2011 Post Draft Discussion / Signing Watch

[HalfSmokes]

I know shoulder injuries are always concerning, but it turned out to not be serious. That doesn't mean it's ignored, but let's be honest - Every pitcher at some point has had some form of arm discomfort/pain. Its not like he's coming off labrum surgery or anything. Like I said, you don't ignore it, but you don't write him off because of it as well. $5mill would probably be hard to swallow, but I think its worth a risk in paying him quite well, because if he didn't have that little bout, we nevver would have had a chance to select him, even at 6.

little bout? it was enough to drop him from possible number 1 overall to the third round, and he wasn't effective last year. Because he skipped cape cod, he doesn't have any way to show he's healthy now either

[sportsfan882]

BHarp45 Bryan Harper
I am joining my brother and becoming a #National. I leave for #Florida on Thursday!! #MiLB

[RD]

If Purke had no injury questions, he very likely goes #1. Remember, he entered the year as one of three elite guys - Cole, Rendon, and Purke. His actual numbers were fine. Without the health issue, his velo isn't down, and he doesnt miss time. So he's one of those elite guys. He was a guaranteed top 5 guy, without question. Since Bauer at 3 got $7mill, I see no reason why he wouldn't have gotten that if there were no shoulder questions.

Anyway, I agree that if he walks away, then I don't blame the Nats. With their draft history, there's no way we offer the kid less than $2mill. Im sure we'll at the very least approach $3mill. If he turns that deal down and walks, it's not the teams fault. i think they may go a bit higher than that, just saying if he walks away from multi millons, it's on him.

[DPMOmaha]

It's been well established that Purke's demands are high, he spurned the $4M in '09. He is also Sophomore Eligible which makes drafting him, without the intent on paying somewhere near the Rick Porcello deal (around $7M) foolish. This isn't a case of a draftee changing his mind or playing some sort of game but a player that has already established what it will take to close the deal.

Was '09 the year that he was drafted by Texas and he wanted to sign but MLB nixed the overslot offer because the Rangers were bankrupt?

[DPMOmaha]

If Purke had no injury questions, he very likely goes #1. Remember, he entered the year as one of three elite guys - Cole, Rendon, and Purke. His actual numbers were fine. Without the health issue, his velo isn't down, and he doesnt miss time. So he's one of those elite guys. He was a guaranteed top 5 guy, without question. Since Bauer at 3 got $7mill, I see no reason why he wouldn't have gotten that if there were no shoulder questions.

Anyway, I agree that if he walks away, then I don't blame the Nats. With their draft history, there's no way we offer the kid less than $2mill. Im sure we'll at the very least approach $3mill. If he turns that deal down and walks, it's not the teams fault. i think they may go a bit higher than that, just saying if he walks away from multi millons, it's on him.

Is there expected to be some sort of actual hard slotting for draft picks with the upcoming CBA?  That could impact his decision.

[RD]

Was '09 the year that he was drafted by Texas and he wanted to sign but MLB nixed the overslot offer because the Rangers were bankrupt?

Yes.

Is there expected to be some sort of actual hard slotting for draft picks with the upcoming CBA?  That could impact his decision.

Its been mentioned that it will be a topic for discussion. Some feel it's not really feasible, and probably won't happen. I would think the possibility of it at least is one thing to consider for Purke. Not that he'll sign solely because of that, but there are a million factors that go into a decision and thats one thing to at least discuss.

[RD]

little bout? it was enough to drop him from possible number 1 overall to the third round, and he wasn't effective last year. Because he skipped cape cod, he doesn't have any way to show he's healthy now either

Purke was 5-1 with a 1.71era, 61/20 K/BB, 36hits, 52ip.

Thats ineffective?

Purke had a very good year stat wise. Not as dominant as his freshman year, but those numbers projected over an entire season are excellent.

Yes, I dont think bursitis is a big deal, hence calling it a little bout. He played through it and came back from it. It's not something that should hinder his future either. You don't just blow it off, and you put in work to see hwo healthy he is, and the questions around it definitely effect negotiations. It doesn't mean you lowball him either.

Purke fell because of the concern, no doubt. But, at draft time, small things and questions unanswered can cause a big slide. Nobody anticipated Rendon sliding. He fell for doubts around his shoulder, and no matter how bad it was, it wouldn't hinder him long term. Even if he had labrum surgery, he'd still be able to play a position and hit well.

