2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread

[hammondsnats]

Nats make a signing, per Craig Heist: F.P. Santangelo is coming back to the booth next year.  They offered a contract to Carp as well.

[LANC] SEE LANC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! [/LANC]

but good move.

[Mr Clean]

Hamilton is dynamic. 

[Slateman]

Bourn seemed to really fall off down the stretch last year and strikes out a ton (relatively speaking) and is getting up there in age - I don't see him as an upgrade over Harper in CF or Werth at lead-off and you'll have to really over pay to get him.

So yeah - No to Bourn

I want Goodwin - let's give him a shot

You don't want Bourn because he strikes out a lot but you want a guy who struck out 26% of the time in AA ball while hitting .223/.306/.373? Wat?

As for not an upgrade in CF over Harper, you may want to look at this: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Bourn was the definition of a freaking stud in CF. There was no one better according to the metrics. There hasn't been anyone better the last three years.

The idea of a guy who will have turned 30 suddenly not being good is retarded, even in baseball. A lot of guys have maintained there legs in to their early 30s. I seem to remember these guys ... Ichiro and Shane Victorino come to mind. Sorry, but its' the 21st century. Atheletes are able to maintain longer. And while speed may be the first to go it is highly unlikely that 4 months after turning 30, Bourn will suddenly become much slower.

And Hamilton is going to sign a long term deal with an AL team for a ton of money so they can DH him. I'm betting on the win it all Tigers.

Hamilton is dynamic.

Maybe at the bar ....

[imref]

Borb says the Nats & LaRoche are still far apart, and that Adam wants 3 years.

[Slateman]

Still think that the entire offseason is hinging on whether they re-sign Laroche or not.

[imref]

so if the choice is Bourn (moving Morse to 1B) or LaRoche, what's a better move for the next 3 years?

[HalfSmokes]

LaRoche- power over speed any day

[Slateman]

so if the choice is Bourn (moving Morse to 1B) or LaRoche, what's a better move for the next 3 years?

Who is more likely to regress more?

Both are coming off their highest year by WAR.

[Tyler Durden]

Slate - a couple of pages ago, you posted a whole bunch of comparisons for Goodwin.  My whole point was that he profiles as a leadoff guy.  You posted a bunch of players who were or could have been good leadoff hitters.  Where he compares to Bourn or one of those other guys is kind of beside the point.

As far as the question above, Bourn over LaRoche.  The team's defense would be several degrees better.

[nobleisthyname]

Let's not act like a .342 career OBP guy is someone who gets on base at an astounding rate. That's above average at best. I'm fine with bringing Bourn here but not on a 5year+ $100+ deal that he's going to want.

[Slateman]

Let's not act like a .342 career OBP guy is someone who gets on base at an astounding rate. That's above average at best. I'm fine with bringing Bourn here but not on a 5year+ $100+ deal that he's going to want.

Hence why I said a three year deal. Five years is too much. Then we start getting in to his mid-30s and having Goodwin on the bench because we're starting two over the hill, vastly overpaid outfielders. Three years is just about right.

And .342 is great when you consider the speed aspect. Especially when you consider the next available CF couldn't crack .300 last year.

[nobleisthyname]

Hence why I said a three year deal. Five years is too much. Then we start getting in to his mid-30s and having Goodwin on the bench because we're starting two over the hill, vastly overpaid outfielders. Three years is just about right.

And .342 is great when you consider the speed aspect. Especially when you consider the next available CF couldn't crack .300 last year.

I think speed is pretty overrated at the top of the lineup. If you're big hitters are coming up who cares if you're on first or second? It seems more valuable to me at the bottom of the lineup. Give me a .380 OBP guy (Werth) at leadoff over a .350 guy with speed (Bourn).

And who's the next available CFer? Harper would be our centerfielder if we don't get one from the market. He gets on base at roughly the same rate as Bourn.

[Kevrock]

Nats make a signing, per Craig Heist: F.P. Santangelo is coming back to the booth next year.  They offered a contract to Carp as well.

This better not block Charlie & Dave's development.

[NationalHeat]

Hence why I said a three year deal. Five years is too much. Then we start getting in to his mid-30s and having Goodwin on the bench because we're starting two over the hill, vastly overpaid outfielders. Three years is just about right.

And .342 is great when you consider the speed aspect. Especially when you consider the next available CF couldn't crack .300 last year.

Phils will offer more than 3 years. Maybe Pagan and Victorino are better options.

