Author Topic: 2011 NL East (Read 2840 times)

blue911 · « **Reply #25:** February 25, 2011, 02:31:53 PM »

The Phillies bullpen is going to kill them. They didn't scoring runs last season and their offense just got worse. It won't matter how good their big 4 are when it's always tied when they bring Danys Baez into the game.

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #26:** February 25, 2011, 02:33:46 PM »

Quote from: blue911 on February 25, 2011, 02:31:53 PM

The Phillies bullpen is going to kill them. They didn't scoring runs last season and their offense just got worse. It won't matter how good their big 4 are when it's always tied when they bring Danys Baez into the game.

We can only hope.

blue911 · « **Reply #27:** February 25, 2011, 02:35:02 PM »

Quote from: Lintyfresh85 on February 25, 2011, 02:33:46 PM

We can only hope.

Hey it's spring training.

meagl · « **Reply #28:** February 25, 2011, 04:36:05 PM »

Im not here to start anything. This was my honest unbiased objective opinion of how i believe the NL East will play out. i was able to pin point every teams win total within the win range i gave them last year.

but I guess its expected to hear all the Phillies suck comments.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #29:** February 25, 2011, 05:02:10 PM »

Reminder - there's an ignore button for trolls.

Kevrock · « **Reply #30:** February 25, 2011, 05:42:25 PM »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on February 25, 2011, 05:02:10 PM

Reminder - there's an ignore button for trolls.

Yeah, but when they start threads and get quoted it doesn't work perfectly.

Nathan · « **Reply #31:** February 25, 2011, 05:56:52 PM »

The OP seems fairly civilized and reasonable

PANatsFan · « **Reply #32:** February 25, 2011, 06:07:06 PM »

Quote from: Nathan on February 25, 2011, 05:56:52 PM

The OP seems fairly civilized and reasonable

The other guy is a tool, the OP is fine with me.

Minty Fresh · « **Reply #33:** February 25, 2011, 07:24:20 PM »

Quote from: meagl on February 25, 2011, 04:36:05 PM

This was my honest unbiased objective opinion

Your avatar belies the quoted statement.

cmdterps44 · « **Reply #34:** February 25, 2011, 07:32:12 PM »

Quote from: PANatsFan on February 25, 2011, 06:07:06 PM

The other guy is a tool, the OP is fine with me.

What other guy?

lol

Kenz aFan · « **Reply #35:** February 25, 2011, 08:33:11 PM »

Considering the rotation and offense the Phillies have, the 91 wins PECOTA has them at seems kinda low. Just how much value does PECOTA put on a teams bench/depth? Not being a subscriber, I'm curious.

Tyler Durden · « **Reply #36:** February 25, 2011, 08:50:52 PM »

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/02/mets-received-loan-from-mlb.html

The Mets didn't have enough to pay the bills in November and got a $25 mil loan from MLB.

LOL.

Official statement from the Mutts:
-----
We said in October that we expect to have a short-term liquidity issue. To address this, we did receive a loan from Major League Baseball in November. Beyond that, we will not discuss the matter any further.
------

Suck it, Mutts. Suck it, Phils, too - just because.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #37:** February 25, 2011, 10:14:30 PM »

Quote from: Kenz aFan on February 25, 2011, 08:33:11 PM

Considering the rotation and offense the Phillies have, the 91 wins PECOTA has them at seems kinda low. Just how much value does PECOTA put on a teams bench/depth? Not being a subscriber, I'm curious.

PECOTA tends to not project extremely good or bad seasons. I don't know its inner workings and whether there is a lot of regression to historic means. I know there is some sort of way of comparing players to historically similar players, so perhaps that has a smoothing function. I'll leave it to someone with better memory or access to their historic predictions, but I don't think you see many >95 win seasons predicted, and I am pretty sure almost every year two or three teams top that.

chemist · « **Reply #38:** February 25, 2011, 10:53:57 PM »

Quote from: 4aces?_r_u_kidding_me? on February 25, 2011, 01:55:33 PM

Hey, I was invited here by Stan Kasten.

lol. pwnt

Obed_Marsh · « **Reply #39:** February 26, 2011, 11:23:52 AM »

Quote from: meagl on February 25, 2011, 04:36:05 PM

Im not here to start anything.

You might be more popular with this avatar.

Of course, if you are planning on trolling this one might be more appropriate.

Tyler Durden · « **Reply #40:** February 26, 2011, 02:30:39 PM »

Watching MLBN now - Yanks and Phils. Just saw Dominic Brown strike out on an 89 mph fastball. Ha. I really hope he sucks.

PANatsFan · « **Reply #41:** February 26, 2011, 03:08:31 PM »

Was that JMax in RF?

I get a cookie - looks like he wont be on the DL

Vega · « **Reply #42:** February 26, 2011, 05:17:27 PM »

okkay so im siting here wacthing spirgn training an i see jmax IN RiGHT fIeld for the bankeees!!!!1/1/11 they jus wasstin theirr time jmax aint wirth npthing lol he could'nt gte a hit aggainst ron villone evn if hee tryied as he culd his bat SUckcS!!!!@1212 imean hes alriht defensvely an hee runs okk but he cuoldnt hit af rriggen BEEACHENALLq1@!@!@!!!!!@211 no WAay he maeks the yAnkees cmon son!!!12 LAC!!!!!!111212121221121112121212 makr teiexaar!!! [/Drunk Roarin Storen]

tomterp · « **Reply #43:** February 27, 2011, 08:56:14 PM »

Quote from: Kenz aFan on February 25, 2011, 08:33:11 PM

Considering the rotation and offense the Phillies have, the 91 wins PECOTA has them at seems kinda low. Just how much value does PECOTA put on a teams bench/depth? Not being a subscriber, I'm curious.

