Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP

[houston-nat]

You said he would be next year what Joe Ross was this year. I say he will be better than that

Not only that, he's only a year younger than Joe Ross. I had no idea how young Joe Ross is.

[PC]

signing free agent filler doesn't help. A rotation of Scherzer, Strasburg, Gio, Ross, and filler may not be able to carry the craptastic offense (which won't get better with a older Wert, an older Zimmerman, and taylor's .250/200ks replacing span full time)

You do realize that Zimmerman isn't actually old?  Technically, he's still supposed to be in his prime.

[whytev]

You do realize that Zimmerman isn't actually old?  Technically, he's still supposed to be in his prime.

Yes but it doesn't seem to matter.

[PC]

Chelsea Janes ‏@chelsea_janes  6h6 hours ago

Lucas Giolito was named Eastern League Pitcher of the Week after striking out 11 in seven shutout innings last week.

[HalfSmokes]

You do realize that Zimmerman isn't actually old?  Technically, he's still supposed to be in his prime.

Perpetually injured players don't exactly age well

[Matugi]

5.0 IP 5 H 3 B 5 K 2R 1 ER.  Still having some control issues.  One run was due to a failed cutoff by Severino that allowed runners to advance to third then a wild pitch.  He's right where he needs to be

[JCA-CrystalCity]

93.1 IP so far.  Last year, he went 98.  So, figure they want to get him to maybe 120-30.  Neither Harrisburg nor Syracuse are in playoff position, so figure the upper level teams seasons end around 9/7 and he can get in three more starts.  That leaves him around 110 IP.   He's not on the 40 man roster right now.  I don't think he needs to be added this offseason. Do the Nats send him to Arizona? 

[RD]

93.1 IP so far.  Last year, he went 98.  So, figure they want to get him to maybe 120-30.  Neither Harrisburg nor Syracuse are in playoff position, so figure the upper level teams seasons end around 9/7 and he can get in three more starts.  That leaves him around 110 IP.   He's not on the 40 man roster right now.  I don't think he needs to be added this offseason. Do the Nats send him to Arizona? 

I would think so. It's not a significant jump in innings, if he sticks at 110. Getting some innings in the AFL is needed IMO. Unless of course, we are truly going to baby him. 110 this year, then next year 140 at AA/AAA. Personally, I see his debut next year. I think he needs more innings, and the challenge of more advanced hitters to prepare for that.

[Matugi]

6.2 IP 5H 2ER 2BB 8K freakin baller

[HalfSmokes]

I wonder how Gio feels about the baker signing

[R-Zim#11]

I wonder how Gio feels about the baker signing

The only saving grace is Rizzo is not afraid to step in and protect a young pitcher--for better or worse.

[varoadking]

I wonder how Gio feels about the baker signing

Likely doesn't know the first thing about him...or care one way or another...

[BrandonK]

Likely doesn't know the first thing about him...or care one way or another...

He's a bright guy. I'm sure he notices

[Slateman]

From Baseball America:

1. Lucas Giolito, RHP
 
SCOUTING GRADES
Fastball: 80
Curveball: 70
Changeup: 55
Control: 60
 

Scouting Report: Armed with three above-average offerings capable of generating swings and misses and an extra-large frame that allows him to throw from a steep downhill angle, Giolito is overpowering at his best. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90s and has touched 100 mph. The velocity and angle from which he throws earn his fastball top-of-the-scale grades. His 12-to-6 curveball is a powerful offering with sharp bite and grades nearly as well as his fastball. Giolito also has made strides with his changeup, which has good sinking action. He has turned it into a true weapon against lefthanded hitters. He even produced reverse platoon splits in 2015, holding lefthanders to a .587 OPS, compared with .718 for righthanders. Giolito does a good job of repeating his sound delivery, and he can throw all three of his pitches for strikes. Like any young power pitcher, he still has room to further improve his command, particularly with his secondary pitches. He’s always done a good job of throwing strikes, though he did find Double-A hitters less willing to chase his stuff out of the zone. He is also working on some of the finer points that will prepare him for the major leagues, such as holding runners, fielding his position and learning to hit. He worked on all those during a strong instructional league stint.
 
The Future: Giolito is an elite talent with the stuff, size and pitching acumen to develop into an ace. Having reached Double-A to finish the 2015 season, he is closing in on the big leagues and has the stuff to pitch there. But the Nationals have shown great patience with their prized pitching prospect and will likely continue to proceed cautiously because Giolito still is just 21 and has made just eight starts above Class A.

So, reading that, I think the Nationals need to seriously consider starting Giolito later in the season, with the notion of calling him up and letting him pitch through the MLB season. Get him a few extra rest days, skip a start here and there, but keeping him with the MLB team for the bulk of the season.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

It sounds like the fastball and curve could make him a useful bullpen piece next September and perhaps October.

[Slateman]

It sounds like the fastball and curve could make him a useful bullpen piece next September and perhaps October.

Oh, I've thought that since we got him. But at this point, I want him as a starter late in the season when we suffer an injury or two, and/or discover that Gio Gonalez/Tanner Roark are bad.

[NJ Ave]

Oh, I've thought that since we got him. But at this point, I want him as a starter late in the season when we suffer an injury or two, and/or discover that Gio Gonalez/Tanner Roark are bad.

