rest of his WAR comes from playing regularly and his position.  his offense has been worth 2.6 runs for his career.

While it is only 2 years of Shields, his cost is below market for pitchers of his track record, too.  It isn't so much "how much more is 4 years of Espinosa control worth relative to 2 years of Shields," it also is "how much more attractive is the Shields contract than overpaying in years and dollars for Greinke (many articles saying he's gettting $150MM), Sanchez, or taking on the risks of Dempster or Haren?" 

Finally, if you view Lombardozzi a 2 WAR player if he is full time (basically, replacement level offense, positive defense but not elite, and a regular), you are swapping about 1.5 WAR a year for 2 years of Shields (less what you would have gotten out of a typical #5 starter).  It is not as cut and dry as you make it out to be.

As for the morse piece, this in part assumes that ALR is back, so Morse is less of an asset for us and closes the deal for the Rays.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Duke, Bray, etc... moved to winter meetings thread.

[BIGDADDYEMPIRE]

what about a deal for Andrew Miller?  Dude is coming off injury but he can put up 98mph as a lefty out of the pen.

[zimm_da_kid]

what about a deal for Andrew Miller?  Dude is coming off injury but he can put up 98mph as a lefty out of the pen.

why not

[Slateman]

why not

Because he's awful. He walks twice as many batters as Gio or Edwin

[zimm_da_kid]

Because he's awful. He walks twice as many batters as Gio or Edwin

he's a reliever for a reason.  If all lefties who could throw 98 had elite control then they would be in starting rotations now wouldn't they.  And plus, it doesn't have to be on a major league deal.

[Jordanz Meatballz]

Dave Cameron on the potential trade:

Yeah, I don't buy it. Espinosa isn't a huge upgrade over Roberts/Rodriguez, and Morse isn't worth much. I can't see TB giving up a legitimate guy like Shields for that kind of return.

Is this how this potential deal is perceived outside of Washington?

[houston-nat]

Dave Cameron on the potential trade:

Is this how this potential deal is perceived outside of Washington?

That's probably how it's viewed in the trade. Average fans on the street see Morse as way more valuable cuz of the power, while Dave Cameron sees Morse as way less valuable because he continues to think Morse is an average hitter and crap defender.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

It's just interesting that writers, analysts, and even folks here have such vastly different views of the fairness of the the speculative deal, with people coming out both ways both here and nationally.  It would not have gotten traction if it were clearly unreasonable each way. The writers who have run with it are not dismissive.

[Mattionals]

It's well known that Cameron has a distaste for Morse back from his days as a blogger for the Mariners. 

Espinosa is almost two years to the day younger than Sean Rodriguez and plays better defense and has at least posted a +wRC over 100 in one year.  His "bad" year so far was his second and his +wRC was 94.  Rodriguez at 27 had a 71.  Lower is worse here. 

Tat Man is 32 and just posted a +wRC of 77.  Cameron is out of his mind.  Two guys who are well below average hitters and above average defenders with no upside versus a young kid with tons of upside, switch hits, and plays elite defense.

[Mattionals]

Here is my take on Shields.  If it was straight up for Morse (not happening), then it's a great deal for the Nats but only a one year deal for the Rays.  If it's Espinosa straight up for Shields, It's better for the Rays and worse for the Nats.  If it's Espinosa and Morse for Shields, Rizzo better walk the eff away.

I still find it hard to compare a pitcher to a position player.  On one hand, a great pitcher HAS way less chances to attain greatness yet a position player gives value every day.  I guess that is why the SABR folks tried to make WAR so you could "compare" two guys.  Unfortunately, I still think WAR is a very flawed stat and I like looking at hitting and fielding stats separately.  I have no way to compare someone like Shields to Espinosa.

I would be happy with Shields, but I don't think the Nats would match up to where both sides end up happy.  I think Shields is a worst case scenario if Grienke follows the money to LaLa Land.

[Slateman]

he's a reliever for a reason.  If all lefties who could throw 98 had elite control then they would be in starting rotations now wouldn't they.  And plus, it doesn't have to be on a major league deal.

I was talking about him as a reliever

[Kevrock]

Dave Cameron on the potential trade:

Is this how this potential deal is perceived outside of Washington?

Cameron hates Morse.

[Tyler Durden]

Could the Rays trade Wade Davis for Lombo and Morse?  I'd do that.  Davis has team options until 2017.  Or Morse and a prospect (Skole?).

[Vega]

Could the Rays trade Wade Davis for Lombo and Morse?  I'd do that.  Davis has team options until 2017.  Or Morse and a prospect (Skole?).

Wade Davis is pitching out of the pen for them at the moment. Morse and something else would get talks started, although adding Lombo probably gets it done. That's too high a price IMO.

[Tyler Durden]

Davis only pitches out of the pen for them because they have so many good pitchers.

I guess Arrieta or Tillman from the O's could work.  Same thing - we could add in Lombo if necessary.  Though neither Arrieta nor Tillman is very inspiring.  There is some upside, but you can't really pencil in either one for 150+ innings as the 5th guy.

[Slateman]

wow ... Pagan went 4/40 ... No way Hamilton goes for less than 6 years

[Slateman]

Nolasco asked for a trade

[Vega]

Nolasco asked for a trade

Do not want.

I guess Arrieta or Tillman from the O's could work.  Same thing - we could add in Lombo if necessary.  Though neither Arrieta nor Tillman is very inspiring.  There is some upside, but you can't really pencil in either one for 150+ innings as the 5th guy.

Arrieta is crap, but Tillman looked very good late in the year. I doubt that they deal him.