Author Topic: Follow The Prospects: Brian Goodwin, CF (Read 53237 times)

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #325:** June 03, 2014, 09:00:51 AM »

Does anyone know where his power went this year? Any reports of injury? He's gone from 14 HR in A+ and AA in 2012, to 10 HR (+2 in AFL) in 2013, to 1 after 40% of his minor league season.

He's gone from about 35% of his PAs as a BB or a K to 45% this year. The OBP is nice, with an 18% BB rate, but without a bit of keep them honest power, it is hard to see how he maintains that. I'm guessing he's got another year at AAA.

Slateman · « **Reply #326:** June 03, 2014, 02:12:58 PM »

Pitching got more difficult. Let's come back and judge in late August

blue911 · « **Reply #327:** June 03, 2014, 02:28:13 PM »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on June 03, 2014, 09:00:51 AM

Does anyone know where his power went this year? Any reports of injury? He's gone from 14 HR in A+ and AA in 2012, to 10 HR (+2 in AFL) in 2013, to 1 after 40% of his minor league season.

He's gone from about 35% of his PAs as a BB or a K to 45% this year. The OBP is nice, with an 18% BB rate, but without a bit of keep them honest power, it is hard to see how he maintains that. I'm guessing he's got another year at AAA.

He's facing a majority of starting pitchers that aren't "working on pitch X" but trying to return to the Majors, in any role.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #328:** June 03, 2014, 03:08:40 PM »

Quote from: blue911 on June 03, 2014, 02:28:13 PM

He's facing a majority of starting pitchers that aren't "working on pitch X" but trying to return to the Majors, in any role.

Shouldn't that make his walk rate go down, not up?

blue911 · « **Reply #329:** June 03, 2014, 03:38:00 PM »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on June 03, 2014, 03:08:40 PM

Shouldn't that make his walk rate go down, not up?

Nope he has to wait longer to tell if a pitch is a strike, which means a shorter swing and less power. What you want to see is if he can use his hands more to generate bat speed.

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #330:** June 14, 2014, 01:15:25 PM »

June - .316/.381/.658/1.039

Slateman · « **Reply #331:** June 14, 2014, 01:23:39 PM »

He did this last year in Double A too.

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #332:** June 14, 2014, 01:53:11 PM »

Quote from: Slateman on June 14, 2014, 01:23:39 PM

He did this last year in Double A too.

Improved as the season went on?

I find it funny so many were/are down on him... he's going to be a solid MLB'er.

welch · « **Reply #333:** June 25, 2014, 02:11:58 AM »

Goodwin looks to be sinking. Hitting .217 overall; .118 in last ten games.

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #334:** June 25, 2014, 12:20:46 PM »

Quote from: welch on June 25, 2014, 02:11:58 AM

Goodwin looks to be sinking. Hitting .217 overall; .118 in last ten games.

Your staunch dislike of Goodwin is admirable but perhaps you should move past your love of batting average when judging a hitter.

Goodwin is 23 years old. The average age of a AAA hitter is 27.1.

Goodwin has a walk rate of 16.2% which is the third highest in the International League.

Goodwin has a OBP of .348, .131 points higher than his batting average.

I know that you only look at batting average when you decide if a hitter will be a failure, but big picture, Goodwin is doing just fine and will be a solid mlb regular sooner than later.

Vega · « **Reply #335:** June 25, 2014, 12:27:43 PM »

Quote from: Lintyfresh85 on June 25, 2014, 12:20:46 PM

Your staunch dislike of Goodwin is admirable but perhaps you should move past your love of batting average when judging a hitter.

Goodwin is 23 years old. The average age of a AAA hitter is 27.1.

Goodwin has a walk rate of 16.2% which is the third highest in the International League.

Goodwin has a OBP of .348, .131 points higher than his batting average.

I know that you only look at batting average when you decide if a hitter will be a failure, but big picture, Goodwin is doing just fine and will be a solid mlb regular sooner than later.

Reminds me of some of Derek Norris' years in the Nats system. Terrible BA, but a freakishly high OBP. Welch probably didn't like him either then, but he has turned out great.

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #336:** June 25, 2014, 12:35:19 PM »

Quote from: Vega on June 25, 2014, 12:27:43 PM

Reminds me of some of Derek Norris' years in the Nats system. Terrible BA, but a freakishly high OBP. Welch probably didn't like him either then, but he has turned out great.

Well, Norris always showed a lot more power than Goodwin has so far.

I think AVG has some merit, but it's hard to solely judge a hitter on it when you're not actually seeing them play.