With Purke, certainly a shoulder injury is a bigger deal for a pitcher. Since teams didnt have their own medical evals of him, it's legitimate doubt. You have to consider that, and he slid. But he also had the sophomore tag going against him. When you consider the doubt, and he slides a little bit, the questions around him signing become even bigger because he has the leverage of going back to school. So it wasn't solely the injury, even though that was the main reason.

Bursitis is healed with basic rest and rehab. So its probably smart for him to sit out the summer. Before he gets signed, he will go through a full medical eval. Any deal will be voided if the shoulder shows anything. And if it shows he's 100%, then we proceed forward with some level of ease because we'll get to work on his mechanics to get him back to an elite performer.

[wpa2629]

Major league deals cannot be voided if there is an injury, minor league deals can. If Purke won't sign unless it's a major league deal and he never comes all the way back from injury, Nats eat the contract. That's also a risk.

[d_mc_nabb]

I think they should sign Purke. I really don't care what it costs. They made an investment. They knew exactly what they were getting into when they picked him. If he wants #1 pick money, give it to him. If he busts, it'll be a like having another 1st round pick that busted; unfortunate, but it happens. If his shoulder recovers fully, then it's highway robbery. obviously you don't start at 7 million- but I don't think 4 million should be the ceiling.

[UnkleWheez]

This is a question and answer that was posted 0n Baseball America. http://ht.ly/5UupF       

John (Richmond, VA): Any updates on Nats picks Purke, Turnbull, Buchanon, and Laxer? Thank you.


Jim Callis: I don't think Purke is going to sign for less than he turned down of high school, so I don't think he's going to sign. He's competitive enough to take his chances of returning to full health, which could make him the No. 1 pick in the 2012 draft. Turnbull is slow going so far, but I bet the Nats sign him. I see Buchanan and Laxer as backup problems in case they don't get Rendon, Meyer or Goodwin signed at the top of the draft. Those three might cost a combined $10 million (counting salaries in a big league deal for Rendon), but I bet they sign all three.

So I am asking, Who signs on signing day?

I looked and think this is not being done elsewhere. If it is, sorry.

[tomterp]

Unkle, I merged your post with a thread dedicated to monitoring draft signees.  I also took the liberty of moving that thread to the Farm area where it belongs.

[Nathan]

It was supposed to stay in The Clubhouse until after the deadline

[NFA Brian]

I understand it's a throwaway line in a chat with a guy who is not part of the Nationals, but this continually drives me nuts.

I see Buchanan and Laxer as backup problems (sic) in case they don't get Rendon, Meyer or Goodwin signed at the top of the draft

They should not be "backup plans" if guys are not signed. They should all be signed. What is $3M (my guesstimate for Buchanan & Laxer) over the next seven years? Seriously. It's roughly the major league minimum for two lottery tickets. Guys who could develop into major leaguers in four or so seasons.

Like I said, I know what Callis is trying to say. I just don't agree with the thought process.

[tomterp]

It was supposed to stay in The Clubhouse until after the deadline

UnkleWheez couldn't find it, because he was looking in the right place - The Farm, not the wrong place, the Clubhouse.   

[Morse Code 38]

I understand it's a throwaway line in a chat with a guy who is not part of the Nationals, but this continually drives me nuts.

They should not be "backup plans" if guys are not signed. They should all be signed. What is $3M (my guesstimate for Buchanan & Laxer) over the next seven years? Seriously. It's roughly the major league minimum for two lottery tickets. Guys who could develop into major leaguers in four or so seasons.

Like I said, I know what Callis is trying to say. I just don't agree with the thought process.

I disagree.  You don't just give draft picks whatever they ask for.  Also, no team, not even the richest teams, signs all of there draft picks (sometimes these are mistakes (Yankees failed to sign Garrit Cole, Red Sox failed to sign Pedro Alvarez and Alex Meyer)), but sometimes you draft players hoping their demands come down and you can sign them for the what you think they're worth (or at least in the neighborhood).

So many drafted players never make the major leagues that throwing money at every player you draft would put a huge dent in your budget for the major league team. 

[NFA Brian]

I disagree.  You don't just give draft picks whatever they ask for.  Also, no team, not even the richest teams, signs all of there draft picks (sometimes these are mistakes (Yankees failed to sign Garrit Cole, Red Sox failed to sign Pedro Alvarez and Alex Meyer)), but sometimes you draft players hoping their demands come down and you can sign them for the what you think they're worth (or at least in the neighborhood).

So many drafted players never make the major leagues that throwing money at every player you draft would put a huge dent in your budget for the major league team.  

