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Look at span's offensive war, if you think war over values defense that's pretty atrocious. Even with his glove, his bat and running are so terrible that he needs to positional adjustment to even be positive
I don't believe WAR overvalues defense. I think the eye test tends to greatly undervalue defense.
There is no way to back this. To see the best proof read this great article on Cabrera v Machado:http://www.fantasysp.com/player/mlb/Manny_Machado/2898135/machados-war-versus-cabreras-war
This article supports what I said.
It clearly overvalues defense. Cabrera is out hitting Machado in almost every way possible yet Machado has a better WAR due to his defense. Cabrera has 13 more HR, 36 more RBI, 9 more R, .042 better BA and is a worse WAR? Only because of defense. Here is a better link: http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/36908/machados-war-versus-cabreras-war
Shane avictorino is a perfect example of why WAR sucks for position players.
WAR is not perfect. It makes misleading judgments like any other statistical system and even the staunchest supporters of WAR will not deny that. We only argue that it is the MOST accurate metric of a player's overall performance, not a 100% accurate system.
Not really. Most feel it still over-values defense. Again, look at Victorino's hitting and then look at his WAR. He's a mediocre hitter. His defense is a distance second as he doesn't play catcher or center field.
And again, I think the most people feel it overvalues defense because most people underrate defense.
And they're wrong. This has been proven over and over again.Hitting > defenseRight now we have a very good defensive outfield. Last year it was poor. Yet, especially at the end of last year, it mashed. We won 98 games. This year, we're on pace for .500
It's easier to outhit below average defense than to outdefend below average offense because you have to score at least one run to win. You can still win if you give up 8 or 10 runs whereas you will lose 100% of the time in you score zero runs.
One of the points your first article made is that Machado has been so good on defense that it's literally unsustainable. That many runs prevented make up for the offensive difference. Additionally the RBI numbers, which are the big difference here, are not relevant because they are comparing apples to oranges since Machado hits in the 2 hole and has far less RBI opportunities than does Cabrera. WAR does not penalize Machado for that as standard statistics do - one of many ways WAR is a superior metric of value than standard statistics.
So by your own words the reason Machado is at Miggy's level is due to his runs prevented, which is defense. How else could you explain Machado above Miggy in WAR?
then you're calling major league gms idiots- how many $100 million contracts have gone to great Fielding short stops who cant hit, and how many have gone to power hitters at first who can barely field. I dont think war necessarily overrates defense so much as it underrated the defended of a replacement player- the difference between a replacement short stop and the best Fielding short stop is a lot less than the offensive difference between a replacement first baseman and prince fielder. there is a reason a great Fielding first baseman like laroche couldn't get a long term deal- no gms valued a glove at first
This post makes my point. You actually don't think there's a huge difference between a replacement level shortstop and the best fielding shortstop when there is a WORLD of difference even between major league caliber shortstops in terms of range, how soft the glove is, and accuracy on the arm. WAR accounts for what you didn't see with your eyes. Bad defense can sink teams regardless of how good their hitters are. When Austin Jackson was struggling at the beginning of the season his bad defense along with that of Cabrera and Fielder were causing them to lose games they should have won. And yet they had Fielder, Cabrera, and several other quality hitters hitting in their lineup. So why were they struggling early on? The defense was awful and thus a team that, by your logic, should be winning games regardless an idioy of defense was losing games. That's why WAR is so valuable. It rates runs prevented versus runs provided and when you add up WAR totals of players on any given team and compare it to that team's wins WAR has proven to be strikingly accurate.
then please point out one elite defensively player without a good bat with a mega contract, (there are several batters who cant field with those deals), or are you calling every major league gm (I say every since none chose to bid up defensive players) an idiot?
then please point out one elite defensively player without a good bat with a mega contract,
So GMs with millions on the line, some of whom are employed by owners who made billions in the financial markets (a job line that seems open to math), are just overlooking what you seem to feel is so patently obvious because 'old school'?
Elvis Andrus 8/118