The Bryce Harper Compendium (2014)

[CALSGR8]

"Bryce Harper Compendium" Index:

2012 - http://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=26425.0
2013 - http://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=32955.0
2014 - http://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=30479.0
2015 - http://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=32957.0


What?   Not Puig?   Wow!

[JMW IV]

Tim Kurkjian said on ESPN this morning that his bold predictions for 2014 are #Harpgod winning the Triple Crown and the Nats winning it all.

that is some pure fanboy crap.

would love to see it happen, but i would bet any amount of money on it.

talking about Harper winning the triple crown, i mean.

[Slateman]

Well, we're freaked

[imref]

that is some pure fanboy crap.

would love to see it happen, but i would bet any amount of money on it.

talking about Harper winning the triple crown, i mean.

wasn't he on a pace for it before he hurt his knee?

[Hogie]

I'd be thrilled with .300 and 36 homers out of Bryce this year.

[PowerBoater69]

@Bharper3407: 2014 Nats! A year full of knocks, bombs, gold gloves, champagne celebrations, and a World Series trophy!! Write your own book! #NewPage #NYE

[imref]

Harper before injuring his knee (through the end of April): .344 / .430 / .720 9 HRs

[BH34Natural]

I'll take a long-term contract extension...

[TigerFan]

I'll take a long-term contract extension...

For an oft injured dude that likes spending time with his girl and eating cereal?  Pfft... or have things changed in the last 60 days?

[Slateman]

Are we back? Do the mods wanna combine my Bryce Harper offseason workout thread in to this one?

[Nathan]

This thread is getting pretty long, I'll probably split it off for a 2014 continuation thread when I'm not on my  cellphone.

[imref]

he filmed a "this is sportscenter" commercial yesterday.

[PebbleBall]

Harper before injuring his knee (through the end of April): .344 / .430 / .720 9 HRs

It's a month.  Adam LaRoche hit .330/.416/.608 in May.

[stiffler]

its nice to have a mvp candidate to brag about

[DPMOmaha]

It's a month.  Adam LaRoche hit .330/.416/.608 in May.

It may have just been a month, but in the totality of the season, he still managed to improve from his ROY season almost across the board, despite having 100 fewer at bats. Keep the dude healthy and he's going to have a monster year.

[mrgoyette]

Nice thought, but I don't see how he can win the BA title. .300 would be a great average for him this year.

[BH34Natural]

Lots of talk of the Angels possibly offering Trout an extension at the end of or during the course of the year. Will the Nats do the same with Harper?

[Terpfan76]

Lots of talk of the Angels possibly offering Trout an extension at the end of or during the course of the year. Will the Nats do the same with Harper?

Sure if he goes all triple crown on them. Unless he lights the world on fire I see them letting things play out a bit.

[maxrum]

When will Bryce Harper live up to the MVP hype? Clown question, bro?
http://dynastysportsempire.com/clown-question-bro/

The year was 2012. You sold everything plus the kitchen sink for the #1 overall pick in your dynasty league’s new player draft to grab one of the most-hyped fantasy baseball prospects of all time. Awesome move. Sit back, and watch the titles roll in…Man. You should have picked Mike Trout instead.

Or should you have?

First, Bryce has been the victim of unreasonable expectations. Bryce Harper has been a solid, if unspectacular, $20-$25 player through the first two years of his major league career, but give the kid a break. He’s just entering his age 21 season! What did you have figured out about your profession at age 21? Also, if you’re going to judge the guy this early in his career, you need to look beyond the surface stats.

On the surface, Bryce is a .270 BA 20 HR/20 SB outfielder. Valuable, but not MVP. However, a deeper look shows an MVP in waiting. The first thing that jumps out is Harper’s power potential. Through his first two major league seasons, Harper has averaged around a HR per every 25 PAs. The issue so far has not been with his power stroke, but rather with his lack of a full season of plate appearances. In 2012, Bryce logged 597 PAs in 139 games as, well, he was only 19! In 2013, Bryce was limited to 497 PAs in 118 games due to nagging left knee bursitis, resolved by surgery this past October. If he can put together a full season of work and 700 PAs, he will post 30 HRs even if his power skill remains completely stagnant. (And the same logic applies to his SB numbers).

But Harper is just entering his age 21 season, and is likely 6-10 years away from his power prime. A look at some advanced stats confirm his power skill is improving. His HR/FB % climbed from 16% to 18% in 2013. His scaled linear weighted power (or PX, check BaseballHQ.com or Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster for an explanation), improved from 122 in 2012 to 142 in 2013. For reference, league-average PX is 100 and elite-level power is a PX of 150 or above. Harper’s ISO Power (SLG – BA, measuring his propensity to generate extra bases per plate appearance) climbed from .206 to .212, heading toward elite. His wOBA climbed 20 points to .371. In short, its hard to find a power production stat that Harper hasn’t improved in during his young career.

In addition, Harper already displays the plate approach of an elite veteran. His SO/BB rate is a miniscule 1.54, a full point below the MLB average during the same time. His 18.9 K% puts him in the same category as plate control experts like Joey Votto. He sees over 4 pitches per PA, putting him in the same category as other selective power-hitters.  His BABIP has remained around the league average between .300 and .310 so far in his early career, but if he hits a run of good BABIP luck, look out, because his BA is going above .300 and his OBP will climb above .400.

Finally, and most exciting to me, look at the batters in MLB history who are most similar to Bryce Harper through age 20 (courtesy of baseball-reference.com). Tony Conigliaro (oh, what could have been), Ken Griffey, Jr. and Mickey Mantle!

So if you’re going into an initial dynasty-league auction, go the extra $10 on Bryce. You’re buying a building block for your team for the next decade.  And if you’ve got a high pick in an initial dynasty-league draft, pick Bryce and don’t think twice, you can bank on his potential to become an all-time great. Unless, of course, Mike Trout is still on the board…just kidding. Don’t be a clown, bro.

[stiffler]

good stuff for Harper to not only make it but be an all star with all the hype is awesome. next step mvp should be gravy.

[mitlen]

I'm a big fan of your screen name.   

[UMDNats]

Harper essentially played on 1.5 knees this season and still had a 133 OPS+ and improved across the board from his rookie year. At age 20 he already has a very solid walk rate, solid strikeout rates (especially considering his power) and an advanced hitting approach. The things that he needs to work on offensively - not trying to do too much and keeping his emotions from hurting his approach - are coachable, easily.

There is no reason that he can't be a perennial MVP-caliber player very soon, if not this year. Watching this kid play baseball is awesome.

[mrgoyette]

Harper essentially played on 1.5 knees this season and still had a 133 OPS+ and improved across the board from his rookie year. At age 20 he already has a very solid walk rate, solid strikeout rates (especially considering his power) and an advanced hitting approach. The things that he needs to work on offensively - not trying to do too much and keeping his emotions from hurting his approach - are coachable, easily.

There is no reason that he can't be a perennial MVP-caliber player very soon, if not this year. Watching this kid play baseball is awesome.

I agree. Imagine what he's going to do with a pain free swing, pain free sprinting, and Matt Williams giving him a brighter green light on the basepaths.

[nobleisthyname]

He still needs to improve against lefties.

[madj55]

http://natsinsider.com/2014/02/20/bryce-harper-enters-2014-a-motivated-man/

Harper sounds hungry.