2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread

[NJ Ave]

Personally, I'm hoping that Rizzo is starting from the viewpoint of "Bryce Harper + Michael Morse/Tyler Moore = 8 wins for $8 million in 2013".

If you can improve on that, great. Otherwise, use the extra money to build up the bullpen, get a really good fifth starter, etc. Hell, if he thinks that Tyler Moore can produce almost as well as Michael Morse, trade Morse and sign Greinke if you want. Greinke + Moore could easily be better than Upton + Random Fifth Starter Bargain at same $20 million cost per season.

[nobleisthyname]

CF Bryce Harper + LF Mike Morse or Tyler Moore > CF Dexter Fowler + LF Bryce Harper anyways, so why give up anything?

Fowler is a poor defensive CF with declining speed whose bat likely doesn't play in the corners when you take him out of Coors. At best, he's a fringy-hitting corner outfielder outside of Coors (184-point OPS split career home/away).

I was about to go on a rant why it would be a horrible idea to get Fowler but this sums it up pretty well; I would have used .wOBA over OPS but the point remains the same.

[Tyler Durden]

Why is Fowler's speed declining?  He's like 25 or 26.

Not many players have shown well defensively at Coors (mindfact - if fangraphs or baseball-reference breaks down defensive runs saved by player/position and stadium/venue, then please point me in that direction).

Fowler gets on base and while he may not have as many homers away from Coors, he'd still be a decent hitter and solid CF. 

[Slateman]

CF Bryce Harper + LF Mike Morse or Tyler Moore > CF Dexter Fowler + LF Bryce Harper anyways, so why give up anything?

Fowler is a poor defensive CF with declining speed whose bat likely doesn't play in the corners when you take him out of Coors. At best, he's a fringy-hitting corner outfielder outside of Coors (184-point OPS split career home/away).

He's 26. His speed is not declining.

Coors field is one of those places where the metrics simply don't work. Not a single Rockies outfielder has posted a positive UZR with more than 500 innings played at that position in the last two years. In the last 4, only Seth Smith has done it.  Willy Tavaras didn't post a postitive UZR either. But as soon as he went to Cincy, he put up 9.6 UZR.

I'm not saying he's awesome, but he is certainly serviceable. Trading a guy like Skole or Moore for him wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. He has a career slash of .271/.364/.427. I'd take that out of the leadoff spot. He's under team control for another 3 years. His defense would be fine here in DC. We'd have a top of the lineup that would see a lot of pitches, get on base, and have some speed to score on extra base hits.

Fowler CF
Werth RF/LF
Zimmerman 3B
Morse 1B
Harper LF/RF
Desmond SS
Espinosa 2B
Ramos C
Pitcher

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Smith and Holliday had pretty good track records for Colorado defensively. 

[Slateman]

Played LF. Had a lot fewer responsibilities than a CFer at Coors

[Mattionals]

What about Ichiro on a one or two year deal?  He could man LF and is a left handed bat.

[blue911]

What about Ichiro on a one or two year deal?  He could man LF and is a left handed bat.

He had a .310 OBP in 2011 and a .307 last season.

[Mattionals]

Screw it.  Just bring up Rendon to start the season and put Zimm on first.  Morse in LF.

[imref]

i'd love Fowler, and as much as I'd hate to see him go - imagine what Tyler Moore would do in Colorado.

[zimm_da_kid]

Colorado is not dealing fowler

[Lintyfresh85]

What about H-Rod for CarGo?

[Kevrock]

Screw it.  Just bring up Rendon to start the season and put Zimm on first.  Morse in LF.

How about no bear.

[HalfSmokes]

What about H-Rod for CarGo?

we could throw in Maya

[Tyler Durden]

Arizona could trade Kubel instead of Upton.  Left handed bat to replace LaRoche?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/rosenthal-on-royals-uehara-dbacks-span-catching.html

Kubel and Morse would be about the same as Morse and LaRoche.  Signed for 7.5 mil this year and then a 7.5 mil option for next year. 

[Mattionals]

Arizona could trade Kubel instead of Upton.  Left handed bat to replace LaRoche?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/rosenthal-on-royals-uehara-dbacks-span-catching.html

Kubel and Morse would be about the same as Morse and LaRoche.  Signed for 7.5 mil this year and then a 7.5 mil option for next year.

What would it take to get him?  Don't the D-Backs need a 3B and SP?  D-Backs don't project to be a good trade partner for us so it would need to be some sort of three team deal.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I was on the Kubel Choo train earlier in the offseason. Kubel would be more of a power replacement but is viewed as a bad fielder.  Not the classic Rizzo beef.  Choo had a bad year in the field (first bad year).  Otherwise, he has been a good defensive player. His power is not that great, but he is a terrific OBP guy.  He could go into the #2 slot and allow you to drop Bryce down to 4th or 5th.

[NJ Ave]

Willy Tavaras didn't post a postitive UZR either. But as soon as he went to Cincy, he put up 9.6 UZR.

