Morse or LaRoche

[mitlen]

Honourable Mitlen-선배

Did not know you were Korean. 

미안합니다

I was speakin' from my Irish side (LOL).   My grandfather used to tell me about "Irish need not apply."   Then you have the whole IRA/Orange thing.    Like Korea, much of the turmoil in Ireland was caused by outside forces.   Your message caused a conversation in my household about the Peninsula and all the crap they've seen.   My wife is 1/2 Japanese.   She knows the story (part of it anyway).

[WhiteWhale]

I guess, but it seems a little panicky.  He's said he wants to be back, they've said they want him back, I don't think he's gone by any means if negotiations stretch past the exclusivity window.

I've heard this before about a first baseman named Adam.

Not disagreeing with your sentiment. Hope it does not go like last time.

[HalfSmokes]

the only cause for concern is if the presence of Moore and Morse means we value him less than other teams, which is possible

[blue911]

I was speakin' from my Irish side (LOL).   My grandfather used to tell me about "Irish need not apply."   Then you have the whole IRA/Orange thing.    Like Korea, much of the turmoil in Ireland was caused by outside forces.   Your message caused a conversation in my household about the Peninsula and all the crap they've seen.   My wife is 1/2 Japanese.   She knows the story (part of it anyway).

Nina laws. (No Irish Need Apply)

[blue911]

Yes, panic. Exactly. There are too many teams out there ready to throw ridiculous money at him.

LaRoche has a week to judge the market and if he goes elsewhere, good for him. Nobody in there right mind would A) sign him to an extension in the spring or B) sign an extension,once he started to produce.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Remember the "winner's curse" in auctions like free agency.  It is the one who values the asset the highest who wins the auction. There's a tendency to overbid, unless you have unique information or the asset has unique value.

With ALR, a few teams might be willing to take the risk that they are overbidding because he offers a unique combo of skills (good lefty pop even if he reverts to his career averages and an ability to make your defense look better than it is).

[rbw5t]

So, what do we think the hold up is on signing LaRoche?  Both sides they want to stick together.  I bet it's years more than dollars.  Based on nothing, my gut is the Nats would like to sign him for something like 3 yrs/$42M, and that he is looking for a 4 year deal.  Anyone else want to engage in rank speculation on where both sides are?  I hope they announce tonight they've locked him up!

[JCA-CrystalCity]

If you enjoy the analysis that Dave Cameron does on contracts, he suggests in this that 3/$36MM is risky but not crazy.  He was comparing the consensus estimates of the crowdsourcing exercise readers do on Fangraphs to his thoughts about the players.  Here is his take:

20. Adam LaRoche, 1B: 3 years, $36 million

I endorse this price with some hesitation, as LaRoche is clearly coming off a career year at age 32, and this could look like a silly overreaction to recent performance if some of the improvement isn’t real. Still, the increased power and reduced K% (relative to league average) give some hope that there’s been sustainable changes made, and he doesn’t have to carry them over for that long to be worth $36 million. If he’s even a +3 win player in 2013 and then ages normally, this is a deal worth doing. If he goes back to being a +2 win guy, then it’s probably a bit of an overpay, but there’s enough potential there to make it worth a shot.

If the crowd thinks this is what he is getting, then the team will make a qualifying offer, which he will reject, and then the team will get into a bidding war for him.

[Boss Dealwiler]

If the crowd thinks this is what he is getting, then the team will make a qualifying offer, which he will reject, and then the team will get into a bidding war for him.

You're basing this on what?

[Ray D]

3 years/36M.  That's a fair offer, and he isn't worth more.  Rizzo should offer that. If he rejects it, let him go.

[Lintyfresh85]

He isn't worth three years. Two and a club option.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Boss- you make the qualifying offer if you think you would not be burned if ALR took it.  If most people think he will make an AAV of $12MM and get a contract of 3 years, then you can't be burned too bad if he takes 1 year, $13.3MM.

From ALR's perspective, you probably think it is safe to reject that offer, even if you are willing to take less than the market to stay in DC.  If Rizzo will not budge off 2 years at $10MM AAV, you will probably have to go elsewhere, but you can console yourself with the extra year you are likely to get and the extra $10MM plus you are likely to get over the life of that contract.

