Follow the Prospects: Anthony Rendon, 3B (and 2B, we hope)

[PowerBoater69]

I have to think it would almost be unprecedented for a team with World Series aspirations to yank a good-but-not-great player out of the lineup and hand the position to an untested rookie in mid-season. No matter how promising a rookie is, it's pretty unexpected for one to be better than an average player.

Unprecedented?  I haven't followed enough World Series contenders to provide examples but I'd venture a guess that teams that want to win a championship generally make the hard decisions to get the best guy on the field regardless of hurt feelings.

[NJ Ave]

I think you missed the point entirely. It doesn't matter if feelings would be hurt, but it does matter that it is FAR from given, and likely less than 50%, that Rendon would outperform Espinosa this year. There have only been 7 3+ WAR rookie seasons in the past three years where the plauyer had 500+ PA. Except for Cespedes, who was 27 and right in his hitting prime, every single other player also contributed to his WAR total with plus defense or baserunning or both.

One of those seasons was Danny Espinosa, by the way.

My point has nothing to do with sparing feelings and ignoring what's best for the team. My point is that what's best for the team is overwhelmingly likely to be having Espinosa at 2B this season because even amazing hitting prospects generally struggle during their first big league experience.

[PowerBoater69]

I think you missed the point entirely. It doesn't matter if feelings would be hurt, but it does matter that it is FAR from given, and likely less than 50%, that Rendon would outperform Espinosa this year. There have only been 7 3+ WAR rookie seasons in the past three years where the plauyer had 500+ PA. Except for Cespedes, who was 27 and right in his hitting prime, every single other player also contributed to his WAR total with plus defense or baserunning or both.

One of those seasons was Danny Espinosa, by the way.

My point has nothing to do with sparing feelings and ignoring what's best for the team. My point is that what's best for the team is overwhelmingly likely to be having Espinosa at 2B this season because even amazing hitting prospects generally struggle during their first big league experience.

We'll of course see what happens, comparisons like that don't really make much sense to me as each situation is unique, and in this case I'm thinking that Rendon is the better player, but of course I'm not seeing them everyday.

[NJ Ave]

Yes, we'll see what happens.

Look, to be as valuable as Danny while being just an average runner and defender as 2B, Rendon would have to hit roughly like Bryce Harper did last year.

If he was a below average defender, he'd have to hit like Adam LaRoche to be as valuable as Danny, and that's the more likely defensive scenario. If he was a bad defender, which is certainly possible, he'd have to hit like Albert Pujols to be as valuable as Danny.

That's assuming Danny is no better than last year, and that's just to be AS valuable as Danny, which is certainly not the threshold you want to shoot for as a GM looking to replace a popular member of your WS contending team.

People can dream on Rendon however they please. Personally, I think it's important to understand that if the front office replaced Espinosa with Rendon, they'd likely have an expectation that Rendon would be a substantially better hitter than Bryce Harper last season.

I think it's unlikely they expect that, which is why I expect to see Rendon in September to spell starters and pinch hit.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I have to think it would almost be unprecedented for a team with World Series aspirations to yank a good-but-not-great player out of the lineup and hand the position to an untested rookie in mid-season. No matter how promising a rookie is, it's pretty unexpected for one to be better than an average player.

Bengie Molina pulled for Posey?  Molina was still good enough to start for the Rangers.

I'm trying to think whether the Rays did this.  Des Jennings did not replace any quality in 2011, nor did Longoria in 2008.

[Tyler Durden]

Trading LaRoche after this season sounds like a winning move to me.  That opens up a corner spot for Moore/Skole/Rendon - whichever (or whichever combination) works best.  Or even Marrero if he shocks the world and becomes the best of that bunch.

That has the added benefit of opening up some payroll room to re-up JZ or to sign Harper to that 22 year contract.

[Tyler Durden]

Bengie Molina pulled for Posey?  Molina was still good enough to start for the Rangers.

I'm trying to think whether the Rays did this.  Des Jennings did not replace any quality in 2011, nor did Longoria in 2008.

Cardinals with Taveras?  Is he going to play over Beltran or Jay?

[NJ Ave]

Bengie Molina pulled for Posey?  Molina was still good enough to start for the Rangers.

I'm trying to think whether the Rays did this.  Des Jennings did not replace any quality in 2011, nor did Longoria in 2008.

I thought about Jennings, and actually looked it up. On July 23 when they called up Jennings, BJ Upton was hitting like .220/.300/.390 and they still never considered shifted Upton to LF. Jennings replaced Fuld in LF instead.

Bengie Molina was coming off a .7 WAR season and the Giants still tried to bring him back and make Posey play 1B instead.

I understand that a lot of people are frustrated enough by Danny that they see him as a worthless player. But it's not the case.

He's basically our BJ Upton.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

While I'm still, relatively speaking, a Danny guy, I wonder about the assumption that Rendon would be a below average defender.  Last spring, we were playing him at SS in the spring, and supposedly the only reason Rice moved him off SS was becaase they still had Hague (and then Rendon was hurt his last year).  If his leg impaired his mobility since then, OK, and there is no way in heck his arm is as strong as Danny's.  He will not be Danny with the glove, but I would suspect that he is at least as likely to be an above average defender at 2d as he is to be below average.

