Poll: Playoff Chances?

[Baseball is Life]

Frankly, I'm a little surprised that the numbers are running fairly even. I thought the naysayers would be out in full force.

[Smithian]

I wouldn't even want to watch the Nats if they were in the playoffs. They've been awful.

[HalfSmokes]

Frankly, I'm a little surprised that the numbers are running fairly even. I thought the naysayers would be out in full force.

our recent 'free fall' has plunged us all the way to tied for first. The division sucks, they should make it, whether they do anything once they get there is another question

[DCFan]

http://www.csnwashington.com/baseball-washington-nationals/talk/after-sweep-vegas-sees-nats-and-mets-trending-different?p=ya5nbcs&ocid=yahoo

Vegas still favors the Nats. 

[Mathguy]

BIL - They haven't come home from work yet

Frankly, I'm a little surprised that the numbers are running fairly even. I thought the naysayers would be out in full force.

[WashingtonWizards23]

[whytev]

10th Anniversary Season (11th season technically) seems to be mirroring the 1st season. I really hope (team) History is not repeating itself. That would really really SUCK.

I feel 2013.

[Natsinpwc]

not feeling good after last night

[HattoriHanzo]

http://www.csnwashington.com/baseball-washington-nationals/talk/after-sweep-vegas-sees-nats-and-mets-trending-different?p=ya5nbcs&ocid=yahoo

Vegas still favors the Nats. 

There's a lot of locals (aka harper homers) here that have been betting on the nats.  It wouldn't surprise me that they are still the favorites because of the local bettors.  Futures bets don't really account for much at the books.  They have low limits (usually $1,000 max) and more money is made on daily action.

[BeltwayBaseball]

Nats odds now lower than Mets.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/#commentMessage

[HalfSmokes]

Is the fact that we went from 77% to 45% in a four days a good sign that the entire enterprise is flawed? If their system is that confident of an outcome, four games shouldn't be able to swing it to doubtful

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Is the fact that we went from 77% to 45% in a four days a good sign that the entire enterprise is flawed? If their system is that confident of an outcome, four games shouldn't be able to swing it to doubtful

well, 4 losses in a row is like a 6% outcome, not accounting for favorite status which I think we were in some of the matchups.  I think those original odds probably built in one or two wins for us as the more likely results.

[HalfSmokes]

well, 4 losses in a row is like a 6% outcome, not accounting for favorite status which I think we were in some of the matchups.  I think those original odds probably built in one or two wins for us as the more likely results.

is it a 6% outcome- I have to imagine the odds of getting swept in any given series is higher than 6%. With a thee game lead in very early august, I'd say anything north of 60% seems suspiciously high 

edit, it looks like we've been swept 3 times in 3 game series this year out of 24 (quick count, it may be more), so 6% seems very low

[JCA-CrystalCity]

is it a 6% outcome- I have to imagine the odds of getting swept in any given series is higher than 6%. With a thee game lead in very early august, I'd say anything north of 60% seems suspiciously high 

if you assume every game is a coin flip, the 4 coin flips, heads each time, is 1/2 * 2 * 2 *2, or 1/16.  I'm saying 4 because the odds did not go to < 50% until the AZ loss.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

if you assume every game is a coin flip, the 4 coin flips, heads each time, is 1/2 * 2 * 2 *2, or 1/16.  I'm saying 4 because the odds did not go to < 50% until the AZ loss.

Actually, you have to toss in another coin flip - mets over Marlins - to put the Mets up 1 in the standings.  Maybe the odds of being swept by the Mets, losing to the dbacks, and the Mets beating the Marlins is closer to a 3% outcome.

[HalfSmokes]

if you assume every game is a coin flip, the 4 coin flips, heads each time, is 1/2

I would hope that a system that bothers with 1/10 of a percent intervals would be more sophisticated. To me it just looks like the confidence in the outcome is just magnified more than it should be (on April 25, they were 65% confident of the cardinals winning the division, on April 27, they had to pull back to 46%- maybe April 25 is a little early to be that confident about any outcome)

[DCFan]

http://www.csnwashington.com/baseball-washington-nationals/talk/around-nl-east-new-york-mets-yoenis-cespedes?p=ya5nbcs&ocid=yahoo

"With Cespedes now on board and a dynamic pitching staff getting in a groove, you can bet that D.C. fans are starting to get a bit nervous."

What, me worry?

[BeltwayBaseball]

What, me worry?

(Image removed from quote.)

Matt Williams 2015 Managerial Portrait

[HalfSmokes]

Matt Williams 2015 Managerial Portrait

we've going from too asleep to care to too stubborn to care- progress

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I would hope that a system that bothers with 1/10 of a percent intervals would be more sophisticated. To me it just looks like the confidence in the outcome is just magnified more than it should be (on April 25, they were 65% confident of the cardinals winning the division, on April 27, they had to pull back to 46%- maybe April 25 is a little early to be that confident about any outcome)

Oh, it is more sophisticated than my coin flips.  I just use that as a credibility test of how a significant change in the odds could happen.  Basically, they got an extremely unlikely outcome of several events happening, so seeing a substantial movement in the odds is plausible.

[HalfSmokes]

Oh, it is more sophisticated than my coin flips.  I just use that as a credibility test of how a significant change in the odds could happen.  Basically, they got an extremely unlikely outcome of several events happening, so seeing a substantial movement in the odds is plausible.

they problem is that you had the outcome at 6% when we've been swept in 12% of our three game series, on the flip side, the mets have swept 7 3 game series, so them sweeping doesn't seem like an event so unexpected that it should result in a 30 point swing in the odds (the system just seems way too confident with a lot of time and only a three game lead)

[BeltwayBaseball]

they problem is that you had the outcome at 6% when we've been swept in 12% of our three game series, on the flip side, the mets have swept 7 3 game series, so them sweeping doesn't seem like an event so unexpected that it should result in a 30 point swing in the odds (the system just seems way too confident with a lot of time and only a three game lead)

As you see clearly with the graph, the Nats' and Mets' odds are directly tied to one another, because the system doesn't predict either has a shot at the Wild Card. So when there's a 4-game swing it pretty drastically affects the standings. Furthermore, I think it's counting games that teams "should have won" and "should have lost" - the system probably figured this past series against the Mets was absolutely crucial and the Mets were supposed to lose 2/3 - the fact they swept means they cleared out one of the toughest series vs one of the toughest opponents they will face down the stretch. Same goes for the Nats, they were supposed to win 2/3 from the Mets - so when you get swept by the guys the system was figuring you're supposed to beat to give you the odds you have, you take a big hit. Ditto losing to Arizona last night. I think losing to softies and beating tough teams has a big effect on the standings.

The coincidence, then, is that this series in which the Mets cleared a tough opponent and the Nats rolled over to a soft opponent, was against eachother, and they're in the same division, so the cumulative effect is huge.

[mitlen]

Nats will win the division.

I pretty much believe this as well.   We're just suckin' wind right now.

[HalfSmokes]

If 4 out of 162 games lead to a 30 point swing, the system is flawed

[BeltwayBaseball]

If 4 out of 162 games lead to a 30 point swing, the system is flawed

It's a question of between who were those 4 games, at what point in the season, and with what looking forward. 4 games between the two players in a two-team race, at the beginning of August, with the Mets heavily favored going forward based on schedule.

The Nats pissed away too many of their easy games already. April is hurting more and more, and those sweeps in May that weren't, when the Nats would find a way to lose a game and instead come away with 2 out of 3, those losses are hurting too. And then, of course, 5 games lost to the miserable Reds.

But I have no idea how the system works, I'm just guessing here.