Author Topic: Extend Desmond (Read 63193 times)

NJ Ave · « **Reply #100:** February 17, 2015, 01:35:46 PM »

But if he gets $150 million, I'll be happy. In my opinion that'll mean he just had a 5 win season in 2015.

HalfSmokes · « **Reply #101:** February 17, 2015, 02:20:19 PM »

Quote from: NJ Ave on February 17, 2015, 01:33:58 PM

For example, Dan Szymborski calculated an 8/$181 million contract for Robinson Cano, but that was based on an inflation rate of 4% (low for recent baseball salaries) and a per-win cost of $4.9 million, which was 20-25% below what wins actually cost last offseason.

Based on a per-win cost of $6 million (which is what it was last offseason, if not higher) and inflation of 5% (still conservative for recent baseball history), you get a 10-year valuation of...$243 million.

These valuations have been pretty good in recent history.

So I don't know. There have certainly been busts that LOOKED like bad deals in retrospect - BJ Upton, Carl Crawford, etc - but there aren't a lot of deals being made that are indefensible AT THE TIME. Considering paying Desmond $150 million for 7 years would be (in addition to 1-2 years too long, probably) maybe a 20% premium over what any sane projection would value him at, and that would be a pretty huge overpay for recent baseball history, in which most seemingly huge contracts are still defensible by reasonable projections.

so you can have a 20-25% increase in what a win is worth in one offseason, but you think that Desmond is worth only $108 million based on win value from last offseason?

PC · « **Reply #102:** February 17, 2015, 02:35:52 PM »

Also, don't forget how much teams are struggling for offense now and that Desmond is a premium offensive player at a position that doesn't produce a lot of offense, generally. At this point in the history of the game, it's probably wiser to spend big dollars for offense than it is for pitching.

If he has a particularly good season (30HRs, fewer Ks, higher BA/OBP...which I think he will), he might get very close to that $200m.

NJ Ave · « **Reply #103:** February 17, 2015, 02:37:32 PM »

I think I spelled out all my assumptions, so you're free to actually read them.

Desmond is worth $108 million with a $7 million/win cost and a starting point of a 3.5 win player in 2016. If you think that is significantly off, feel free to say why. His batting average, OBP, and slugging have all decreased 3 straight seasons, while his K-rate has gone up significantly. He's also a pretty good runner and an okay defender, but his strengths in those areas are unlikely to improve (since they're based on raw athleticism) as he ages. He was worth 4.1 wins last year, is past his peak most likely, and a 3.5 win projection for 2016 assumes a pretty modest decrease next season similar to last season.

It's possible someone will pay him like a 5-win player, or that the cost of doing business will skyrocket next offseason and he'll get $150 million. I have no idea. Like I said, I would welcome it, because it would mean he bounces back next season. If he continues an offensive decline for a 4th straight year, there's no way he gets close to $150 million.

houston-nat · « **Reply #104:** February 17, 2015, 02:53:32 PM »

Quote from: NJ Ave on February 17, 2015, 02:37:32 PM

Desmond is worth $108 million with a $7 million/win cost and a starting point of a 3.5 win player in 2016.

Do you think $7 million/win is still reasonable? Max Scherzer just signed for $10 million per projected win over the course of his contract, if you assume he starts at 4.5 WAR.

I think it may be about 8 per and Desmond will basically get the Jayson Werth contract. I'm anti-extension cuz I think Desmond won't age as well as Werth has.

HalfSmokes · « **Reply #105:** February 17, 2015, 02:55:57 PM »

Quote from: NJ Ave on February 17, 2015, 02:37:32 PM

I think I spelled out all my assumptions, so you're free to actually read them.

Desmond is worth $108 million with a $7 million/win cost and a starting point of a 3.5 win player in 2016. If you think that is significantly off, feel free to say why. His batting average, OBP, and slugging have all decreased 3 straight seasons, while his K-rate has gone up significantly. He's also a pretty good runner and an okay defender, but his strengths in those areas are unlikely to improve (since they're based on raw athleticism) as he ages. He was worth 4.1 wins last year, is past his peak most likely, and a 3.5 win projection for 2016 assumes a pretty modest decrease next season similar to last season.

It's possible someone will pay him like a 5-win player, or that the cost of doing business will skyrocket next offseason and he'll get $150 million. I have no idea. Like I said, I would welcome it, because it would mean he bounces back next season. If he continues an offensive decline for a 4th straight year, there's no way he gets close to $150 million.

I guess it comes down to the cost of a win. Last year, fangraphs put the cost between $5 million and $7 million http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-cost-of-a-win-in-the-2014-off-season/ but there were massive outliers (not counting the ridiculous like Morse at $30 million per WAR) - Cano at 9.4, Pence at 10.1, Choo at 8.7, Ellsbury at 8.1... of all the guys who got more than five years (which Desmond should achieve), only McCann was within the average. My takeaway is that if you are an in demand free agent, the standard cost/war doesn't really apply

PC · « **Reply #106:** February 17, 2015, 03:13:59 PM »

Quote from: HalfSmokes on February 17, 2015, 02:55:57 PM

My takeaway is that if you are an in demand free agent, the standard cost/war doesn't really apply

That's my point, exactly.

whytev · « **Reply #107:** February 17, 2015, 04:18:49 PM »

Quote from: NJ Ave on February 17, 2015, 01:20:52 PM

I don't know how true this is, anymore, at least for individual players. Both teams may sign a lot of free agents in the future, but there have not been a lot of huge overpays in recent years. People point to Cano, but I believe if you age Cano in the same way, he's actually worth that contract. And there's a lot of reasons to think a guy like Cano will age offensively better than Desmond.

Cano was an excellent signing. Desmond won't be.

