New ZiPS projection has the Nats finishing 88-74, 3 games back of ATL:
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7876996/with-bryce-harper-cliff-lee-dl-philadelphia-phillies-no-longer-projected-winner-nl-east-mlb?addata=2009_insdr_mod_mlb_xxx_xxx 30.9% chance of making the post season.
No team in the division has done more to help itself this season than the first-place Nats. While Stephen Strasburg's durability in the long haul is still a question, his post-Tommy John performance isn't. These projections were made with the expectation that the Nats keep Bryce Harper in the big leagues, and even with ZiPS not expecting him to be a star quite yet (projected line for rest of the season: .240/.319/.401), he's a solid improvement over Rick Ankiel (rest-of-season ZiPS line of .232 AVG/.291 OBP/.387 SLG) and Roger Bernadina (.234/.298/.363).
ZiPS projects a great deal of regression from Ross Detwiler -- his FIP well more than a run higher compared to his ERA, and he doesn't have much of a resume of success starting, but he's looking less and less like a potential disaster. In the lead by a half-game at the moment, Washington now has to play only within six games of the Marlins and 3.5 of the Phillies to finish no worse than second in the division.
