Red Sox sign Crawford

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Pretty sure you have someone else confused with me.

"How dare you call a FOX NFL announcer biased!  WHERE'S YOUR PROOF, GRRRRRRRR"

[NatsDad14]

338 is a very substantial sample size, and it's a 100% sample of his Fenway PA's.

Try this Sample Size calculator, you'll find that 338 gives you a pretty high level of confidence that your sample is close to the actual performance over a much larger population.


http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

It's not really substantial. That .301/.406 line translates to about a .311 wOBA. with 338 PA, 1 SD of wOBA is .027. 2 SD which is statistically significant is .54. That means his true wOBA could range from .257 (Alberto Gonzalez)-.365. .365 is about what David Wright, Victor Martinez, A-Rod, Ryan Howard, and Colby Rasmus hit last year. When you factor that the 338 PA is spread over 9 seasons it doesn't really mean much.

[tomterp]

It's not really substantial. That .301/.406 line translates to about a .311 wOBA. with 338 PA, 1 SD of wOBA is .027. 2 SD which is statistically significant is .54. That means his true wOBA could range from .257 (Alberto Gonzalez)-.365. .365 is about what David Wright, Victor Martinez, A-Rod, Ryan Howard, and Colby Rasmus hit last year. When you factor that the 338 PA is spread over 9 seasons it doesn't really mean much.

He's not going to hit like David Wright or Victor or any of the other 2 SD guys on the upside.  He ought to be able to improve a tick or two from his current average just by getting more comfortable in the park, but I would predict a very modest improvement.

[NatsDad14]

He's not going to hit like David Wright or Victor or any of the other 2 SD guys on the upside.  He ought to be able to improve a tick or two from his current average just by getting more comfortable in the park, but I would predict a very modest improvement.

He probably won't hit like them hence why it is the 97.5 percentile of his stats. I would expect something like .290/.350/.460 for Crawford with good defense and steals.

[tomterp]

He probably won't hit like them hence why it is the 97.5 percentile of his stats. I would expect something like .290/.350/.460 for Crawford with good defense and steals.

But what about his 81 games in Fenway, what sort of slash would you expect?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

But what about his 81 games in Fenway, what sort of slash would you expect?

.315 / .345 / .430 - .775 OPS next year.  See post  #43.  The .340 - .350  BABIPs are sustainable for a guy with Crawford's speed. Ellsbury has a career .327 BABIP at Fenway, and has been able to maintain a .301 / .361 / .441 line.  I don't see Crawford doing significantly worse.