People (Pete Abraham) speculated that if the 4/$44MM were true for Madsen, then Paps would get 4/$56MM. Since the Madsen deal fell apart, it figures Paps gets less. Papelbon always said he was going to got o FA and seek a multi-year deal for something close to but less than Mariano. You may call BS, but he has always had a sense of history and wanted to advance the position of closer in baseball. He sees himself as Mariano's heir. Not necessarily as good a Mariano, but definitely the one who would be the top closer when Mo took a step back.
There's no way the Sox would ever lock in a closer for this kind of money, especially with Bard on the roster. It does blow a hole in their bullpen, which means they may play for Nathan or some of the other closer set up guy candidates. They also have that fat slob Bobby Jenks on the roster, so perhaps they can get good gas (fastball) rather than the gas got last year (flatulence).