Willy Taveras in Coors was 1.5 defensive wins better than Dexter Fowler according to both Total Zone and UZR. So if you're going by that, and Taveras is a 1 win defensive player outside of Coors, Fowler is likely to be slightly below average.

And I distrust defensive metrics as well. So go ahead and find me a single scouting mention of Fowler having decent defense. Everything I read is below average.

If you apply ESPN's park factors to bring Fowler's Coors Field numbers down to a neutral offensive environment (which Nationals Park is, roughly), you get a slash line of .260/.362/.405. I think that would be a reasonable expectation. You're getting like a Denard Span or Michael Brantley. Not to say that's not valuable, but why is it more valuable than what we have now? I mean, if you want that, just put Roger Bernadina in LF and have him lead off. Don't waste an asset when Colorado is going to be looking for a lot more than Skole or Moore for him.

[Tyler Durden]

Willy Taveras in Coors was 1.5 defensive wins better than Dexter Fowler according to both Total Zone and UZR. So if you're going by that, and Taveras is a 1 win defensive player outside of Coors, Fowler is likely to be slightly below average.

And I distrust defensive metrics as well. So go ahead and find me a single scouting mention of Fowler having decent defense. Everything I read is below average.

If you apply ESPN's park factors to bring Fowler's Coors Field numbers down to a neutral offensive environment (which Nationals Park is, roughly), you get a slash line of .260/.362/.405. I think that would be a reasonable expectation. You're getting like a Denard Span or Michael Brantley. Not to say that's not valuable, but why is it more valuable than what we have now? I mean, if you want that, just put Roger Bernadina in LF and have him lead off. Don't waste an asset when Colorado is going to be looking for a lot more than Skole or Moore for him.

These are very good points and good research on the Coors effect on defensive numbers, even if you don't fully buy into them. 

I guess I'll just say that Fowler looks like he fields well when I've seen him play.  I do remember him making a couple of bad plays when we played the ROckies, however.

I don't think I could say with much confidence that Bernadina would put up those numbers over the course of a full season.  Otherwise, you are right - he'd have the job as full time left fielder and leadoff hitter.

[Slateman]

Willy Taveras in Coors was 1.5 defensive wins better than Dexter Fowler according to both Total Zone and UZR. So if you're going by that, and Taveras is a 1 win defensive player outside of Coors, Fowler is likely to be slightly below average.

And I distrust defensive metrics as well. So go ahead and find me a single scouting mention of Fowler having decent defense. Everything I read is below average.

If you apply ESPN's park factors to bring Fowler's Coors Field numbers down to a neutral offensive environment (which Nationals Park is, roughly), you get a slash line of .260/.362/.405. I think that would be a reasonable expectation. You're getting like a Denard Span or Michael Brantley. Not to say that's not valuable, but why is it more valuable than what we have now? I mean, if you want that, just put Roger Bernadina in LF and have him lead off. Don't waste an asset when Colorado is going to be looking for a lot more than Skole or Moore for him.

Tavaras posted negative UZR and DRS. He wasn't any better in CF yet magically, he plays elsewhere and he's a defensive stud.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/prospects/y2009/profile.jsp?t=p_top&pid=451594

Colorado won't be getting a whole lot more than Skole/Moore for him and they know it.

[NJ Ave]

Tavaras posted negative UZR and DRS. He wasn't any better in CF yet magically, he plays elsewhere and he's a defensive stud.

I think my point was that Willy Taveras actually WAS statistically better than Dexter Fowler. Somewhere between a half win and 1.5 wins better defensively per year, depending on your metric.

Willy Taveras averaged -2.5 DRS/season while in Coors, while Dexter Fowler was -10 last year, Fowler is .6 wins behind Taveras per season in UZR (-12.9 vs. -7), and Fowler is 1.3 wins behind Taveras per season in Total Zone (-8 vs. +5).

These are not equivalent.

Furthermore, going old-school, Willy Taveras is widely touted as a fantastic defensive CF, while Dexter Fowler is not.

However, they both played the same position for the Colorado Rockies, so they must be equivalent. Much like Larry Walker and Michael Cuddyer.

[Tyler Durden]

Nats sign a lefty - Fernando Abad.  Major league numbers not much to write home about.  But very impressive K rates in the minors -

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abadfe01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=abad--001fer

I'd never heard of him, but from his numbers, it looks like he's a hard throwing lefty with strikeout stuff.  Could be the fallback in case the Nats miss out on both Burnett and Gonzalez.

[Vega]

Nats sign a lefty - Fernando Abad.  Major league numbers not much to write home about.  But very impressive K rates in the minors -

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abadfe01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=abad--001fer

I'd never heard of him, but from his numbers, it looks like he's a hard throwing lefty with strikeout stuff.  Could be the fallback in case the Nats miss out on both Burnett and Gonzalez.

I'd prefer not to give much playing time to a guy who got released by Houston.

[DPMOmaha]

I made that same move to sign Abad in OOTP 13.

[imref]

I made that same move to sign Abad in OOTP 13.

i'd rather sign adebisi.