Harper #3 Overall Prospect

[HalfSmokes]

I have Zimmerman, Quentin, Drew, and Fielder working out with  Young, Gordon and Kendrick still having a shot

[Tyler Durden]

I suppose.  I guess it depends on your definition of 'working out.'  Even with a low bar, that's 4/10.  And these were supposedly the best of the best - the Mike Trouts and Bryce Harpers of their time.

[Potomac Cannons]

I suppose.  I guess it depends on your definition of 'working out.'  Even with a low bar, that's 4/10.  And these were supposedly the best of the best - the Mike Trouts and Bryce Harpers of their time.

Not at all.  They were the best of their time but were they considered "can't miss?"  How many guys come in and turn into a truly great hitter each year?  That's 10 guys at one time and 4 of them have been good to very good MLB hitters and 3 others have shown signs of being good.  That's a really good rate for baseball prospects.

[JMUalumni]

Kind of bored because of the snow and this discussion piqued my interest.  So just for craps and giggles I looked up those 10 players and their career rWAR (thus far).  Take it FWIW.

1.  Delmon Young - -1.0/1.4
2.  Jeremy Hermida - 3.1/3.4
3.  Ryan Zimmerman - 17.5/26.4
4.  Brandon Wood - -2.5/-2.6
5.  Andy Marte - -1.3/-1.9
6.  Carlos Quentin - 5.6/5.5
7.  Alex Gordon - 4.0/4.4
8.  Stephen Drew - 8.9/10.1
9.  Prince Fielder - 15.8/20.3
10.  Howie Kendrick - 9.6/8.4

*EDIT:The first number is rWAR, second is fWAR

[Tyler Durden]

OK, they're not 'can't miss.'  Then they were the Mike Moustakas and Will Myers and Eric Hosmers of their time - is that fair?  Or the several other top prospects who are being counted on as future all stars. 

That's the hope for top 10 prospects, right?  Not just good but with some flaws like Quinten.  Would you be happy with that for Harper?  I wouldn't. 

[houston-nat]

On that scale, Kendrick and Drew worked out but only Zim and Fielder definitely are "top ten" material.

[HalfSmokes]

Not at all.  They were the best of their time but were they considered "can't miss?"  How many guys come in and turn into a truly great hitter each year?  That's 10 guys at one time and 4 of them have been good to very good MLB hitters and 3 others have shown signs of being good.  That's a really good rate for baseball prospects.

Marte and Wood were pretty epic failures and both were considered can't miss before missing

[blue911]

OK, they're not 'can't miss.'  Then they were the Mike Moustakas and Will Myers and Eric Hosmers of their time - is that fair?  Or the several other top prospects who are being counted on as future all stars. 

That's the hope for top 10 prospects, right?  Not just good but with some flaws like Quinten.  Would you be happy with that for Harper?  I wouldn't. 

Hosmer is rated above the other two. John Hart seemed to be worried about Mike Haynesworth's ability to keep the weight off.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The only complete busts on that list are Wood and Marte.  Even Hermida had a good age 23 season with FLA (.296 / .369 / .501, 18 HR, 484 PAs, 123 games).  gordon also had one good year then some injuries.  Quentin had a borderline MVP year in 2008 and another above average year last year.  What you are showing is that highly regarded hitting prospects almost always have some above average performance early in their MLB careers.

[Potomac Cannons]

Kind of bored because of the snow and this discussion piqued my interest.  So just for craps and giggles I looked up those 10 players and their career rWAR (thus far).  Take it FWIW.

But WAR, both of them, account for defense in some way.  The list was best "hitting" prospects.  Here's wOBA/OPS instead:

1.  Delmon Young - .327/.760
2.  Jeremy Hermida - .331/.752
3.  Ryan Zimmerman - .389/.839
4.  Brandon Wood - .206/.458
5.  Andy Marte - .276/.635
6.  Carlos Quentin - .361/.835
7.  Alex Gordon - .323/.733
8.  Stephen Drew - .336/.780
9.  Prince Fielder - .387/.919
10.  Howie Kendrick - .328/.752

Definitely looks a little different.  Of course, I'm not sure if Sickels had his list adjusted relative to position or if it was just pure hitting talent.

[Tyler Durden]

Huh.  That's not what I see at all.  I see a list where there are 2 all stars.  Some solid players, and a few guys that never made it.  If you count Hermida as a success story for a top prospect, then that to me is a pretty low bar.  Alex Gordon is terrible.  He can't crack KC's lineup.  He, by the way, was 'can't miss' once upon a time.

There are teams out there that are terrible year after year because they trade established stars for prospects in the hope that some of those prospects can eventually become stars themselves.  What I see from that list is that, even among top prospects, only a handful reach that level. 

I'm pretty sure if KC ends up with 3 more Alex Gordons and Jeremy Hermidas and Quentins, they'll be disappointed.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

3 guys who finished top 10 in MVP votes (Young, Fielder, Quentin).  One perennial Golden Glove / Silver Slugger candidate who has been called one of the top 10 players in terms of trade value in the majors (Zimmerman). One of the top 4 offensive shortstops in baseball (Drew).  A regular second baseman for a perennial playoff team (Kendrick).  Two players whose career progres ended up being hurt by injury (Hermida and Gordon) but who had decent years when healthy. 