Teams allocate budgets for major league separate from their draft budget separate from their player development budget separate from their international budget.

I did not say give the players whatever they want. Set a cap for each player and work within those parameters.

My point is that it should not be an either/or. If the Nationals felt that Buchanan and Laxer are worth $3M combined to the Nationals then signing Rendon, Meyer, Goodwin and Purke should not impact that because they also have budget parameters

I honestly believe a rebuilding team like the Nationals should not be hesitant to set a draft budget of at least $15 million each year. If you spread that out over the 30+ players and the six plus years of control they have, it's how bad teams become better

[Morse Code 38]

Teams allocate budgets for major league separate from their draft budget separate from their player development budget separate from their international budget.

I did not say give the players whatever they want. Set a cap for each player and work within those parameters.

My point is that it should not be an either/or. If the Nationals felt that Buchanan and Laxer are worth $3M combined to the Nationals then signing Rendon, Meyer, Goodwin and Purke should not impact that because they also have budget parameters

I honestly believe a rebuilding team like the Nationals should not be hesitant to set a draft budget of at least $15 million each year. If you spread that out over the 30+ players and the six plus years of control they have, it's how bad teams become better

Good clarification, thanks.  I still have slight disagreement with it only in that they have to have a budget of some number ($15M would be nice!), so the signing of some picks will almost necessarily preclude the signing of others.  But I thought you were saying something different in the post I quoted, and your clarification means our disagreement is much more minor than I suggested in my post.

[HalfSmokes]

I have my doubts on Purke, but I'd be shocked if they didn't sign the rest- they drafted these guys knowing the cost, and they generally don't draft guys they don't intend to sign

[tomterp]

Teams allocate budgets for major league separate from their draft budget separate from their player development budget separate from their international budget.

I did not say give the players whatever they want. Set a cap for each player and work within those parameters.

My point is that it should not be an either/or. If the Nationals felt that Buchanan and Laxer are worth $3M combined to the Nationals then signing Rendon, Meyer, Goodwin and Purke should not impact that because they also have budget parameters

I honestly believe a rebuilding team like the Nationals should not be hesitant to set a draft budget of at least $15 million each year. If you spread that out over the 30+ players and the six plus years of control they have, it's how bad teams become better

In reality, while teams surely have a number mind for each player they draft, they also know, expect, and can predict a certain non-sign rate based on experience, and thus will overbudget in total with the expectation that some won't sign.  For example, maybe the sum of the player caps is $12m, but they in fact only intend to spend $10m, with some players opting out of the process.

I agree with your comment

I honestly believe a rebuilding team like the Nationals should not be hesitant to set a draft budget of at least $15 million each year. If you spread that out over the 30+ players and the six plus years of control they have, it's how bad teams become better

Drafting and obtaining prospects via trade, then developing these players carefully, is the best, and most cost effective, path to fielding a competitive team.  This is no place to scrimp and save.  

[NFA Brian]

the other aspect I look at is that the Nationals again are not investing as much internationally as a team in their position should. I understand they are re-establishing their presence/reputation but if they believe they need these years internationally to regroup, they need to bump up the draft budget with the dollars they are not spending internationally. At the beginning of the year when they are setting their budgets for each area, bump up the draft budget

[PatsNats28]

Out of curiosity, what would a top 10 prospects list look like with the guys we've drafted? I'd imagine that Rendon, Goodwin, Meyers, and Purke would all be in it.

[NFA Brian]

1. Bryce Harper
2. Anthony Rendon
3. Matt Purke
4. Alex Meyer
5. AJ Cole
6. Derek Norris
7. Brad Peacock
8. Sammy Solis
9. Brian Goodwin
10a. Chris Marrero
10b. Robbie Ray

[tomterp]

1. Bryce Harper
2. Anthony Rendon
3. Matt Purke
4. Alex Meyer
5. AJ Cole
6. Derek Norris
7. Brad Peacock
8. Sammy Solis
9. Brian Goodwin
10a. Chris Marrero
10b. Robbie Ray

 

[DCisforBaseball]

What is $3M (my guesstimate for Buchanan & Laxer) over the next seven years?

Just out of curiosity, has Laxer's previously-reported asking price of $900k gone up? I asked him in my interview, but he declined the question.

[NFA Brian]

Just out of curiosity, has Laxer's previously-reported asking price of $900k gone up? I asked him in my interview, but he declined the question.

Not necessarily. I spitballed it a bit aggressively. Realistically, I'd imagine the deals could be done closer to $2-2.5M total