[blue911]

How was last season a "Career Year"?  2006 he had a higher BA, higher OBP, higher SLG, higher ISO, he had more XBH in 90 fewer PA, a higher OPS+ and yet last season was a career year? 

[imref]

this is starting to feel like draft deadline night, we'll be watching the clock until midnight to see if we can sign him before he goes elsewhere.

[Boss Dealwiler]

Boss- you make the qualifying offer if you think you would not be burned if ALR took it.  If most people think he will make an AAV of $12MM and get a contract of 3 years, then you can't be burned too bad if he takes 1 year, $13.3MM.

I understand that, my question is what makes you think the team is going to offer what "crowdsourcers" say.

[Kevrock]

this is starting to feel like draft deadline night, we'll be watching the clock until midnight to see if we can sign him before he goes elsewhere.

We aren't signing him before then.

[lastobjective]

this is starting to feel like draft deadline night, we'll be watching the clock until midnight to see if we can sign him before he goes elsewhere.

Why do we have to sign him before tonight new to FA stuff

[Mattionals]

We aren't signing him before then.

Then we aren't signing him.  Red Sox have a much higher need.  My bet is Rizzo has Ben Cherrington on hold as to if LaRoche returns.  If he does, he takes Ben off hold and gives him Morse, Clippard, maybe Meyer and another prospect for Ellsbury.

[blue911]

Why do we have to sign him before tonight new to FA stuff

After midnight LaRoche can sign with any team.

[ZIM4MVP]

The Nationals extended a qualifying offer to Adam LaRoche, Evan Drellich of MLB.com reports (on Twitter). The free agent first baseman now has one week to accept or decline the offer.

If LaRoche accepts, he’ll earn $13.3MM on a one-year deal in 2013. If he declines, he’ll be linked to draft pick compensation in free agency -- his new team will have to surrender a top selection to sign him. LaRoche ranks 15th on MLBTR’s list of top 50 free agents.


Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/nationals-make-adam-laroche-qualifying-offer.html#WEBRtUgmvu6wsEuK.99

[lastobjective]

And what exactly is a qualifying offer? And is it a 1 yr/$13.3MM deal or am I confused?

After midnight LaRoche can sign with any team.

Thanks.

[blue911]

And what exactly is a qualifying offer? And is it a 1 yr/$13.3MM deal or am I confused?

Thanks.

MLBtraderumors.com had a piece on it this AM.

[Mattionals]

And what exactly is a qualifying offer? And is it a 1 yr/$13.3MM deal or am I confused?

Thanks.

In years past the CBA broke down free agents into "types".  I forget how they actually graded players, but basically speaking a Type A free agent when signed by a new team, gave 2 compensation round(between first and second round) draft picks to the team that the player originally came from.  Type B FA gave one draft pick in that round.  The idea was that small market teams who couldn't sign players to a long term deal would turn around and get fair market compensation to develop new young talent.  Small market teams such as Tampa did very well with this very system.

The problem ensued when many teams would trade for a rental player mid-season and use that player to try and stock pile picks in the draft.  The new CBA throws out the old system and makes every free agent available to what is called a qualifying offer.  The qualifying offer is a one year deal based off of the average median salary for players or something akin to that.  This year that value is 13.3 Million.  If a player declines a qualifying offer and instead choose to become a free agent AND don't sign with the team that extended the qualifying offer, THEN the team that extended the offer gets ONE compensation round draft pick.

This system keeps everyone in check, or at least it is thought to.  For instance, last year Mike Rizzo acquired Jonny Gomes from the Reds in hopes that he would be a Type B Free Agent and would garner a compensation pick.  Now under the new CBA, no GM or owner in their right mind would offer a one year 13.3 Million dollar deal to Jonny Gomes because he isn't worth that much money and he would most definitely take it.  This way, mediocre talent can't be turned into a high round pick.

As a side note, Jonny Gomes stunk up so bad last year that he didn't even qualify as a Type B free agent so there was no compensation pick.

[lastobjective]

MLBtraderumors.com had a piece on it this AM.

Thanks.

Link for any other confused people http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/explaining-qualifying-offers.html

[Boss Dealwiler]

Draft picks.