The Espinosa Question: What should happen with him?

[Slateman]

He has to hit his weight. His bat is kilking the Nats, especially in the 2 he.

[welch]

Over all the games espi has played, I think he can field. A few errors are a blip. However, he cannot hit. Spends months hitting below .200, and strikes out.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

If you look at the 9 Nats with over 30 plate appearances this year, Danny is 5th in K% at 16.9%.  He's been around there for a couple of weeks.  This is roughly half of his K% of last year.  He's been bad offensively, but Ks are not his problem this year (yes, I saw Teheran in the first inning).

By the way, K% (Ks per PA) for the 9 nats with over 30 PAs this year, with BB% in parentheses:

             K%     (BB%)
ALR - 34.6%    (8.6%)

Desi - 25.3%   (3%)
RZ  - 23%        (11.5%)

Werth - 18.8% (5.9%)
Espi    - 16.9%  (3.9%)
Bryce  - 15.2%  (13.1%)
Zuki    - 15.2%  (13.6%)
Span   - 12.9%  (10.9%)

Lombo - 4.9%    (2.4%)

Gaps indicate >3% spread.

Looking at this, why not Suzuki batting second?  He's also tops in P/PA at 4.40 (Werth's 4.19, Harper's 4.13, and Span 4.09).  Lombo is 2.88, Espinosa is 3.2, and Desi is 3.47.  Why on Earth bat any of those guys 2d? 

Rendon, by the way, is 5.00 P/PA, with a K% of 26% and a BB% of 13%.

[HalfSmokes]

That seems like a good argument for Lombo batting second- don't you want a 2 hole batter who puts the ball into play to hopefully advance the lead off batter?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

That seems like a good argument for Lombo batting second- don't you want a 2 hole batter who puts the ball into play to hopefully advance the lead off batter?

No, you want a guy who gets on for your 3-4-5 hitters to knock in.  You also want a guy who makes the pitcher throw a lot of pitches to wear him down and get into the 5th- 6th -7th guy in the bullpen rather than the setup guys and the platoon split specialists.  A guy who takes pitches also lets your later hitters see the pitchers stuff early and makes the inning more difficult for him. 

Give me a guy whose offensive value is putting the ball in play later in the order when there are guys on.  Bat Lombo 7th or 8th if he plays, behind Desi.

[Ray D]

No, you want a guy who gets on for your 3-4-5 hitters to knock in.  You also want a guy who makes the pitcher throw a lot of pitches to wear him down and get into the 5th- 6th -7th guy in the bullpen rather than the setup guys and the platoon split specialists.  A guy who takes pitches also lets your later hitters see the pitchers stuff early and makes the inning more difficult for him. 

Then what do you see as the difference between a leadoff and #2 guy?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I want more SLG out of my #2 guy than my leadoff guy.  My leadoff guy I'm almost only concerned about OBP and patience. 

I want my #2 hitter to be close to my best overall hitter, only trailing the #4 in OPS and perhaps the #3.  Definitely a better hitter than #5 or lower. 

[MorseTheHorse]

I think Desmond should be somewhere #2-5, at least for the short term.  Too much concern about L-R in the lineup, and not enough about getting the guys hitting well to hit near each other.  If we must play LaRoche and Espinosa, then bat them 7 and 8. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

MTH - I'm curious - do K's frustrate you?  Desi is the #2 strikeout guy on the team, with only RZ close and ALR worse.

I don't mind Desmond's Ks too much, frankly. I would like to see him hit 5th more often, especially with RZ out.  I think his slugging-heavy, contact-dependent offense fits well there behind Harper and Werth, when there are guys to drive in. 

Desi is not a #2 hittter. He does not get on base for others and he does not work the count.  Getting him to try to take pitches gets him out of what he does well, and he has said so.  This offense last year only got going when he was moved down in the order out of #2.

[MorseTheHorse]

K's don't bother me at all if they are paired with production like Desmond has.  But I'd say you are right about Desi and the #2 slot.  So let me amend to say that he should be hitting somewhere #3-5. 

And Suzuki needs to move up in the lineup.  Possibly to that #2 slot. 

And while I'm at it, I'd have Harper bat 4th.  Batting 3rd you can be in the low leverage situation of 2 outs nobody on many games in the first (for example last night where a first inning double then didn't result in any runs).  Batting fourth you either have a guy on base (probably in scoring position) your first AB, or you lead off the second.  I think that's the basic reason why most teams have their best hitter bat fourth, and Harper is clearly our best player. 

[Ray D]

Batting fourth you either have a guy on base (probably in scoring position) your first AB, or you lead off the second.  I think that's the basic reason why most teams have their best hitter bat fourth,

Historically (the old days) you'd bat you best slugger fourth - "Clean Up" - under the (silly) assumption that the first three batters would load the bases.  I think sometime mid 1900s they threw out that theory and best slugger was moved to third in the order, on the theory that he would be sure to bat in the first inning, no matter what.

However, I agree with your analysis.