I never understand the Gio hate. He's not the best pitcher in the world, I get that. He also had a 3.79 ERA last year despite a .341 BABIP allowed which is ludicrously unlucky (since 2010 his highest BABIP allowed has been .294). He allowed a .672 OPS in the second half last year.

I'm betting that we get 175+ innings of an ERA between 3.25 and 3.75 next year, which I will take all day long from a #3/4 starter.

I mean, whatever you think of WAR, Gio was #22 in MLB last year in WAR. Guy just has to eat crap sandwiches from this fanbase though.

[Slateman]

I never understand the Gio hate. He's not the best pitcher in the world, I get that. He also had a 3.79 ERA last year despite a .341 BABIP allowed which is ludicrously unlucky (since 2010 his highest BABIP allowed has been .294). He allowed a .672 OPS in the second half last year.

I'm betting that we get 175+ innings of an ERA between 3.25 and 3.75 next year, which I will take all day long from a #3/4 starter.

I mean, whatever you think of WAR, Gio was #22 in MLB last year in WAR. Guy just has to eat crap sandwiches from this fanbase though.

He's getting worse as the years go by. His ERA and BABIP are increasing year to year as his velocity drops. He still struggles with control, which is fine when you can throw 95-95, but when it's 89-91, it's not a good thing. I'm interested to see how Maddux helps him to improve, but that this point, he's going to be 31 and is unlikely to be gaining his velocity back. So I fully expect him to continue to regress next season, most likely to the 4.00 ERA level.

If he and/or Roark are struggling, I'd like to have the option of calling up Giolito.

[imref]

I mean, whatever you think of WAR, Gio was #22 in MLB last year in WAR. Guy just has to eat crap sandwiches from this fanbase though.

I'm mindfacting, but it seems like the typical Gio start is 5 IP, 90 pitches, 5 walks, 3 earned runs.  I think what frustrates people so much is how rarely he pitches deep into games. 

OK, I looked it up - averaging around 30-32 starts a year he's only hit 200 IP twice, with a career high of 202.  He's averaging around 3.5 BB/9 since coming here, with a RA9opp north of 4.  Only 52% of his starts this year were quality starts, averaging about 100 pitches in 6 innings of work.

That's the crux of it, he's not pitching deep into games and thus is putting a lot of stress on the bullpen.

[NJ Ave]

He's getting worse as the years go by. His ERA and BABIP are increasing year to year as his velocity drops.

To me this doesn't look like anything but an outlier, but you must be better at determining relationships in small changes. A small change, for example, like a 47 point increase in BABIP from 2014 to 2015 with a 0.0 change in MPH.

FASTBALL VELOCITY/BABIP
2011: 92.5/.287
2012: 93.1/.267
2013: 92.6/.286
2014: 92.0/.294
2015: 92.0/.341

[Slateman]

To me this doesn't look like anything but an outlier, but you must be better at determining relationships in small changes. A small change, for example, like a 47 point increase in BABIP from 2014 to 2015 with a 0.0 change in MPH.

FASTBALL VELOCITY/BABIP
2011: 92.5/.287
2012: 93.1/.267
2013: 92.6/.286
2014: 92.0/.294
2015: 92.0/.341

Average fastball velocity in 2012: 93.3
Average fastball velocity in 2013: 92.8
Average fastball velocity in 2014: 92.1
Average fastball velocity in 2015: 91.9

On year is an outlier. But a steadily increasing ERA and BABIP are not outliers.

[HalfSmokes]

Average fastball velocity in 2012: 93.3
Average fastball velocity in 2013: 92.8
Average fastball velocity in 2014: 92.1
Average fastball velocity in 2015: 91.7

On year is an outlier. But a steadily increasing ERA and BABIP are not outliers.

it depends on where you start the list- pull it back to 2010 or 2011 (92.2 and 92.8 velocities respectively) and the pattern disappears

[NJ Ave]

Average fastball velocity in 2012: 93.3
Average fastball velocity in 2013: 92.8
Average fastball velocity in 2014: 92.1
Average fastball velocity in 2015: 91.9

On year is an outlier. But a steadily increasing ERA and BABIP are not outliers.

You're such a joke. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you made a mistake using the 4-SEAM fastball numbers for the first three years, and the 2-SEAM fastball number for 2015, and didn't just outright lie to try to make a point.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7448&position=P#pfxpitchvelocity

ACTUAL GRAPH
Average fastball velocity in 2012: 93.3
Average fastball velocity in 2013: 92.8
Average fastball velocity in 2014: 92.1
Average fastball velocity in 2015: 92.2

[Slateman]

You're such a joke. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you made a mistake using the 4-SEAM fastball numbers for the first three years, and the 2-SEAM fastball number for 2015, and didn't just outright lie to try to make a point.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7448&position=P#pfxpitchvelocity

ACTUAL GRAPH
Average fastball velocity in 2012: 93.3
Average fastball velocity in 2013: 92.8
Average fastball velocity in 2014: 92.1
Average fastball velocity in 2015: 92.2

I actually combined them both and averaged them out.

[HalfSmokes]

I actually combined them both and averaged them out.

Average fastball velocity in 2012: 93.3

(93.3+92.6)/2=93.3?