Author Topic: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion  (Read 20897 times)

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Offline Monarch

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Re: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion
« Reply #25: April 24, 2015, 12:24:25 PM »
Storen has only had 5 opportunities! We can barely get him the ball, and when we do, it's 80%

true, but until he proves otherwise (he may never) I'm never going to feel confident with him if its only a 1-run game.

Offline BeltwayBaseball

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Re: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion
« Reply #26: April 24, 2015, 12:25:19 PM »
Stammen's loss was pretty huge, though I don't think anybody was really thinking about him going into the season, he looked fantastic to start the year, and his absence has suddenly magnified an already worrying problem.

I agree Thornton should be getting more innings, particularly as part of the "A" bullpen. Make him the full-time setup man. His splits are absolutely fine.

The problem with Treinen (and unfortunately, I believe it's the same problem with Roark) is that lefties crush them - both have an OPS of over 1000. This is why I don't think switching Treinen for Roark will make a huge difference, except that Roark has perhaps a better mental makeup and more big league experience, so perhaps he will just pitch around lefties.

Barrett is 27, if he's a project he's going to be a late bloomer and be Thornton in ten years. He's likely just going to be Mitch Williams, effectively wild. How'd that work in 1993? Martin, Rivero, Grace - who knows what they're worth. Same goes for Janssen, track record be damned, he had a weird second half last year, has declined in years and is starting the year with injury.

I like the idea of getting Papelbon or Chapman - we really never know what we have with Storen. Papelbon is still fantastic, google "Papelbon" and read the first story that pops up, written today for MSNBC. Chapman would probably be cheaper just because Amaro is a madman, and the Reds are likely dealing him and Cueto come July.

I think the team is okay as it is, I have confidence in them taking the division as soon as the Mets' problems catch up with them. But we're not talking about the regular season, everyone here is expecting great things, and both times we've missed our chance due to bullpen issues. So this feels like a pretty big problem.

Offline whytev

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Re: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion
« Reply #27: April 24, 2015, 12:27:37 PM »
right now, I'd consider using Barrett and Thornton as my prime 7th and 8th inning guys, spotting in Grace as a LOOGY and Martin v. righties.  Martin is a K guy.  I'd use Treinen in the old Stammen role, and Roark as the long man / extra inning man.

Thornton is harder to slot in to his own inning because he often gets burned on matchups to get out of a jam. Saving him means if the starter is in hot water in the 6th with a tough lefty and runners on, you get a repeat of that game in Boston where they had poor Cedeño in a bases loaded situation.

Offline whytev

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Re: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion
« Reply #28: April 24, 2015, 12:29:03 PM »
to get chapman we are gonna have to part with at least one of taylor, turner and cole plus another mid tier prospect like fedde, difo or ross. i wouldnt be surprised if the reds kept chapman and just tried to turn him into a starter next year

Cole and Ross? Too much? Start Treinen and Roark next year after the two F.A.s leave?

How many years does Chapman have left?

Offline whytev

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Re: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion
« Reply #29: April 24, 2015, 12:30:39 PM »
true, but until he proves otherwise (he may never) I'm never going to feel confident with him if its only a 1-run game.

Until our starters heat up and start throwing 7+ innings, I dunno.

Zimmermann and Strasburg have that in them. Fister sometimes. Gonzalez and Scherzer almost never.

Offline PC

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Re: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion
« Reply #30: April 24, 2015, 12:32:46 PM »
Cole and Ross? Too much? Start Treinen and Roark next year after the two F.A.s leave?

How many years does Chapman have left?

Chapman is a free agent after next year.

Offline whytev

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Re: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion
« Reply #31: April 24, 2015, 12:32:57 PM »
Stammen's loss was pretty huge, though I don't think anybody was really thinking about him going into the season, he looked fantastic to start the year, and his absence has suddenly magnified an already worrying problem.

I agree Thornton should be getting more innings, particularly as part of the "A" bullpen. Make him the full-time setup man. His splits are absolutely fine.

The problem with Treinen (and unfortunately, I believe it's the same problem with Roark) is that lefties crush them - both have an OPS of over 1000. This is why I don't think switching Treinen for Roark will make a huge difference, except that Roark has perhaps a better mental makeup and more big league experience, so perhaps he will just pitch around lefties.

Barrett is 27, if he's a project he's going to be a late bloomer and be Thornton in ten years. He's likely just going to be Mitch Williams, effectively wild. How'd that work in 1993? Martin, Rivero, Grace - who knows what they're worth. Same goes for Janssen, track record be damned, he had a weird second half last year, has declined in years and is starting the year with injury.

I like the idea of getting Papelbon or Chapman - we really never know what we have with Storen. Papelbon is still fantastic, google "Papelbon" and read the first story that pops up, written today for MSNBC. Chapman would probably be cheaper just because Amaro is a madman, and the Reds are likely dealing him and Cueto come July.

