Author Topic: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP  (Read 141493 times)

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Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #550: January 11, 2014, 04:56:14 PM »
If he was the better prospect, he would have been drafted or rated at high as these other guys.

He might be a better pitcher in the end, as everyone knows. But he's not the better prospect now.

Giolito was drafted 16th and rated 67 by BA in his first season.

Turner was drafted 9th and rated 26.
Bumgarner was drafted 10th and rated 9.
Taillon was drafted 2nd and rated 11.
Wheeler was drafted 2nd and rated 11.
Parker and Wheeler were closest and they were drafted in the top 10 and rated in the top 50.

You can ignore the elbow reconstruction all you want, Mrs. Lincoln.

Offline welch

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #551: January 12, 2014, 12:30:50 AM »
Who knows how quickly Giolito can progress, if at all? Josh Smoker and Jack McGeary were can't-miss prospects, proof that The Plan was working. Things happpen. Von McDaniel was brilliant in his first season with the Cardinals. Lindy and Von, great story. Von forgot how to throw and that was that. Ugly things happen. Herb Score. Mark Fidrych. I haven't seen many young pitchers throw as well as Tom Cheney...you can look him up. Jerry Koosman made it all the way, star thrower for the Mets, better than Seaver, but hurt his arm. Later won a lot of games because he had learned how to pitch.

Smokey Joe Wood: only pitcher thought to throw almost as hard as Johnson. Threw is arm away. Can't predict.

Offline TigerFan

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #552: January 16, 2014, 10:09:42 PM »
If he was the better prospect, he would have been drafted or rated at high as these other guys.

He might be a better pitcher in the end, as everyone knows. But he's not the better prospect now.

Giolito was drafted 16th and rated 67 by BA in his first season.

Turner was drafted 9th and rated 26.
Bumgarner was drafted 10th and rated 9.
Taillon was drafted 2nd and rated 11.
Wheeler was drafted 2nd and rated 11.
Parker and Wheeler were closest and they were drafted in the top 10 and rated in the top 50.

You can ignore the elbow reconstruction all you want, Mrs. Lincoln.

Wait, so no one was ever drafted out of order for how they progressed or what they ultimately became?

Offline houston-nat

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #553: January 16, 2014, 10:13:15 PM »
Wait, so no one was ever drafted out of order for how they progressed or what they ultimately became?
Nope! Come on, don't you remember when Mike Trout was drafted before the first pick?

Offline TigerFan

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #554: January 16, 2014, 10:44:55 PM »
Nope! Come on, don't you remember when Mike Trout was drafted before the first pick?

But Storen's dad says the pick is legit right?  BTW not that it translates to anything but Trout can jump (upstream?) http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/01/mike-trouts-box-jump-will-blow-your-mind-and-possibly-your-quadriceps/

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #555: January 17, 2014, 11:24:47 AM »
Wait, so no one was ever drafted out of order for how they progressed or what they ultimately became?

No, the point is that Giolito has not "ultimately become" anything yet. If the draft was the only point of reference, you'd be right. But people are putting together their 2014 prospect lists RIGHT NOW, that include Giolito's 2013 comeback, and he's still not rated ahead of these other guys.

I mean, how else are we measuring who's a better "prospect" other than by prospect lists?

FYI, I'm glad that on "TigerFans Top Prospects List" Giolito is number 1. Unfortunately, that's not how the rest of the professional scouting community sees it.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #556: January 17, 2014, 11:28:28 AM »
There are a lot of scouts saying that by the end of the year, Giolito could be a top 5 prospect, if he doesn't have any health issues and continues to progress and impress. Ignoring the "if" part of it is ridiculous.


Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #557: January 17, 2014, 12:22:45 PM »
Among Giolito, Cole, Jordan, Mooneyham, Solis, Purke and Karns, we should end up with at least 2 solid starters by 2016 and maybe a relief pitcher or two.  We were able to trade Meyer and Ray because we had so many solid pitching prospects. 

So even if Giolito flames out we are still in good shape.


Offline Terpfan76

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #558: January 17, 2014, 01:21:35 PM »
There are a lot of scouts saying that by the end of the year, Giolito could be a top 5 prospect, if he doesn't have any health issues and continues to progress and impress. Ignoring the "if" part of it is ridiculous.




Who's ignoring the risk? At this point, coming back from TJ surgery isn't all that big a deal all things considered. Now when you add in Giolito's age, it becomes a little more concerning but at the same time, you'd think a kid would recover a lot faster than an adult. All that aside, most of the teams drafting ahead of the Nats weren't in the position to take a risk on a HS kid that would probably have to sit a year due to an injury slowing his progress. Most of those teams needed players that would make an impact within perhaps 2 years. Were Giolito coming in 100%, I think it's quite fair to say he'd have been the #1 pick or probably at least a top 3 pick. The fact that he went 16th overall knowing he had a good chance of needing surgery says about all I need to know about his prospect status. Should he pick up where he left off last season considering the small sample size of course, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him listed in the top 3 prospects.


Offline welch

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #559: January 17, 2014, 10:04:24 PM »
It is certain that Giolito:

- might be the best kid pitcher since Mark Fidrych and Herb Score

- might never make the majors, or

- might turn out better than Strassburg.

The baseball prediction entertainers can't see the future. I'm happy that Little Gio will start throwing again in a month or two, and then will pitch 100 or so innings down in A-ball where nobody will measure how deep he breathes between pitches.

