Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP

[Slateman]

This is great, and honestly, I could see leaving him in Low A ball for most of the year. He really needs to get a handle on that change. We've seen what Strasburg can do with his. Let him really develop it and then refine it next year in High A and Double A.

[RD]

Ive always believed that you take your time with kids at the lower levels, and you can rush them later if needed. I think its easier to work on things at the lower levels (less polished talent) and confidence is a key factor. If you work on things and get shelled, you may not get that confidence back.

Esoecially coming off an injury, Id have no problem with him staying in low A all year. Put him in Potomac to start next year, and a possible promotion when ready. Hell likely get half a year at AA next year. Then whether he starts in AA OR AAA in 2016, he may be ready come June for a promotion to the bigs. Gwtting him through this year healthy and confident is the main goal imo. Let him take off next year and dictate his readiness.

[Slateman]

Ive always believed that you take your time with kids at the lower levels, and you can rush them later if needed. I think its easier to work on things at the lower levels (less polished talent) and confidence is a key factor. If you work on things and get shelled, you may not get that confidence back.

Esoecially coming off an injury, Id have no problem with him staying in low A all year. Put him in Potomac to start next year, and a possible promotion when ready. Hell likely get half a year at AA next year. Then whether he starts in AA OR AAA in 2016, he may be ready come June for a promotion to the bigs. Gwtting him through this year healthy and confident is the main goal imo. Let him take off next year and dictate his readiness.

Agreed.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

There are a few people on this board who I generally think are the final word in most conversations.  RD when it comes to the farm board is #1.  NJ Ave is close to that on the main board.

[Matugi]

I see what you guys are saying, and I like that idea, too.  I have no problem with the Nats keeping him around lower levels to develop his pitches.  I guess this is where you ignore what the stats say and just let him throw what he needs to throw to improve and such.

[Slateman]

I see what you guys are saying, and I like that idea, too.  I have no problem with the Nats keeping him around lower levels to develop his pitches.  I guess this is where you ignore what the stats say and just let him throw what he needs to throw to improve and such.

Yep. It's about developing that change, learning how to throw the curve for strikes and balls, learning how to hit the black with the fastball, and building up arm strength.

Nationals fans have been spoiled. They're too used to their guys making it to the MLB team in a year or two. Most teams wait 3-5 seasons to get them going.

[tomterp]

Mid season prospectus ranking update:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=24076

7. RHP Lucas Giolito (Nationals)
 
Placement on pre-season 101: #13
 
Current MiLB level/Affiliate: Low-A Hagerstown

Developmental Update: The training wheels are nearly off in terms of development with Giolito. On his best nights, he flashes two elite offerings in the fastball and curveball. Both pitches are capable of doing extreme damage in the majors, with the curveball one of the best pitches currently in the minors. Giolito has the makings of a front-end starter with the giant frame and fastball/curve combo, but there is still some risk in terms of long-term health and the development of the changeup. Regardless, this is the prospect in the minors that offers the highest ceiling and could very well solidify a Washington rotation with top-end talent. –Tucker Blair

And most recent scouting report from June 15:   http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_pit.php?reportid=144

[blue911]

BPs top ranked pitcher

[sportsfan882]

#11 on BA's Mid-Season Top 50.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-50-injury-cant-knock-buxton-1/

[Slateman]

Just take our time. This guy is going to be a good one but we'll have to wait on him.

[sportsfan882]

meh outing tonight.

4 IP 7 H 4 R 3 ER 3 BB 6 K.

[Matugi]

meh outing tonight.

4 IP 7 H 4 R 3 ER 3 BB 6 K.

If he was working on the changeup then that's fine.  Prime reason to ignore the stats and just let him work it out.

[sportsfan882]

holy crap

And it is with that similar context that I can confidently say Lucas Giolito is the best pitcher I've seen at that level since Jose Fernandez.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=24120

[sportsfan882]

Very interesting stuff here:

The changeups are where this gets really interesting. At this level, Fernandez threw almost none because he simply didn't have to. In the bullpen before the game, however, you could see that the pitch was there, and that it had potential to be yet another weapon. It wasn't on the elite level of his other pitches, but it was good enough to be an unfair addition for a pitcher who could already make a baseball do the things he could.

The same can be said for Giolito, but he is not satisfied with terrorizing the Sally League with fast and curveballs. A sign of extreme maturity, he is willing to sacrifice current success for future development. That's simply not a 19-year-old thing to do.

Giolito used his curveball sparingly on this night because it was a night clearly dedicated toward the development of his changeup. He threw the tertiary pitch frequently, to hitters left-handed and right, early in the count and late, when ahead or behind. The pitch is a work in progress. It doesn't have great movement, although it shows much more life in mid-inning warmups, something I haven't seen often. The ones he threw in games, however, where thrown for strikes with relative consistency, and with arm action identical to the rest of his pitches, creating great natural deception. Even without the movement, the pitch was effective, generating swings and misses thanks to the change in velocity. It's a pitch not nearly on the level of his other offerings, but one that has potential.

[Squab]

Everything I've heard about the way he's pitching right now is that he's just throwing changeups like crazy.

[Matugi]

Everything I've heard about the way he's pitching right now is that he's just throwing changeups like crazy.

Good to hear, that's the way it needs to be

[stealyerbase]

Looking forward to a Hagerstown trip to see this kid. I guess he'll pitch in the Futures game for an inning, then back to the Suns. Too bad, he'd have been in Hagerstown throwing this week and I'd have been there watching!

[PC]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/futures-showcase-who-do-general-managers-want-to-see?ymd=20140713&content_id=84498724&vkey=news_mlb

[PC]

Lucas gave it up.  Didn't even finish his inning.

[BossDetwiler]

Hell of a hook to sit down Vargas.

[blue911]

The pitch Gallo hit was ridiculous

Edit: Baez not Gallo

Edit 2: Start at :40 to see the pitch Baez hit.


http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/chc/cubs-prospect-javier-baez-hits-two-run-homer-in-all-star-futures-game?ymd=20140713&content_id=84604296&vkey=news_chc

[Slateman]

The pitch Gallo hit was ridiculous

Edit: Baez not Gallo

Edit 2: Start at :40 to see the pitch Baez hit.


http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/chc/cubs-prospect-javier-baez-hits-two-run-homer-in-all-star-futures-game?ymd=20140713&content_id=84604296&vkey=news_chc

Looks like a curveball that got hung.

[blue911]

Hung = no break.

[Slateman]

Hung = no break.

No, hung means it didn't break enough to fool the batter. That thing didn't break much and it ended up over the plate.

[blue911]

No, hung means it didn't break enough to fool the batter. That thing didn't break much and it ended up over the plate.

They're called cement mixers for a reason. They spin but don't move. Baez just put a hell of a swing on it. It was high which didn't help but it wasn't hung.