2012 MLB Draft

[zimm_da_kid]

Renda signed for 500K:

https://twitter.com/jimcallisBA/status/213382688290242561

That's another 130K that can go towards Giolito.

good.  if we can get to around the $3 million mark, then i think we can sign giolito

[zimm_da_kid]

The Nationals gave first-round pick Lucas Giolito a grand tour of Nationals Park earlier today, writes Mark Zuckerman of NatsInsider.com.  The 17-year-old right-hander is a UCLA commit.

[RD]

So With Mooneyham and Benincasa left, were already over $3mill for Giolito. That includes going over by the max amount without punishment.

I would think we can find a little more to sweeten the pot between those two guys. Think were looking pretty good.

While he could double that amount in 3 years, that's a big risk. He'd have to move into the top 5 to improve his standing. While that is a probable outcome, that's still a risk. That's leaving open the possibility of injury(which should a major factor for ANY pitcher, let alone Giolito's situation) and the potential for not developing as expected. And of course, that's also waiting 3 years to get you career started.

Im pretty positive well get a deal done. Hard to turn down $3+ mill at 18. There's no reason for us to not spend the full, allotted amount either.

[zimm_da_kid]

and even if we can't get a deal done (which i think we will) we will have saved enough money that we could sign one or maybe evn two of Avis, Poteet, and Bolt.

[zoom]

i think the Padres signing Fried (for 3 million) will help our cause.  They were good friends and both UCLA commits. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Interesting to see how other teams are managing their bonus money.  The red sox just signed a 4th round pick for $1.3MM.  To make cap room, they signed 3 college seniors in the first 10 rounds for a total of $27K in bonuses ($25K, $1K, and $1K).

[Coladar]

Errr... A $1k bonus for a top ten round pick? That's hardly enough to take friends and family to a nice dinner. Jesus, I didn't realize considering the millions some make, a grand is it for others. Considering the $$$$$$$$$$$ of MLB, that seems laughable and insulting both to me, but I guess there are millions who would pay them money to be drafted to play pro ball. Still, a grand for their signing bonus, by the Red Sox no less... Ouch.

[Kevrock]

Take it or leave it, thank Selig and the MLBPA.

No incentive for college athletes to stay four years.

[HalfSmokes]

I'm surprised some didnt hold out for more considering the team can't apply the difference if they don't sign

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'm surprised some didnt hold out for more considering the team can't apply the difference if they don't sign

well, it is the seniors that are signing for cheap.  They can play in an MLB organization who has some interest in them, they can say to heck with it and go into the recovering job market (wherever that is), or they can play indy ball and work a second job.  sign quick, they get onto the short season ball club and maybe skip GCL.  Impress, and they get on track.  I've got a feeling these signability guys are lined up by each team in advance.

[HalfSmokes]

It's funny - it looks like they avoided the Stanford , Cal, UVA, UNC players who might be insulted by a smaller signing bonus than their buddies not playing sports

[Squab]

Robert Benincasa’s Slidepiece
Here’s Florida State reliever Robert Benincasa’s (7th round, Washington) slider, from a game in which he pitched 4.0 innings of relief, stiking out a third (5 of 15) of the batters he faced.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/daily-notes-college-world-series-is-romp-of-emotion/

[sportsfan882]

Very nice pitch. Hopefully he can be what Dean Weaver and Zech Zinicola weren't and help us out of the pen in a year or two.

[Tyler Durden]

The next Brad Lidge! 

[DPMOmaha]

The next Brad Lidge! 

If it's a young Lidge, Sign me up!

[sportsfan882]

“@lacylusk: #Nats 7th-round pick Robert Benincasa nails down the save as Florida State beats UCLA to stay alive in the College World Series.”

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Boras on the new MLB draft rules:

Boras is upset about the new draft rules that limit what teams can spend. “It’s unfortunate that it’s turned into a mockery,’’ he said. “Teams are telling their scouting departments that they have to choose players that will sign for a nominal amount of money using their 6-10 picks so they can sign their top picks. The minute we start doing that, we are, in effect, we’re saying to scouting, your job with that sixth-round pick is really the 20th- or 25th- round pick.’’

[HalfSmokes]

Boras on the new MLB draft rules:

there has to be a tipping point where enough teams do this that you can get good previous 6th round talent in the 10th, and where having essentially 4 sixth round picks is more valuable than taking a risk on an over slot first rounder

[Lintyfresh85]

No amount of sixth round picks will ever amount to the talent you get with that first round pick.

Just look at the hit rates of every round. There's a reason why first round picks are first round picks.

[HalfSmokes]

What is the hit rate for bottom of the first round (ie where we're picking next year)

[Lintyfresh85]

A hell of a lot better than a sixth round pick.

[HalfSmokes]

A hell of a lot better than a sixth round pick.

Meaning noone has any idea

[Lintyfresh85]

Actually they do. I just can't pull it up on my phone.

[HalfSmokes]

http://mobile.mlbbonusbaby.com/2011/7/3/2255951/mlb-draft-success-rates
This worthlessness is the only one I can find on my phone- apparently 6th rounder Jucos have a 15% chance of being regular starters. Based on his numbers, I migh prefer going slot all the way since you'd get a better second rounder and the gap between fist supp (which seems closer to late first than first which includes what should be no miss picks at the top) and second isn't huge and you'd get to pick better players down the line, but his numbers seem very flawed

[houston-nat]

What is the hit rate for bottom of the first round (ie where we're picking next year)

Here are some guys drafted between 24 and 32.
Mike Trout - 25, 2009
Christian Friedrich - 25, 2008
Daniel Schlereth - 26, 2008
Lonnie Chisenhall - 29, 2008
Rick Porcello - 27, 2007
Ben Revere - 28, 2007
Daniel Bard - 28, 2006
Brian Bogusevic - 24, 2005 (as LHP, now OF)
Matt Garza - 25, 2005
Colby Rasmus - 28, 2005
Blake DeWitt - 28, 2004

Of course, there's a lot of utter garbage, too, including a lot of guys who don't even have Wikipedia pages. And #22 pick Ryan Perry. The chance of scoring Mike Trout is pretty freaking small - but really, really good scouting is your best bet. We could at least pick up a utility guy, fringe regular, or backfill starter.