Follow The Prospects: Brian Goodwin, CF

[blue911]

That's hilarious about Mike Trout, who hit 75 points higher and OPSd 200 points higher than Goodwin at the same level three years younger.

I'd be ECSTATIC if Brian Goodwin became the next Devon White.

That would be fantastic.

[Slateman]

I don't know what wOBA is. So one or two good years mixed in with lots of injuries and general poor play?

He's played 150 games in 5 out of the last 7 seasons.

[Vega]

He's played 150 games in 5 out of the last 7 seasons.

Alright. Just general poor play then.

[Slateman]

Alright. Just general poor play then.

3.8, 7.7, 2.6, 3.5, 6.7, 2.3 WAR in his healthy seasons. While there are some low lows, that would still be great for a young CFer with plus defense under team control for several years. Granderson is nothing to shake your head at. Would gladly take those kind of numbers from Goodwin.

[welch]

Granderson hits better in the majors than Goodwin has in AA. I hope Goodwin learns to hit, but until he can handle minor league pitching he remains a "maybe some day player". My instanct says that this season is important: he has had time to show he can hit, but hasn't.

[sph274]

3.8, 7.7, 2.6, 3.5, 6.7, 2.3 WAR in his healthy seasons. While there are some low lows, that would still be great for a young CFer with plus defense under team control for several years. Granderson is nothing to shake your head at. Would gladly take those kind of numbers from Goodwin.

I think he was talking about Chris Young. Chris Young does kind of suck and is the kind of guy you can pick up in FA every other year. I hope Goodwin is better than that

[Slateman]

Oh. Well, Young did have back to back 4 WAR seasons. If Goodwin could play like that, it would be awesome.

Goodwin is only 23. While I think comparing him to Trout is insane, I think it's too early to give up on him. Let's at least see what he does this season.

[UMDNats]

Granderson hits better in the majors than Goodwin has in AA. I hope Goodwin learns to hit, but until he can handle minor league pitching he remains a "maybe some day player". My instanct says that this season is important: he has had time to show he can hit, but hasn't.

I really don't understand how a wRC+ of 115 in of AA is "can't hit," especially for a centerfielder. Showed clear improvement from 2012, too.

[welch]

I really don't understand how a wRC+ of 115 in of AA is "can't hit," especially for a centerfielder. Showed clear improvement from 2012, too.

Has hit .223 and .252 in two seasons in AA. That is improvement, but not enough. A good CF is someone who hits something like .281, .294, and .306 in his last three season in the minors. (He's named Bernie Williams...my model of a first-rate CF)

[UMDNats]

Has hit .223 and .252 in two seasons in AA. That is improvement, but not enough. A good CF is someone who hits something like .281, .294, and .306 in his last three season in the minors. (He's named Bernie Williams...my model of a first-rate CF)

i mean bernie is a potential/borderline HOF'er, so i guess we should expect goodwin to be at some amazing level or he's not good?

[Terpfan76]

i mean bernie is a potential/borderline HOF'er, so i guess we should expect goodwin to be at some amazing level or he's not good?

Ty Cobb or gtfo!

[sph274]

bernie williams is really quite far from the HoF, his case is more of a "hey i played on the yankees while they won all those championships so everyone knows who i am" kind of thing. he was definitely above average but falls quite short when you use WAR. A Bernie Williams type player would be a great result from goodwin and not incredibly far fetched. a couple of all star appearances, a fairly long career is a reasonable ceiling expectation with a floor of a Chris Young.

[welch]

Bernie Williams was a terrific CF, an important contributor to four or five Yankee WS championships, but not HoF. My mark of HoF CF is Willie Mays, Duke Snyder, Mickey Mantle.

If Goodwin hits like Bernie and plays a smooth CF, that would be wonderful. He's got a way to go.

[Terpfan76]

Bernie Williams was a terrific CF, an important contributor to four or five Yankee WS championships, but not HoF. My mark of HoF CF is Willie Mays, Duke Snyder, Mickey Mantle.

If Goodwin hits like Bernie and plays a smooth CF, that would be wonderful. He's got a way to go.

Griffey Jr???

[Lintyfresh85]

Bernie Williams' career UZR is -143. He was really bad at defense.

[UMDNats]

man i never meant to start some kind of bernie/HOF discussion, i don't think he's HOF worthy, i meant that he was really good for a long time and expecting goodwin to be that good and if he's not then he can't hit is kind of unfair

[Natsinpwc]

That will teach you!  There is a similar discussion on the Strasburg extension thread.  If he doesn;t win 20 games and have a sub 3 ERA he should not be extended.  If he did that every year he would be a HOF.

Everyone cannot be a superstar; you generally win because you have lots of above average players.  Like Bernie Williams. 

We will see how Goodwin does this year.  Bird in the hand usually worth 2 in the minors but depends how much the bird in hand (Span) will cost down the road.   Souza could eclipse Goodwin though.   

[NJ Ave]

Wait wait wait, Bernie Williams was absolutely a superstar. He averaged 5.3 WAR a season from age 26-32 while being defensively subpar in CF because the Yankees liked to collect washed up ballplayers to hopefully smash the ball from LF.

I don't care if you get an extra win in the positional adjustment from LF to CF - considering he was losing a win per season for most of his career in CF but almost certainly still would have been an above-average LF, he probably was a 6 WAR LF for the better part of a decade, just playing CF out of position.

[NJ Ave]

I mean, he was 14th in the majors in offensive value added between 1995-2001, right between A-Rod and Larry Walker. The guy was a STUD.

[NJ Ave]

This reminds me of the criticism of Miguel Cabrera for being a terrible 3B. Look, if you're willing to play out of position because your team needs you to, that needs to be taken into account. If Miguel Cabrera or Bernie Williams would be worth an extra 1-2 wins a season at 1B or LF, that is their realistic value.

I guess Jose Canseco was OKAYYYY, but look at his pitching value extrapolated to 35 starts guys...see? Not that valuable.

[NJ Ave]

The 4 guys during Williams' peak that had 600 or more plate appearances in LF were Tim Raines, David Justice, Shane Spencer, and Chad Curtis. Where exactly should Bernie have played?

[Natsinpwc]

You seem like you like Bernie, correct?
 

[NJ Ave]

No, I really hated him and his Yankees. In college like 10 of us got together to root for the Diamondbacks in game 7 while one roommate from Jersey had to watch by himself somewhere else.

He doesn't belong in the HOF or anything like that. I just wanted to point out that he was really good and we would be lucky if Goodwin turned out anything like him even if it meant he couldn't play CF.

[welch]

Bernie Williams' career UZR is -143. He was really bad at defense.

How reliable is UZR?

I saw Bernie from his rookie season until he retired. He rarely made acrobatic catches because he postioned himself well. He got to the ball, made the catch, and never made a fuss. Not a powerful arm...just about average, but never out of position. Something like Denard Span if Span always hit .300 with 25 homers (or better).

[Lintyfresh85]

How reliable is UZR?

I saw Bernie from his rookie season until he retired. He rarely made acrobatic catches because he postioned himself well. He got to the ball, made the catch, and never made a fuss. Not a powerful arm...just about average, but never out of position. Something like Denard Span if Span always hit .300 with 25 homers (or better).

Even if we assume it's 25% inaccurate as to a fielder's true value... that'd put Williams at something around -100. Of course a lot of the damage came in his later years... but I think it's safe to assume he was probably a bit below average in the field.