I think the team is okay as it is, I have confidence in them taking the division as soon as the Mets' problems catch up with them. But we're not talking about the regular season, everyone here is expecting great things, and both times we've missed our chance due to bullpen issues. So this feels like a pretty big problem.

I love Thornton, but for goodness sake he's older than I am! Will putting way more innings on that arm kill him before the stretch run?

Offline whytev

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Re: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion
« Reply #32: April 24, 2015, 12:33:43 PM »
Chapman is a free agent after next year.

That's what I thought, but the Reds "keeping" him comment confused me.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion
« Reply #33: April 24, 2015, 12:37:42 PM »
I'm willing to use the "it's early" argument for hitting and even fielding. And for Fister/Zimmermann not looking sharp. But if you use it for the bullpen to it starts to look like denial.

At the very least, we need to go after someone who can replace Stammen's innings with a consistent sub 3 ERA. Harder than it sounds.

My original point is that any 2 of these youngsters can step up, but hoping 4 or 5 do is a stretch.

then put AJ Cole in there. The bull pen hasn't been nearly as bad as people are making it out to be. Storen's a head case, Trienan is struggling nd Stammen is injured, but most guys are looking at least ok

Offline tswphoto

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Re: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion
« Reply #34: April 24, 2015, 12:44:44 PM »
then put AJ Cole in there. The bull pen hasn't been nearly as bad as people are making it out to be. Storen's a head case, Trienan is struggling nd Stammen is injured, but most guys are looking at least ok

In those 7 leads lost by the 'pen, how many runs did they have to give up to earn the loss?  Seems to me our hitters (not to mention fielders . . . ) are demanding nigh-on-perfection from the 'pen (and rotation), which isn't helping matters.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion
« Reply #35: April 24, 2015, 12:50:26 PM »
Fister, Gio and Zimmermann have worse ERAs than any other relievers on the team except Treinen are you as concerned about them as Roark and Storen?

Offline PC

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Re: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion
« Reply #36: April 24, 2015, 12:52:49 PM »
then put AJ Cole in there. The bull pen hasn't been nearly as bad as people are making it out to be. Storen's a head case, Trienan is struggling nd Stammen is injured, but most guys are looking at least ok

the bullpen gave up five runs against the Cardinals.  The Cardinals bullpen gave up one run against us.  Our bullpen was very bad against the Cardinals.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion
« Reply #37: April 24, 2015, 12:55:48 PM »
the bullpen gave up five runs against the Cardinals.  The Cardinals bullpen gave up one run against us.  Our bullpen was very bad against the Cardinals.

you're right, they gave up five runs over the course of a series comprising a little less than 2% of the season, time to throw in the towel

Offline BeltwayBaseball

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Re: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion
« Reply #38: April 24, 2015, 01:04:33 PM »
I love Thornton, but for goodness sake he's older than I am! Will putting way more innings on that arm kill him before the stretch run?

If they haven't already I don't know why they would now, unless it's a matter of age and stamina, not arm health. I understand your earlier point about being able to use Thornton as our "get out of a jam guy" - a role in which he excels. But if that's the case, then they need to leave him to complete the next inning. I would rather have a strikeout guy to get out of a jam, anyway, Thornton's K-rate has been below 20% for 3 years and isn't going to explode now. Honestly, I think we need Grace or Martin to pan out and Janssen to come back healthy and strong if we don't want to make any moves.

Offline Slateman

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Re: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion
« Reply #39: April 24, 2015, 01:11:04 PM »
Cole and Ross? Too much? Start Treinen and Roark next year after the two F.A.s leave?

How many years does Chapman have left?
If that's all it takes, that's a steal. That's two years of the best closer in baseball for a team that is expected to go to the World Series. Oh and then we get a draft pick if he goes free agent.

Start Roark and a free agent next season. Never use Treinen again.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion
« Reply #40: April 24, 2015, 01:11:46 PM »
The problem with Treinen (and unfortunately, I believe it's the same problem with Roark) is that lefties crush them - both have an OPS of over 1000.
Tell me you didn't just bring up his lefty split over the 19 lefties he's faced this year? I'm not even sure last year's <.800 lefty split is a large enough sample to be meaningful over 103 batters faced.

Offline Slateman

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Re: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion
« Reply #41: April 24, 2015, 01:17:18 PM »
Tell me you didn't just bring up his lefty split over the 19 lefties he's faced this year? I'm not even sure last year's <.800 lefty split is a large enough sample to be meaningful over 103 batters faced.