The team projections are based on pretty much the sum of the players' projections, then plugged into a simulation model that plays out the season a million times or so with those lineups. So bench players count for the expected number of at-bats they are projected to get. Same with bullpens.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #44:** February 27, 2011, 09:12:54 PM »

Tom - has PECOTA ever projected a 100 win season?

tomterp · « **Reply #45:** February 27, 2011, 09:17:03 PM »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on February 27, 2011, 09:12:54 PM

Tom - has PECOTA ever projected a 100 win season?

Depends how you define "projected". For the Phils' 91 game projection, perhaps 68,942 times they were projected to win 100 or more, but when averaged with the below 90's the average was 91. So I think there is truth that the projections tend to be more moderate, due to the methodology, but when teams play out the season, there is a lot more random variability since they are only playing 1 season each, not a 1,000,000.

Oh, but to non-answer your question, I'm having trouble finding the old projections on their site. It's kind of driving me nuts that I can't just dial it up.

PowerBoater69 · « **Reply #46:** February 27, 2011, 09:35:37 PM »

Quote from: meagl on February 24, 2011, 11:34:19 PM

Phillies (96-100 wins)- The Phillies are obviously the class of the NL East winning the last four division crowns. the Pros of this team is obviously the starting pitching. The top four are the clear cut best in MLB with Joe Blanton as the number 5 who has cleared 194 IP 5 of the last 6 years. the cons with this team could end up being a strength if Chase Utley and Ryan Howard can have a bounce back year. The big key for the Phillies offense is the 1 and 2 hitters getting on base. Rollins, Victorino and Polanco each had OBP under .330 last season. As for the bullpen Ryan Madson comes in as one of the dominate setup men in baseball, but the obvious key will be Brad Lidge. if he can spot his fastball like he did from August 1 on hell be dominate once again.

Braves (89-93 wins)- The Braves come in losing their setup and closer from last season. however gained alot of pop with Uggla coming over from Florida. The pros of this team is also pitching with a strong core of starters with Hudson, Hanson, Jurrjens, Lowe and Minor. The Braves young star Heyward will be joined by another big time prospect in 1B Freddie Freeman. The Braves lineup looks to be in the top 3rd in NL lineups, Heyward, Freeman, McCann, Uggla, Prado, and potentially Chipper Jones. Chipper coming off a knee injury will be another key to the Braves lineup. but IMO the weakness is the back end of the bullpen for Atlanta. I do like Craig Kimbrel but like Drew Storen im not sure if hes ready to take over as the closer. Johnny Venters could be another candidate, what was a big strength has now turned into a question mark. however i expect Atlanta to win the wild card.

Marlins (85-89 wins)- The Marlins traded away their 2B Uggla but got bullpen help and a much more sound defensive infielder with mike dunn and infante. One of the best offseason moves was signing Javier Vazquez, who was dominate with the Braves in 2009, and now returns to the NL, and gives the Marlins another sound rotation with stud Josh Johnson, Nolasco, Vazquez, Anibal Sanchez and Volstad. the offense is filled with talented young players and could have a tremendous 3-4 with Hanley Ramirez and Mike Stanton another super rookie NL East RFer. Morrison is a the perfect 2 hole hitter, and free agent pick up John Buck behind the plate. Weakness once again will be the bullpen, the Marlins come close to the Braves, but fall short

Mets (68-73 wins)- the Mets barely beat out the Nats for 4th. Santana is out until at least june possibly later. the rotation is shaky at best with Dickey and Pelfrey leading the way. Bay comes off a concussion, Reyes coming off a leg injury, Beltran in a contract year we all know the story with the Mets. well see if K-Rod can keep himself from assaulting family members, but overall still have a good core of position players. Mets will play for 2012 with millions coming off the books after this season

Nationals (66-71 wins)- The Nats (at the expense of one of the worst contracts ive seen) got Jayson Werth to man RF. lost Dunn but signed a very servicable 1B in LaRoche. its sad Strasburg went down or the Nats rotation wouldnt look too bad. Livan more than likely wont repeat his performance from last year, but Jordan Zimmermann comes back from TJ surgery. the middle of the order looks very good for Washington with Zimm, Werth, and LaRoche. well see if Desmond can continue to grow, and if Nyger can keep his composure this year. the Nats have shown they have the money, this year wont produce a winning record but with Strasburg and Harper on the way they should have amuch better chance come 2012.

thoughts?

Tyler Durden · « **Reply #47:** February 28, 2011, 09:43:03 AM »

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/02/28/be-happy-that-oliver-perez-got-rocked-over-the-weekend-mets-fans/

LOLiver Perez got rocked again this weekend.

Looks like the Mutts will need Young and Capuano to recover. And they need Dickey to repeat last year's performance, which I think is less likely to happen than Livan repeating his performance last year. And they need Johan to come back from shoulder surgery strong. And that's just the starting rotation.

PANatsFan · « **Reply #48:** February 28, 2011, 09:45:18 AM »

Quote from: Tyler Durden on February 28, 2011, 09:43:03 AM

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/02/28/be-happy-that-oliver-perez-got-rocked-over-the-weekend-mets-fans/

LOLiver Perez got rocked again this weekend.

Looks like the Mutts will need Young and Capuano to recover. And they need Dickey to repeat last year's performance, which I think is less likely to happen than Livan repeating his performance last year. And they need Johan to come back from shoulder surgery strong. And that's just the starting rotation.

Bonderman hasn't signed yet, has he? Too bad they are broke!

Minty Fresh · « **Reply #49:** February 28, 2011, 10:08:27 AM »

Quote from: PowerBoater69 on February 27, 2011, 09:35:37 PM

(Image removed from quote.)