The question becomes, who is most likely to repeat, or hit closer, to their career year?
From a probability view, Morse. Because there is more data on LaRoche to indicate that 2012 was a spike, and no such data on Morse. For Morse, it was his first full season, and 2012 may be discounted because of injuries. On the other hand if the question were posed: who is more likely to hit 25 homeruns and drive in 100 runs, it's LaRoche.