The Espinosa watch thread

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Even more the reason to split those two apart

[sportsfan882]

HalfSmokes:   Not saying anything to the contrary.  I'm saying he can get back to his .230 - .250 if he stops being so defensive, looking to be a little opposite field pest, and goes back to the guy who rips at the ball and tries to elevate it with some thump.  At this point, i don't even think that means more strikeouts.  His Ks are trending negatively the past week, anyway.  His average will come up once he goes back to his more natural approach.

Edit - by "take the walks when they come," I mean don't go looking for walks.  Go up looking to rip the ball.  If a walk happens, great, but don't concentrate on 6 pitch at bats, long counts, and trying for BBs.

So you think he has purposely changed his approach and is not trying to hit for power anymore? If so, that is a major problem. The majority of his offensive value is from his pop (HRs). It seems like he rarely pulls the ball anymore and doesn't square up the ball.

At least he gets to face two LH starters in the LA series

[JCA-CrystalCity]

SF - basically, yes.  Last time I pulled the numbers (reply #7), it looked like he his GB/FB ratio was dramatically different from last year.  also, at the point, his P/PA showed he was taking a not more pitches.  The latter changed a bit earlier this week, so it is still small numbers, but, anecdotally, his first at bat  looked like an example of this.

Edit - while his P/PA is now near last year's level, and his K% is also near last year's, his BB% is still 1.5 times last year, as is his strikeout looking rate.  The GB/FB is up to 1.5 from around 1.1.  All this leads me to think he is trying to look at more pitches and swinging protectively.  The one result that is indisputable is that his power  vanished.  His ISO is down to .060 from .180 or so.  His ISO has not been this low since his short season rookie ball year in Vermont.

[Tyler Durden]

He crushes Cliff Lee, so maybe he will do well against Kershaw.

[Evolution33]

It is just a sophomore slump. He will make the proper adjustments and be fine sometime in August.

[Lintyfresh85]

I don't think I've seen him hit a fastball above the belt as a left hander in the year and a half here.

Sometimes holes in swings can't be fixed.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Funny how they drop him back in the order and rips some balls.  I know there is a school that will b!tch about the 1 for 4 as being nothing, but two liners in that last at bat, one that was within a foot of a homer at least gives some anecdotal support for saying he hits better in a power slot than in the top of the order.

I'd like to see something like Lombo at 3d and batting leadoff or 2d and Espinosa at 6 tonight. Go Espi - Harper - Ramos 6 -7 -8 and there'd be a lot of pop at the bottom of the order.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

another factoid - looking at his game logs, again from Fangraphs, he went 8 games with hitting only one fly ball (4/9 - 4/17).  In that time, he struck out 9 times, and walked 6, in ~34 PAs.  That is a lot of looking.   Also, from memory, his P/PA was higher than now a week or so ago (see up thread).  It does look like he figured out his approach was wrong, or else Davey / Eckstein spoke to him.

since then, he's had at least one fly every game, his GB/FB is back to 1.0.  His Ks to BBs aren't good (2 to 10 in 30 PAs), so he has not gotten the payoff yet.

[Tyler Durden]

Desmond likes to hit at the top and Espinosa at the bottom.  Whatever - just get some damn hits.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'll settle for good contact from Espinosa. The hits and HRs will come.  Last night was the first time in a while he really hit the ball well. 

My only issue on the Desmond side is while he likes hitting leadoff, he needs to have some pop and lots of good contact to make his approach productive for the team.

[blue911]

Danny had one at bat hitting from the left side. I believe that is the very definition of SSS

[MorseTheHorse]

Funny how they drop him back in the order he goes against a LH pitcherand rips some balls. 

FTFY

[Slateman]

.203/.294/.270


Ewwwww ....

[Minty Fresh]

Danny's glove is worth keeping around as long as they get a lineup where he can bat 8th.  In this lineup where they're relying on him for offensive production he looks like a black hole. 

That turn on the DP last night was nails.

[HalfSmokes]

His glove at second isn't worth it if short is also a black hole - really with Ramos and Ankiel, up the middle isn't that great. I think second is a position that you should expect to get some offense out of, rather than short and center where the trade off is more justifiable

[JMW IV]

they really just need to make him bat Right Handed fulltime.

mindfact.

[MorseTheHorse]

they really just need to make him bat Right Handed fulltime.

mindfact.

It would be nice if Danny would swallow his pride a little bit and at least give it a try. 

[KingHarper]

espinosa couldn't hit last year but he had power. I remember first half of last year he had 17 homers... seems like he carried his second half slump into 2012

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I wonder if they are letting him hit lefty because they think they are short on lefty bats in the line up.  Assume Harper going forward, and they have an option on LaRoche.  Beyond that, most of the permanent pieces (the catchers, Desmond, RZ, Werth) are righties.  Consider Morse is around next year and either bumps LaRoche or no White Whale, and the line up is short on LHBs.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

National piling on a National, with mostly a fantasy focus:

Danny Espinosa (60%, -28%, 38%) – Danny has always had problems making contact with the ball (26% career K%). In 2012, his K% has gone up to 30%. The reason for the change is a 4% point jump in his O-Swing% and a 2% drop in is O-Contact%.

It is fine to have a 30% K% if the player is adding other value with his bat. Danny is adding very little value. His triple slash line is currently at 0.205/0.300/0.269. Those values are just not going to cut it. His 2012 BABIP (0.294) is above his career average, so it is not causing the decline. His main problem is his declining home runs numbers. Here are his 3 year trends in FB% and HR/FB

Stat: 2010, 2011, 2012
FB%: 46%, 40%, 31%
HR/FB: 18%, 14%, 6%

Less fly balls + Less HRs per fly ball = Less HRs

I see no hope right now for Danny. He needs to make improvement in his plate discipline and/or power stroke to become an everyday player at 2B in deep leagues, not alone 10 to 14 team leagues.

[Rasta]

Any chance pitchers have just figured him out?  Anyone done any research on the types of pitches he is seeing in his AB's? 

Right now he's just painful to watch.  What if both Desmond & Espinosa aren't long term answers?  And there's no guarantee that Lombo will pan out.   Ouch.

[nobleisthyname]

What if both Desmond & Espinosa aren't long term answers?  And there's no guarantee that Lombo will pan out.   Ouch.

I'm already convinced that Desmond will never be long term answer at short. If his better glove work this season keeps up he'd only be worth a number eight hitter in my opinion. I'm not entirely ready to give up on Espi just yet and I love his glove, but he has been by far and away the biggest disappointment of the season so far.

[Lintyfresh85]

What if?

Desmond has done nothing in three years.

Espinoa for a year straight now.

[aspenbubba]

Right now he's just painful to watch.  What if both Desmond & Espinosa aren't long term answers?  And there's no guarantee that Lombo will pan out.   Ouch.

Kobernus, Skole , Rendon and Hague  are all viable replacements and you will start seeing them next year. Rendon could have been a September call up except for his ankle.

[Lintyfresh85]

Skole? The guy that will be lucky to stick at 3B due to size/range? Highly doubtful.