Author Topic: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS  (Read 17020 times)

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Offline nfotiu

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #275: May 31, 2013, 10:55:01 PM »
better than shoulder or elbow.

probably better long term than back too.

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #276: May 31, 2013, 10:55:20 PM »
better than shoulder or elbow.
Yeah but still not good. Desmond had that crap last year and it lingered and lingered.

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #277: May 31, 2013, 10:58:08 PM »
Just DL him now and call up a reliever. No sense in dragging it out like they did with Detwiler.

Offline SkinsNDeacs

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #278: May 31, 2013, 11:25:28 PM »
Just DL him now and call up a reliever. No sense in dragging it out like they did with Detwiler.

Yeah...DL him now and don't wait for a medical examination   :roll:

Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #279: June 01, 2013, 07:25:35 AM »
Quote from: Morosi
Better to philosophize about what might be than gaze into the emptiness of what should have been.


msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/What-is-hindsight-on-2012-now-on-Strasburg-053113

Offline Matugi

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #280: June 01, 2013, 08:29:06 AM »
Just DL him now and call up a reliever. No sense in dragging it out like they did with Detwiler.

Or Harper

Offline PebbleBall

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #281: June 01, 2013, 08:51:14 AM »
Quote from: Morosi
My view remains unchanged from what I wrote here last September: The Nationals erred by not (a) delaying the start of Strasburg’s 2012 season so he could pitch in the playoffs or (b) adjusting their innings limit once it became apparent the team had evolved into a legitimate World Series contender ahead of schedule.

His view, writing after Strasburg left with injury, is unchanged from the view he wrote after the fact last year.  It's real easy to play MMQB and feel smart.

Either way, if this is limited to the oblique, nobody should be talking about the shutdown.  That was about preserving his arm, not making his body muscles invincible to strain.  Like the move or hate the move, it's about the health of his arm (which I worry will be an issue shortly).

Offline Terpfan76

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #282: June 01, 2013, 09:14:07 AM »
His view, writing after Strasburg left with injury, is unchanged from the view he wrote after the fact last year.  It's real easy to play MMQB and feel smart.

Either way, if this is limited to the oblique, nobody should be talking about the shutdown.  That was about preserving his arm, not making his body muscles invincible to strain.  Like the move or hate the move, it's about the health of his arm (which I worry will be an issue shortly).


why do you worry that it will be an issue?

Offline ajcartwright

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #283: June 01, 2013, 10:09:02 AM »
 :worship:
I was all for the shutdown last year but I was wrong. He's already damaged good and we blew our one chance at doing anything with this group.

Offline PebbleBall

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #284: June 01, 2013, 10:30:27 AM »

why do you worry that it will be an issue?

Because of the arm shaking and wincing throughout the season. 

Offline PebbleBall

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #285: June 01, 2013, 10:32:47 AM »
:worship:

Second guessing, an
Easy place to hang my hat
And never be wrong

Offline NatsDad14

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #286: June 01, 2013, 10:55:31 AM »
Not a bit.  He was rapidly losing effectiveness anyway. 
I was okay with the shutdown because it was the best thing for Strasburg. Also it was easy to see that he was running on empty at the end of the year.

Where is the evidence for that? Here is his last 7 starts:

6 IP, 0 ER
6 IP, 1 ER
6 IP, 2 ER
6 IP, 1 ER
5 IP, 5 ER
6 IP, 0 ER (9K 1 BB)
3 IP, 5 ER

In that span he went 3.32 ERA, 43 K-15 BB. No one is running on fumes based on those numbers. In his second to last start, he allowed 0 runs.

Offline spidernat

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #287: June 01, 2013, 11:17:04 AM »
6.42 ERA in 14 innings over his last 3 starts.  :lol:  Also, why not go back to his last 10 starts?