26.1 innings against LH hitters: .339/.377/.452

Roark: 123 innings, .241/.299/.377

Offline BeltwayBaseball

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Re: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion
« Reply #42: April 24, 2015, 01:31:00 PM »
Tell me you didn't just bring up his lefty split over the 19 lefties he's faced this year? I'm not even sure last year's <.800 lefty split is a large enough sample to be meaningful over 103 batters faced.

I believe that's his major league career, which granted, only includes another 22 or so IP vs. lefties. However, his minors lefty splits aren't much better, about .800 flat. Against righties, though, he's insane - career .548 OPS, again, minors, if we're going to say that his MLB time is small sample.

So, historically, Treinen has struggled badly against lefties, period. And I don't know if he's able to pitch around them in lefty-heavy lineups like the Cards were featuring.

As for Roark, I don't know much about his stats, but it's almost fair to say everything with him could be an aberration - he was lousy in 2012, I think, ~4.5 ERA or something, then he just magically put it together for 2013 and 2014. So I don't know what to think at all for him.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion
« Reply #43: April 24, 2015, 01:36:03 PM »
26.1 innings against LH hitters: .339/.377/.452

Roark: 123 innings, .241/.299/.377
2014  is what I mentioned when I said <.800.  .337 / .369 / .429.  OPS of .798 over 22 IP / 103 LH batters.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=12572&position=P&season=2014

Not denying he's had a rough 19 batters / 4.1 innings v. lefty batters this year.  Just don't think it is meaningful to use those splits for projections at this point.  I don't think you can even use his 2014 + 2015 yet when he's faced just 122 lefty batters.

Rather than talk stats v. lefties, why not just say "he's a sinker balling righty.  Those guys are going to give up hits to lefties." and leave it without the statistical abuse? 

Offline NatsinFla

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Re: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion
« Reply #44: April 24, 2015, 01:36:10 PM »
Ive been trying to be as big of a homer as I can and say that everythings gonna work out but im not gonna Lie the strikeouts and the Bullpen sure dont make us look like a team that is going to get much done...

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion
« Reply #45: April 24, 2015, 01:41:42 PM »
I believe that's his major league career, which granted, only includes another 22 or so IP vs. lefties. However, his minors lefty splits aren't much better, about .800 flat. Against righties, though, he's insane - career .548 OPS, again, minors, if we're going to say that his MLB time is small sample.

So, historically, Treinen has struggled badly against lefties, period. And I don't know if he's able to pitch around them in lefty-heavy lineups like the Cards were featuring.

As for Roark, I don't know much about his stats, but it's almost fair to say everything with him could be an aberration - he was lousy in 2012, I think, ~4.5 ERA or something, then he just magically put it together for 2013 and 2014. So I don't know what to think at all for him.
MLB career ops is .829.  vs. lefties (slate posted his numbers / they match the FG split page).

So the minors numbers are close to what he did last year in the majors.  Maybe his start is an aberration?  I agree with you, though, that he should not be expected to have much success against lefties consistently in the majors, and that when you get a stretch with Carpenter, Heyward, and Adams 1, 2, 4, he's not a good guy for the match ups, and that was how he was used yesterday.

Offline Slateman

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Re: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion
« Reply #46: April 24, 2015, 01:43:40 PM »
2014  is what I mentioned when I said <.800.  .337 / .369 / .429.  OPS of .798 over 22 IP / 103 LH batters.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=12572&position=P&season=2014

Not denying he's had a rough 19 batters / 4.1 innings v. lefty batters this year.  Just don't think it is meaningful to use those splits for projections at this point.  I don't think you can even use his 2014 + 2015 yet when he's faced just 122 lefty batters.

Rather than talk stats v. lefties, why not just say "he's a sinker balling righty.  Those guys are going to give up hits to lefties." and leave it without the statistical abuse? 

He's a sinker ball with no control over his slider who has a tendency to leave his sinker up.

Offline Monarch

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Re: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion
« Reply #47: April 24, 2015, 02:38:22 PM »
Ive been trying to be as big of a homer as I can and say that everythings gonna work out but im not gonna Lie the strikeouts and the Bullpen sure dont make us look like a team that is going to get much done...

I'm with you. can't hit. can't field and BP is pretty bad too. lot of things need to be fixed so far in this young season.

Offline Expos

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Re: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion
« Reply #48: April 24, 2015, 05:10:09 PM »
then put AJ Cole in there. The bull pen hasn't been nearly as bad as people are making it out to be. Storen's a head case, Trienan is struggling nd Stammen is injured, but most guys are looking at least ok

7 games out of our first 15 games the pen has blown a lead. That is beyond bad. That is pathetic.

Offline Expos

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Re: The 2015 Bullpen Discussion
« Reply #49: April 24, 2015, 09:53:15 PM »
After tonight's loss the pen has given up the Lead after the 6th inning for the 8th time in 17 games.

Imagine our record if our bullpen didn't lose 8 games.

Something has to be done and soon.