All of this proves another point.  This guy has zero minor league experience to speak of.  Even Bryce had a year full time plus a month, and he would not have been called up but for injuries.  a half year in the minors isn't ridiculously long for him.   

edit - by the way, the Molina / Jennings answer was just trying to think of examples.  Not questioning your basic analysis.

[NJ Ave]

I'm conservative, so I lean towards believing that if he could handle a position where he'd be much more valuable, then he would have done it at some point. Guys like John Manuel have made statements like they project that Rendon could play a "fair" 2B. I've never heard anyone say he'd be a "plus" defender there, and there are also some scouts who don't believe he'll be able to play there at all.

Overall, it seems like the average projection is that he'd be below average at 2B, and it seems overly optimistic to project someone as possibly being plus at a tougher position they've never played. It's like saying that every good LF would automatically be a good CF, which is absolutely false.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I hear you, but I wonder how much of the Manuel stuff and others is group think and repetition of others observations and how much is from observation.  I'm sure their opinion is based on better knowledge and sources than my opinion is.  That said, I think it is important to actually have him play some middle infield and see if what the Nats were saying last spring was just a bunch of smoke. 

Our discussion really supports the idea that those who say he can walk in and play second are buying into a mystery on defense.  There aren't enough numbers above high school to say he's much more than a mystery and a case for inferences on his d.  I'm just suggesting the error bands go above the median as well as below with him (unlike Espinosa's D, which at this point is only a question of how far above average he is).

[houston-nat]

Since somebody asked about Anthony Rendon's defensive history, I asked an old Rice contact of mine.

"Oh, man. This is dating me. Believe he was moved there because of Hague, and because [Coach Wayne] Graham (or others) didn't believe he had the range for DI [Division I] SS."

He's asking an old Rice baseball reporter.

[welch]

Since somebody asked about Anthony Rendon's defensive history, I asked an old Rice contact of mine.

"Oh, man. This is dating me. Believe he was moved there because of Hague, and because [Coach Wayne] Graham (or others) didn't believe he had the range for DI [Division I] SS."

He's asking an old Rice baseball reporter.

Post today reports that Rendon plays all over. Davey suggested Rendon is a slick 2B.

[houston-nat]

Since somebody asked about Anthony Rendon's defensive history, I asked an old Rice contact of mine.

"Oh, man. This is dating me. Believe he was moved there because of Hague, and because [Coach Wayne] Graham (or others) didn't believe he had the range for DI [Division I] SS."

He's asking an old Rice baseball reporter.

"Yeah, that sounds about right. When I interviewed Rendon before he began his freshman season, he said he was looking forward to third base and that [because of the shift] he now identified more with his favorite MLB player -- yep, you guessed it -- Alex Rodriguez."

[tomterp]

Post today reports that Rendon plays all over. Davey suggested Rendon is a slick 2B.

Sure, slick.  But he ain't no Uggla.

[Lintyfresh85]

Post today reports that Rendon plays all over. Davey suggested Rendon is a slick 2B.

How would Davey know? He hasn't played a single inning for the Nats at 2B in 1+ seasons.

[Terpfan76]

How would Davey know? He hasn't played a single inning for the Nats at 2B in 1+ seasons.

Well, Davey has been around the block a few times so I'm willing to give him the benefit of the  doubt that he might just see something in Rendon that leads him to think that way.

[Lintyfresh85]

Well, Davey has been around the block a few times so I'm willing to give him the benefit of the  doubt that he might just see something in Rendon that leads him to think that way.

Suggesting he is slick implies he's seen him play there.

[Terpfan76]

Suggesting he is slick implies he's seen him play there.

So has he practiced there at all? Just because he hasn't played there at in a game doesn't mean he may not show the natural ability to be a slick fielding 2nd baseman.

[zimm_da_kid]

I think you missed the point entirely. It doesn't matter if feelings would be hurt, but it does matter that it is FAR from given, and likely less than 50%, that Rendon would outperform Espinosa this year. There have only been 7 3+ WAR rookie seasons in the past three years where the plauyer had 500+ PA. Except for Cespedes, who was 27 and right in his hitting prime, every single other player also contributed to his WAR total with plus defense or baserunning or both.

One of those seasons was Danny Espinosa, by the way.

My point has nothing to do with sparing feelings and ignoring what's best for the team. My point is that what's best for the team is overwhelmingly likely to be having Espinosa at 2B this season because even amazing hitting prospects generally struggle during their first big league experience.

Defensive WAR is very inexact and overrated.  the offensive numbers are what matter.

[Tyler Durden]

So has he practiced there at all? Just because he hasn't played there at in a game doesn't mean he may not show the natural ability to be a slick fielding 2nd baseman.

I've never seen Ryan Zimmerman play 1B but I think he'd be a slick first baseman.  Same with Rendon. 

[blue911]

Defensive WAR is very inexact and overrated.  the offensive numbers are what matter.

So you're saying Danny has an ugly girlfriend?

[Slateman]

I've never seen Ryan Zimmerman play 1B but I think he'd be a slick first baseman.  Same with Rendon. 

My only problem with Rendon at first is he's kinda short.

[blue911]

My only problem with Rendon at first is he's kinda short.

He's the same height as Keith Hernandez.

[Tyler Durden]

Also Steve Garvey.  Listed at 5'10" and 190 lbs.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1004557&position=1B