Offline imref

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #560: January 17, 2014, 10:33:31 PM »
I just want to see him at potomac.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #561: January 18, 2014, 03:55:46 PM »
Who knows how quickly Giolito can progress, if at all? Josh Smoker and Jack McGeary were can't-miss prospects, proof that The Plan was working. Things happpen. Von McDaniel was brilliant in his first season with the Cardinals. Lindy and Von, great story. Von forgot how to throw and that was that. Ugly things happen. Herb Score. Mark Fidrych. I haven't seen many young pitchers throw as well as Tom Cheney...you can look him up. Jerry Koosman made it all the way, star thrower for the Mets, better than Seaver, but hurt his arm. Later won a lot of games because he had learned how to pitch.

Smokey Joe Wood: only pitcher thought to throw almost as hard as Johnson. Threw is arm away. Can't predict.

Of course you can't really predict, especially when injuries are so common and often devastating to a career.  That's why you need LOTS of good prospects, to improve your odds of a few helping you out.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #562: January 24, 2014, 08:24:10 AM »
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/ number 44

Quote
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 80 | Curveball: 65 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall: 60
Giolito was considered to be the top prep pitcher in the 2012 Draft class until a sprained ulnar collateral ligament shut him down in early March. The Nationals made him the No. 16 overall pick anyway, signing him to a well-above slot deal. Giolito made one professional appearance before undergoing Tommy John surgery. He returned to the mound in July of 2013 and showed the same premium stuff that first got the attention of scouts.

Giolito throws his fastball in the mid- to upper-90s, often reaching 100 mph. He throws a hard, 12-to-6 curveball that is almost as good as his fastball. His changeup isn't as well developed as his other two pitches, but it has the potential to be a third above-average Major League offering. He has good command and an advanced feel for pitching.

If he can stay healthy, Giolito has as much potential as any pitcher in the Minor Leagues.


Offline Glockypoo

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #563: January 27, 2014, 09:26:36 AM »
Baseball Prospectus ranks Giolito at #13 (wow!), Cole #53 and Goodwin #86.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22670

Just as an FYI, Giolito is ranked ahead of Taillon and Bundy.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #564: January 27, 2014, 10:23:46 AM »
I just want to see him at potomac.
Me too.  I don't think he will be at Hagerstown very long although I know the Nats don't want to rush him.  I have read somewhere on the internet that it would not be surprising to see him up in September of this year. Other posters here say no way he will be in DC until 2016 I think he will be up late 2015. 

Offline Terpfan76

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #565: January 27, 2014, 04:53:42 PM »
Me too.  I don't think he will be at Hagerstown very long although I know the Nats don't want to rush him.  I have read somewhere on the internet that it would not be surprising to see him up in September of this year. Other posters here say no way he will be in DC until 2016 I think he will be up late 2015. 

If he were to absolutely dominate Hagersburg/Potomac then I could see him getting to Harrisburg this year but that's it. And when I say dominate, I mean to a point where he's actually doing himself a disservice staying in A ball. 

You think he'll get any Spring Training action?

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #566: January 27, 2014, 09:21:14 PM »
I would say no.   

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #567: January 27, 2014, 09:50:53 PM »
If he were to absolutely dominate Hagersburg/Potomac then I could see him getting to Harrisburg this year but that's it. And when I say dominate, I mean to a point where he's actually doing himself a disservice staying in A ball. 

You think he'll get any Spring Training action?
Does he have a big league contract? If he does, I wouldn't be shocked to see him get an appearance before sending him to minor league camp.

Offline blue911

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #568: January 27, 2014, 11:46:58 PM »
Does he have a big league contract? If he does, I wouldn't be shocked to see him get an appearance before sending him to minor league camp.

No major league contracts anymore. Too easy to skirt the slot bonus.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #569: January 28, 2014, 12:39:38 AM »
Does he have a big league contract? If he does, I wouldn't be shocked to see him get an appearance before sending him to minor league camp.

New CBA took away major league contracts for draftees.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #570: February 19, 2014, 04:05:24 PM »
https://twitter.com/ProfessorParks/status/436244060643524608

Quote
Scouting reports on Lucas Giolito should only be read in the shower with the door locked. Future: 80 FB, 80 CB, 70 CH. #nats

Offline blue911

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Offline blue911

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #572: February 21, 2014, 03:45:32 PM »
Quote
The Year Ahead: On paper, Giolito has the highest ceiling of any arm in the minors, and that list includes Taijuan Walker and Archie Bradley. It’s an almost irresponsible combination of size and stuff, a 6’6’’ power righty who can sit in the mid-upper-90s with a lively fastball and back it up with an unhittable hard curveball that can show intense vertical depth. He’s not far removed from Tommy John surgery and the command profile needs refinement, but the 19-year-old arm should dominate at the A-ball level in 2014, and when the Nationals take the governor off the semi in 2015, Giolito should erupt into the premier arm in baseball, if he doesn’t already have claim on that distinction after his full-season debut. This is what it looks like, folks. This is a future no. 1 starter at the major-league level.


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22872

Offline mrgoyette

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #573: February 25, 2014, 01:16:57 PM »
2 things I'm watching with Giolito 1) BB/9 and 2) health. Given his ++fastball/++curve/change arsenal he should always produce Ks. His BB/9 (2.6) was good last year, let's see if he can replicate it against better competition this year before we anoint him. If it goes well, September '14 call-up/chance for job out of spring training '15 seems likely to me (he would be 3 years removed from TJS by then).

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #574: February 25, 2014, 01:24:26 PM »
I don't think you do the sort of Bundy / Price move of the late call up and insertion into the bullpen for the pennant sstretch this year.  he'll get the JZ/SS innings limit throwing regular starts.  He's still awful young.