Escobar, Espinosa, Turner, Difo...we'll make it work without him. Give that money to Rendon.

whytev · « **Reply #108:** February 17, 2015, 04:20:35 PM »

Quote from: PC on February 17, 2015, 02:35:52 PM

Also, don't forget how much teams are struggling for offense now and that Desmond is a premium offensive player at a position that doesn't produce a lot of offense, generally. At this point in the history of the game, it's probably wiser to spend big dollars for offense than it is for pitching.

If he has a particularly good season (30HRs, fewer Ks, higher BA/OBP...which I think he will), he might get very close to that $200m.

What if he declines in average and homers just a little, and increases strikeouts and errors just a little? It will signal his decline rather than an off year.

NJ Ave · « **Reply #109:** February 17, 2015, 04:26:36 PM »

Dave Cameron uses a methodology that penalizes better players for being better, by using a percentage of previous year (thus, if you're better you decline by more every year than if you're worse). I have yet to see something that shows that making sense. I don't see why it wouldn't be just as likely that if you're a better player, you're able to retain MORE of your skill as a percentage every year, rather than less.

So guys like Cano are penalized by 15% in their age-31 year, which seems pretty punitive if you're talking about a 6-win player (declines to a 4.3 win player in 2 years).

So that pretty drastically impacts the aging curve and $/WAR.

However, if you all want to be argumentative and point out a Fangraphs methodology, I could also point our they're using Steamer, and Steamer has Desmond projected at 2.9 WINS next year, while I gave him 3.5 or 4 for 2016. So if we want to give more credit for $/WAR, you should also start out from a MUCH lower starting point.

NJ Ave · « **Reply #110:** February 17, 2015, 04:29:58 PM »

If you use Cameron's methodology and start at Steamer's 2.9 WAR, for example, and use $8 million/win, you get 7/$116.

NJ Ave · « **Reply #111:** February 17, 2015, 04:30:39 PM »

$9 million/win and Cameron's methodology would be 7/$131.

Slateman · « **Reply #112:** February 17, 2015, 06:15:36 PM »

Quote from: NJ Ave on February 17, 2015, 01:35:46 PM

But if he gets $150 million, I'll be happy. In my opinion that'll mean he just had a 5 win season in 2015.

Yep. Put up or shut up seasons for a lot of guys on the team this season.

CALSGR8 · « **Reply #113:** February 18, 2015, 02:34:56 AM »

Cano an excellent signing? Pfft!

whytev · « **Reply #114:** March 13, 2015, 07:43:08 PM »

Stay nerd article concludes Desmond got worse: http://t.co/2S59zpT53X

WashingtonWizards23 · « **Reply #115:** March 14, 2015, 10:00:24 AM »

We dont need him. Turner or Difo will be ready 2017 season. We also have espinosa and escobar next year.

whytev · « **Reply #116:** April 06, 2015, 08:22:25 PM »

Desmond is going to find himself in a bidding war for more money than he could have dreamed of...from teams that want to move him to a different position.

That's my prediction.

I'm calling it right now.

tomterp · « **Reply #117:** April 06, 2015, 09:36:20 PM »

Quote from: whytev on April 06, 2015, 08:22:25 PM

Desmond is going to find himself in a bidding war for more money than he could have dreamed of...from teams that want to move him to a different position.

That's my prediction.

I'm calling it right now.

He sure impressed bidders today.

rbw5t · « **Reply #118:** April 06, 2015, 09:45:33 PM »

It seems like his defense sucks every April... and then he seems to get it together by May. Hopefully a few lost games won't end up costing us, but you never know.

Slateman · « **Reply #119:** April 06, 2015, 10:39:03 PM »

Quote from: whytev on April 06, 2015, 08:22:25 PM

Desmond is going to find himself in a bidding war for more money than he could have dreamed of...from teams that want to move him to a different position.

That's my prediction.

I'm calling it right now.

What position? DH?

WhiteWhale · « **Reply #120:** April 07, 2015, 09:49:20 AM »

He's at -1 war on the season.
I don't know what he really is, but that loss is on him

MarquisDeSade · « **Reply #121:** April 07, 2015, 09:54:19 AM »

Quote from: whytev on April 06, 2015, 08:22:25 PM

Desmond is going to find himself in a bidding war for more money than he could have dreamed of...from teams that want to move him to a different position.

That's my prediction.

I'm calling it right now.

I could see the Yankees going full idiot and giving Desmond a $100M contract to be the new Jeter. Read into that what you will.

Full disclosure: I own two Nasty Nats jerseys - Big Pimpin' J Zimm and King Ian Desmond. I'll miss the King if he leaves but I really hope the Nats don't give him a $100M+ contract extension.

Mighty Casey · « **Reply #122:** April 07, 2015, 01:21:52 PM »

'Full Idiot' would be right...Desmond is interested only in himself...he makes sure that he puts himself in the middle of just about any ongoing play in the infield, outfield, behind home plate...he even jogs in and calls off the batboy in order to give the ump new baseballs...mostly at the expense of numerous errors that lead to losses...and at the plate....he stirs up more breeze than a tornado whiffing at pitches so far out of the strike zone that they are in another time zone...
When the game is on the line, I cannot think of any other Nat that I would not want on the field...

GburgNatsFan · « **Reply #123:** April 07, 2015, 01:25:16 PM »

I know Desi made a bone headed play yesterday, but he's a Silver Slugger for three consecutive years. He doesn't suck.

I guess that means he's got value on the open market...

imref · « **Reply #124:** April 07, 2015, 01:27:50 PM »

Quote from: GburgNatsFan on April 07, 2015, 01:25:16 PM

I know Desi made a bone headed play yesterday, but he's a Silver Slugger for three consecutive years. He doesn't suck.

I guess that means he's got value on the open market...

someone will overpay for him. Perhaps the Yankees.