Offline NatsDad14

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #288: June 01, 2013, 12:32:27 PM »
6.42 ERA in 14 innings over his last 3 starts.  :lol:  Also, why not go back to his last 10 starts?
That's my point. He's only running out of steam if you use arbitrary endpoints. If you think he is running out of steam, skip a start or put him in the bullpen.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #289: June 01, 2013, 01:03:10 PM »
Where is the evidence for that? Here is his last 7 starts:

6 IP, 0 ER
6 IP, 1 ER
6 IP, 2 ER
6 IP, 1 ER
5 IP, 5 ER
6 IP, 0 ER (9K 1 BB)
3 IP, 5 ER

In that span he went 3.32 ERA, 43 K-15 BB. No one is running on fumes based on those numbers. In his second to last start, he allowed 0 runs.

Even averaged out, those are numbers of an above average starter and one who can't go more than 6 innings.  Not some super ace who you can count on for 7-9 strong innings.  In other words, about the same as Detwiler.  I can't see any reasonable argument how a Stras start instead of a Detwiler start would have helped us win that series. 

Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #290: June 01, 2013, 02:40:43 PM »
I can't see any reasonable argument how a Stras start instead of a Detwiler start would have helped us win that series. 

Did shutting Stras down help us win?  Was it a net zero decision? No, having Stras on the team made us better, shutting him down hurt our chances to win a series that we lost by a very narrow margin.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #291: June 01, 2013, 03:46:31 PM »
What would have likely happened is that Stras gets 2 starts, Gio 1, and Det zero.  Det to the bullpen in place of Gonzalez or Gorzellany, I guess.  Stras would not have done better than Det, and Gio's first start was fine, but game 5 maybe plays out a little differently. 

At the time, I had complete faith in Gio for 2 starts and thought Det could handle his start well enough not to shut Stras down.  I also am glad they did not handle him like Medlen.  The Braves could have used a few more of Medlen starts instead of saving them for the divisional round of the playoffs that they did not make because they had to play in the WC game.  That was my comments at the time, and I still feel this way. 

Maybe the better pattern of usage was Sale's, but of course Sale's team did not make the playoffs.  All those saved bullets in his arm due to Don Cooper being smarter than everyone else did the White Sox a lot of good.

Offline NatsDad14

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #292: June 01, 2013, 03:46:31 PM »
Even averaged out, those are numbers of an above average starter and one who can't go more than 6 innings.  Not some super ace who you can count on for 7-9 strong innings.  In other words, about the same as Detwiler.  I can't see any reasonable argument how a Stras start instead of a Detwiler start would have helped us win that series. 
Please show me above average starters who post 3.32 ERA with 3-1 K:BB ratios and a 10 K/9 rate? The 10.2 K/9 rate would be by far the highest in the league with the 2nd closest (Gio) behind by like 1 K/9.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #293: June 01, 2013, 04:00:59 PM »
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-many-runs-would-strasburg-have-saved/

Quote
Against the league-average Detwiler, in other words, the Cardinals would likely score 2.97 runs. Against Strasburg, however, who allowed runs at 75% of the league-average rate, the Cardinals would score only 2.23 runs.

In this case — considering none of the other variable that a smart reader is definitely already considering — Strasburg would save 0.74 runs over Detwiler.

But wait, there’s more!

Because Strasburg would start Game One, he’d also start Game Five — i.e. a game that will now, if it’s played, be started by Gio Gonzalez. In order to calculate the impact of Strasburg’s absence, we also have to figure out how many runs (if any) Strasburg would have saved over Gonzalez.
. . .
Beyond this very basic look at run prevention, it is, of course, necessary to consider context: during a regular-season game, manager Davey Johnson will have let his starters get into trouble. In the playoffs, he is forced to have a significantly quicker hook. According to Baseball Reference, opposing batters had just a .610 OPS against Strasburg for their first plate appearance of a game. In the second plate appearance of a game, batters posted a .641 OPS. For the third, it was a .741 — that is above the National League average of .718. In a playoff situation, Davey Johnson is much more likely to call upon his bullpen — any of whom could likely hold the opposition to a below-average OPS for a short stretch — than let even the Stephen Strasburg face an opposing lineup a third time. Accordingly, Strasburg is unlikely to have saved even as much as the three-quarters of a run noted above.