[DPMOmaha]

Gordon's had some bad luck with injuries and changed positions.  He actually did pretty well out there.  I think he's primed for a break out year, personally. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Gordon's had some bad luck with injuries and changed positions.  He actually did pretty well out there.  I think he's primed for a break out year, personally. 

In left field.  I'm optimistic about him too. 

[Tyler Durden]

JCA we'll just agree to disagree.  If I'm looking at the top 10 list for 2011, I'm hoping for more than what was produced from the top 10 list of 2006.  From 2006, I see Zim, Fielder, and then some solid players mixed in with some busts. 

[Potomac Cannons]

Huh.  That's not what I see at all.  I see a list where there are 2 all stars.  Some solid players, and a few guys that never made it.  If you count Hermida as a success story for a top prospect, then that to me is a pretty low bar.  Alex Gordon is terrible.  He can't crack KC's lineup.  He, by the way, was 'can't miss' once upon a time.

There are teams out there that are terrible year after year because they trade established stars for prospects in the hope that some of those prospects can eventually become stars themselves.  What I see from that list is that, even among top prospects, only a handful reach that level. 

I'm pretty sure if KC ends up with 3 more Alex Gordons and Jeremy Hermidas and Quentins, they'll be disappointed.

You don't see Quentin's bat, as far as rate stats, being just a notch below Zim?  Really?  The list was best "hitting" prospects.

You've got Delmon Young, still only 25, who has a .760 OPS which was a good .826 last season after three mediocre years at 22-24 (wOBA jumped to .352).

You've got Stephen Drew who put up the 3rd best OPS and wOBA at SS last year at age 27 (behind only Tulo and Hanley).

You've got Howie Kendrick who was 10th in OPS and 12th in wOBA in by far his worst year at 2B.

You've got Quentin who was 10th in OPS and wOBA in RF last year and was 2nd in OPS and 3rd in wOBA in LF in 2008.

That's a lot more than just two all stars and some solid players.  That's at least 3 elite bats (Zim, Fielder, Quentin--who can't field at all) and two top 10 bats at their positions in the MI.  5 for 10 seems a little more accurate for who has been a successful "hitter" at the MLB level.

You've got Gordon who put up a good offensive 2008 then got hurt and hasn't play that well since then.  Hermida had a very good offensive 2007 and even his 08/09 seasons were a little below average batting.

In a list of hitting ability, they've done pretty well.

[DPMOmaha]

JCA we'll just agree to disagree.  If I'm looking at the top 10 list for 2011, I'm hoping for more than what was produced from the top 10 list of 2006.  From 2006, I see Zim, Fielder, and then some solid players mixed in with some busts. 

But it's rare you draft for a superstar.  If you get a solid player, it's a success.

[Potomac Cannons]

But it's rare you draft for a superstar.  If you get a solid player, it's a success.

Exactly.  If you're failed picks are 5th starters, 6th inning relievers or bench players then you're doing well.  If you're good picks are everyday players who are top 10 or so at their position then you're probably going to contend.

[HalfSmokes]

Exactly.  If you're failed picks are 5th starters, 6th inning relievers or bench players then you're doing well.  If you're good picks are everyday players who are top 10 or so at their position then you're probably going to contend.

for the most part I agree, I think the only exception is drafting in the top three or so picks- those picks should hit almost every time, and by hit I mean near the best at their positions

[Potomac Cannons]

for the most part I agree, I think the only exception is drafting in the top three or so picks- those picks should hit almost every time, and by hit I mean near the best at their positions

True.  Especially in drafts with guys like Harper and Strasburg.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

JCA we'll just agree to disagree.  If I'm looking at the top 10 list for 2011, I'm hoping for more than what was produced from the top 10 list of 2006.  From 2006, I see Zim, Fielder, and then some solid players mixed in with some busts. 

Good. I think the exchange helped us both flesh out our thoughts.  Thanks!

[mimontero88]

In the larger context of whether Bryce Harper is a sure thing, how many top 10 prospects have been deemed the greatest hitting prospect of all-time since 2006?  That would be one.  In terms of comparing the bust rates of top prospects, I think Bryce Harper is in a league of his own.

[HalfSmokes]

Gordon, Longeria, and Weiters all got the same kind of hype at some point

[blue911]

for the most part I agree, I think the only exception is drafting in the top three or so picks- those picks should hit almost every time, and by hit I mean near the best at their positions

There have been only two drafts where the top 3 picks made an all-star team at some point in their careers. There's a lot of miss in the draft. Especially in the early years.

[mimontero88]

Gordon, Longeria, and Weiters all got the same kind of hype at some point

I don't remember any of them getting a label as potentially the best anything of all time though.  That's why at this point (especially with the AFL performance) I do consider Harper a can't-miss prospect.