[Slateman]

I think speed is pretty overrated at the top of the lineup. If you're big hitters are coming up who cares if you're on first or second? It seems more valuable to me at the bottom of the lineup. Give me a .380 OBP guy (Werth) at leadoff over a .350 guy with speed (Bourn).

And who's the next available CFer? Harper would be our centerfielder if we don't get one from the market. He gets on base at roughly the same rate as Bourn.

lol, speed is overrated? Speed scores from first on extra base hits. Speed puts pressure on pitchers. Speed turns errors, walks, and singles in to doubles.  Speed manufactures runs. Werth is a career .366 OBP and in 2011 he had a .330 OBP. We will see how well he does, but I think .380 is extremely optimistic from Werth next season. I'd expect right in the .350-.360 range.

[wpa2629]

Yeah, pretty sure I'm being sarcastic about bringing in Goodwin

And yeah - no to Bourn

I like Harper better in Center - well on his way to being an elite defender, younger, much less expensive and under team control for the next 4+ years, and I like Werth better at leadoff, because well, he's just better at it

[nobleisthyname]

lol, speed is overrated? Speed scores from first on extra base hits. Speed puts pressure on pitchers. Speed turns errors, walks, and singles in to doubles.  Speed manufactures runs. Werth is a career .366 OBP and in 2011 he had a .330 OBP. We will see how well he does, but I think .380 is extremely optimistic from Werth next season. I'd expect right in the .350-.360 range.

Speed is overrated when you would you take it over a guy with an OBP 40 points higher.

[Kevrock]

lol, speed is overrated? Speed scores from first on extra base hits. Speed puts pressure on pitchers. Speed turns errors, walks, and singles in to doubles.  Speed manufactures runs. Werth is a career .366 OBP and in 2011 he had a .330 OBP. We will see how well he does, but I think .380 is extremely optimistic from Werth next season. I'd expect right in the .350-.360 range.

Hey Dulles Troll Road, he said it's overrated at the top of the lineup which is hardly a minority opinion anymore.

Personally I for speed, it's fun to watch base stealers.

[HalfSmokes]

lol, speed is overrated? Speed scores from first on extra base hits. Speed puts pressure on pitchers. Speed turns errors, walks, and singles in to doubles.  Speed manufactures runs. Werth is a career .366 OBP and in 2011 he had a .330 OBP. We will see how well he does, but I think .380 is extremely optimistic from Werth next season. I'd expect right in the .350-.360 range.

Speed doesn't score as much as power though,  look at the runs scored leaders and you see power hitters more than slap hitting speedsters (often with speed,  but rarely speed without power)

[cmdterps44]

I'd like LaRoche > Bourn but I wouldn't be upset if we got the latter for a short contract.

[HalfSmokes]

Bourne with a two or three deal would be fine,  but I can't see him getting that little

[mimontero88]

Speed doesn't score as much as power though,  look at the runs scored leaders and you see power hitters more than slap hitting speedsters (often with speed,  but rarely speed without power)

This is a pretty poor argument when applied specifically to the Bourn vs. LaRoche argument.  Bourn's 96 runs scored last year put him 6th in the National League and he has routinely been towards the top of runs scored over his career.  ALR is tied at 36th with 76 runs scored.

[imref]

given rizzo's history, i'd bet we trade for someone versus sign Bourn anyway. 

[Slateman]

Speed doesn't score as much as power though,  look at the runs scored leaders and you see power hitters more than slap hitting speedsters (often with speed,  but rarely speed without power)

I'm seeing Mike Trout and his 129 runs and 49 stolen bases out of 54 attempts well ahead of everyone else. I also see Braun, McCutcheon, and Justin Upton in the Top 5. They are all good baserunners and have good speed. Only one who isn't is Miggy and it took him having a career power year to do it. He hits 30 like last year and he's not in the top 5.

Sorry, but speed kills in this game. Speed scores from third on ground balls, second on sharp singles, scores from first on extra base hits, puts pressure on pitchers, and usually plays great defense.

This is a pretty poor argument when applied specifically to the Bourn vs. LaRoche argument.  Bourn's 96 runs scored last year put him 6th in the National League and he has routinely been towards the top of runs scored over his career.  ALR is tied at 36th with 76 runs scored.

But Laroche had 100 RBIs to Bourn's 57.

[cmdterps44]

Speed is very nice but I feel that it relies to much on the hitters behind the speedster to get the full use out of it. And knowing our history, we leave way too many runners on base.