In conclusion: does Strasburg’s absence make a difference? Yes, but one that is more likely to be overstated than not.

So, let's say .5 runs?

Also:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/should-the-nationals-regret-the-strasburg-shutdown/
Quote

But if we run the counterfactual, in order for Stephen Strasburg to have been able to pitch at least six starts in the postseason — at least two between the Wild Card game (if necessary) and Division Series, at least two in the NLCS, and at least two in the World Series — then the Nationals would have needed to account for that extra 35-40 innings in their plan for his season. They would have needed to skip around six of his regular-season starts.

Since his season was worth 4.3 WAR, that means that they would have essentially lost a win. And considering that they didn’t clinch the division until two days before the end of the season, that would have put the division in jeopardy — so they might have had to play in the Wild Card game, too. And anyone can lose the Wild Card game. Even the two-time defending American League champions. Or the Braves. (Although, in fairness, the Braves have never met a playoff format they couldn’t lose.)

It’s easy to understand why the players are grousing. Believe me, I know how much it sucks to lose to the Cardinals. The Nationals may have not picked the optimal strategy with Strasburg, though I happen to think it was a defensible one. But even if they picked a completely different strategy — as the Braves did with Kris Medlen — the Nationals would still have a good chance of losing in the playoffs to an inferior team. As they say, “That’s baseball.”

Both of these articles were written before Det's start, so they don't have the "I told you so" factor that a lot of these posts, pro and con, have.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #294: June 01, 2013, 04:47:51 PM »
Did shutting Stras down help us win? 

I'm pretty sure you could ask "Did (fill in the blank) help us to win?" And the answer will be the same. 

We lost, make up your own reason(s).

Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #295: June 01, 2013, 05:22:45 PM »
I'm pretty sure you could ask "Did (fill in the blank) help us to win?" And the answer will be the same. 

We lost, make up your own reason(s).

I was just countering the point that shutting down Stras had no impact on our chances of advancing in the playoffs.  I believe that having Stras available would have helped, if you want to counter that opinion that's fine, but you'd be wrong.

Offline NatsDad14

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #296: June 02, 2013, 04:56:30 PM »
I was just countering the point that shutting down Stras had no impact on our chances of advancing in the playoffs.  I believe that having Stras available would have helped, if you want to counter that opinion that's fine, but you'd be wrong.
Would you rather have Strasburg or Gio in game 5? I know the answer. Strasburg would have never melted down like that. Even at his worst, he doesn't walk guys like that.

Offline Smithian

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #297: June 02, 2013, 05:03:41 PM »
Would you rather have Strasburg or Gio in game 5? I know the answer. Strasburg would have never melted down like that. Even at his worst, he doesn't walk guys like that.
But according to some on this board Strasburg is a wussy and a "fake ass".

You'll never make everyone happy

Offline NatsDad14

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #298: June 02, 2013, 05:05:20 PM »
But according to some on this board Strasburg is a wussy and a "fake ass".

He is, but I would still rather have him than Gio. It's the Nats fault for making him like that. They are the ones who always made excuses for his bad starts, but they never did that for Detwiler. The Nats are the ones who babied him, never allowing him to pitch more than 100 pitches.

Offline Baseball is Life

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #299: June 02, 2013, 05:41:31 PM »
He is, but I would still rather have him than Gio. It's the Nats fault for making him like that. They are the ones who always made excuses for his bad starts, but they never did that for Detwiler. The Nats are the ones who babied him, never allowing him to pitch more than 100 pitches.

You can call it babying him but I'd like to think of it as protecting their investment.