Burgess · « **Reply #337:** June 26, 2014, 12:15:20 AM »

Yeah goodwin doesnt seem to have the power however if he can get high OBP thats just fine and that might be one of the reason he can make the MLB

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #338:** June 26, 2014, 07:56:09 AM »

Seems like Taylor has more upside offensively and is apparently better on defense.
He might not get the walks in the big leagues if pitchers find out he can't hit.

monkeyhit · « **Reply #339:** June 26, 2014, 08:20:48 AM »

2015 lineup

Taylor Cf
Harper Lf
Souza RF
LaRoche 1B
Rendon 3B
Desmond SS
Ramos C
Walters 2B

houston-nat · « **Reply #340:** June 26, 2014, 08:33:34 AM »

Quote from: monkeyhit on June 26, 2014, 08:20:48 AM

2015 lineup

Taylor Cf
Harper Lf
Souza RF
LaRoche 1B
Rendon 3B
Desmond SS
Ramos C
Walters 2B

Where did you put Werth? And where did you put Zimmerman?

Glockypoo · « **Reply #341:** June 26, 2014, 09:05:22 AM »

Quote from: houston-nat on June 26, 2014, 08:33:34 AM

Where did you put Werth? And where did you put Zimmerman?

Rizzo traded their 1/4 of a billion in combined contracts to the Yankees for draft picks. Duh.

welch · « **Reply #342:** June 26, 2014, 11:15:16 PM »

No. I was not impressed with Derek Norris. Figured he might be better than the other minor league catchers the Nats had, but otherwise, no. Goodwn? I'd rather have Souza in CF. Last I looked, I could not find a stat that gave much hope for Goodwin. Maybe he will learn to hit. I've seen more good out fielders than guys who can hit.

Vega · « **Reply #343:** June 26, 2014, 11:52:58 PM »

Quote from: welch on June 26, 2014, 11:15:16 PM

No. I was not impressed with Derek Norris. Figured he might be better than the other minor league catchers the Nats had, but otherwise, no. Goodwn? I'd rather have Souza in CF. Last I looked, I could not find a stat that gave much hope for Goodwin. Maybe he will learn to hit. I've seen more good out fielders than guys who can hit.

OBP indicates a good eye and ability to work the count. That probably leads to more hits eventually. He's managed to keep his OBP only seven points lower than last season despite his average dropping by 35 points, which is good. The hits will come eventually, and if he adds them on top of his current OBP, he will be a supremely promising leadoff guy

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #344:** June 27, 2014, 08:05:14 AM »

Quote from: welch on June 26, 2014, 11:15:16 PM

No. I was not impressed with Derek Norris. Figured he might be better than the other minor league catchers the Nats had, but otherwise, no. Goodwn? I'd rather have Souza in CF. Last I looked, I could not find a stat that gave much hope for Goodwin. Maybe he will learn to hit. I've seen more good out fielders than guys who can hit.

Welch - I recall you saw him after his call up to Harrisburg in late 2012. It's looking like his first year in Syracuse is close to a repeat of his first half season in Harrisburg, except with a substantial improvement in his ability to draw a walk and a drop off in power.

2012 - AA - 42 Games, 186 PAs, .223 / .306 / .373, 9.7 BB%, 26.9 K%, 5 HR.
2014 - AAA - 76 Games, 309 PA, .217 / .348 / .335, 16.2 BB%, 28.2 K%, 4 HR.

In 2013, he seemed to have adjusted well to AA - .252 / .355 / .407, 12.4 BB%, 22.7 K%, 10 HR.

In the 2d half of the year, what we would want to see is a bit of a pick up in power and a drop in K%. With a drop in the K% down to 23% or so, the average will bounce back, and the OBP should go closer to .380. If he could finish with 8 - 10 HR, that should be enough "keep them honest" power to maintain a high walk rate.

welch · « **Reply #345:** August 10, 2014, 04:40:46 PM »

I was not impressed with Goodwin when I saw him in 2012 and 2013 (one game each, though). Last year, Souza and Burns seemed to crackle. Goodwin looked unhappy. So he's on the DL? What's the injury?

Slateman · « **Reply #346:** August 10, 2014, 06:02:48 PM »

Bucking fust

welch · « **Reply #347:** August 13, 2014, 01:28:14 PM »

Goodwin has not played since July 1. He's on the 7-day DL. What's wrong with him?

Burgess · « **Reply #348:** August 14, 2014, 01:38:42 PM »

I agree he doesnt have a stat that is spectacular and but he does have high OBP at times no? He is still young and I think we shouldnt count him out as a MLB regular player yet.

welch · « **Reply #349:** August 14, 2014, 01:54:30 PM »

He had a high OBP at Hagerstown in 2012. Nothing special since. Nothing special in 2013 and a weak 2014 although he seems to have been on DL since early July. What's the injury?