[cmdterps44]

Okay. I've been saying for a year that I was going to give Espinosa a chance. I stated that I'd like to see what he does the first month before I make any decision... It's time to bench him. Put Lombardozzi in there. Start Rendon at third until Zimmerman is back. Once Zim is back, put Rendon at 2b. Might as well let our slugging prospect get as many ABs as possible.

[¡Vamos Ramos!]

I definitely see Rendon platooning with Espinosa as a short term solution for the second base issue, and maybe a long term depending on how Zim performs defensively the rest of the year at third.

[nats2playoffs]

...Looking at this, why not Suzuki batting second?  He's also tops in P/PA at 4.40 (Werth's 4.19, Harper's 4.13, and Span 4.09).  Lombo is 2.88, Espinosa is 3.2, and Desi is 3.47.  Why on Earth bat any of those guys 2d? 

Rendon, by the way, is 5.00 P/PA, with a K% of 26% and a BB% of 13%.

Because Davey Johnson is 70 years old and all catchers are ALWAYS supposed to bat 8th.  It doesn't matter how well they hit. 

It doesn't matter if teams with good hitting catchers have them higher in the lineup.  The managers of those teams don't know what they're doing.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Frankly, I don't think Lombo has shown anything this year to convince me he's and improvement at 2d.  Really, how much better is his offensive line:

Lombo:  .250 / .268 / .325, 65 OPS+, .261 wOBA
Espinosa:  .182 / .221 / .351, 57 OPS+, .250 wOBA

Despite a couple of flubs over the weekend, Espinosa is still one of the best defenders in his position in the MLB this year and considerably better than Lombo in terms of range and arm.

This all said, I begin to look for excuses to bring Kobernus or Walters up next guy who goes on DL, and try Rendon there when I can.  If you were banging the drum to send Lombo down and call up Kobernus, I might not be giving you much of an argument.

[HalfSmokes]

.068 points of batting average is the difference between a tripple crown winner and josh willingham. I realize no one cares about average anymore, but it's hard to get an RBI with a walk, but no one care cares about RBIs either, so I guess that doesn't matter

[hammondsnats]

Frankly, I don't think Lombo has shown anything this year to convince me he's and improvement at 2d.  Really, how much better is his offensive line:

Lombo:  .250 / .268 / .325, 65 OPS+, .261 wOBA
Espinosa:  .182 / .221 / .351, 57 OPS+, .250 wOBA

Despite a couple of flubs over the weekend, Espinosa is still one of the best defenders in his position in the MLB this year and considerably better than Lombo in terms of range and arm.

This all said, I begin to look for excuses to bring Kobernus or Walters up next guy who goes on DL, and try Rendon there when I can.  If you were banging the drum to send Lombo down and call up Kobernus, I might not be giving you much of an argument.

i don't care who it is, as long as it's not the current one.

he's had so many chances to prove himself.  lombo hasn't gotten the chance to play everyday this season for the period of time espy has.  nor has rendon.  kobernus hasn't been called up yet.  i have faith in one of those guys.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Not to go too deep into general batting order theory, but the Nats offense took off in 2012 when Desmond was dropped in the order and Werth and Harper moved to #1 and #2.  This conformed more closely to current notions where your top 3 hitters should be #1, #2, and #4, with being more OBP heavy, #4 being more SLG heavy, and #2 being more balanced. 

[Tyler Durden]

Yeah, it seems like Kobernus has earned a shot here.  If nothing else, he can steal a base as a pinch runner in the late innings - something no one else has really been able to do.  He can't play 3B like Lombo, but Tracy has proven to be adequate there.

[GburgNatsFan]

I'm going to have to go look this up, but someone compared Lombo's numbers when he starts games versus when Davey inserts him into a game.

He's way better when Davey inserts him into the game.

[welch]

I think we need to consider Lombo's numbers when he starts most games for several weeks at a time: a long stretch last season. He played 3B for Ryan Z, then LF while Werth was out, then 2B in August when Desmond was out. Lombo's average dropped in September when he went to the bench.

Let Lombo learn to bunt, and he'd be a respectable number 2 hitter. Otherwise, Span, Werth, Harper, Zimmerman, LaRoche (the real LaRoche...not the imitation ALR who's been hitting for him). Maybe Lombo hits 8th? Split the catcher and pitcher, assuming most pitchers not named Edwin Jackson are slow runners. (Incidentally, I don't remember Davey batting Gary Carter 8th.  If Suzuki and Ramos could hit like Carter...)

[SkinsNDeacs]

That Espinosa is going sit for the next couple of days in favor of LomBo.

Better late than never...my wife and kid thank him.  They were growing tired of me ranting like a luntic. 

[RobDibblesGhost]

That Espinosa is going sit for the next couple of days in favor of Longbo.

Better late than never...my wife and kid thank him.  They were growing tired of me ranting like a luntic. 

 

[PowerBoater69]

Davey also mentioned that he might be available to play golf early this year.

[Dixon Ward]

hopefully lombo can take this opportunity and run with it