here's another opinion from your friend and mine ...
Strasburg ready for majors right now
Tuesday, March 24, 2009 | Print Entry
Posted by Keith Law
What you have heard on Stephen Strasburg is true. He is bar none the best college pitching prospect in at least 10 years, and there's nobody close to him -- college or high school, pitcher or position player -- in this draft.
The stuff is legit. The San Diego State right-hander hit 99 twice on my gun Friday, sat 97-99 through the third inning against Brigham Young and was still touching 98 in the seventh while never dropping below 94. His fastball has hard riding life to his glove side. His slider was a wipeout pitch, 81-84 mph with tilt and depth and a high degree of toxicity to opposing hitters.
He showed above-average command and was helped by BYU hitters who were playing defense the entire game; he didn't have great location on his fastball but rarely missed inside the zone. He never showed a changeup but didn't need one, as he fanned 15 men in seven innings, and has now struck out 60.6 percent of the batters he has faced this season.
Physically, Strasburg is in the best shape of his life, and that's not just spring training talk. He has a wiry-strong build with barely any fat on him, which is a major improvement over where he was in high school, when excess weight was a major reason he was bypassed entirely in the 2006 Rule 4 Draft. (He wasn't throwing 97-99 then, either.)
He takes an enormous stride toward the plate and generates absurd arm speed as his arm catches up to the rest of his body (that is, his arm is slightly "late" relative to his front side), which is a double-edged sword since it gives him great velocity but the lag puts some extra stress on his shoulder. He has no problems repeating his delivery, which is a good sign for future command.
If there's a concern on Strasburg, it's that a handful of guys who saw sudden spikes in their velocities have broken down soon afterward -- Boston prospect Nick Hagadone blew out his elbow inside of a year, while Joel Zumaya got about four years in before his arm went haywire -- the theory being that their arms weren't physically able to handle the increases in arm speed.
Strasburg has gone from 88-89 as a high school senior in 2006 to 94-97 in the summers of 2007 and 2008 to 96-100 now, and there is no good comparable that might give us guidance on how he'll hold up or even what his early career might look like. If you're in the Nationals' shoes, you need to just draft him and hope for the best.
The latest rumor -- which is probably just that, rumor -- is that Strasburg will demand a major-league deal covering five years with a guarantee of $25 million. (Strasburg and his adviser, Scott Boras, can not discuss terms with major-league teams right now, and it would in fact be very early for any adviser to even hint at dollar figures.)
If I'm Washington, I would give Strasburg that deal and bring him directly to the big leagues. I'm not sure what Strasburg could possibly have to learn in the minors, and if there really is a finite number of pitches in that arm, you might as well get the most out of them.
Strasburg would also give Washington a better chance to win than it's likely to have with any starter on that team, even if his command is only fair, and he'd be a significant draw for fans who really need a good reason to come out to Nationals Park right now.
The price tag quoted above may be completely bogus, but I don't think it's unreasonable when you consider what Strasburg could do for Washington if he signs quickly.
