NYTimes: "What Umpires Get Wrong"

[welch]

Interestng article in NY Times describing research on ball-or-strike mistakes by umpires.

 Braden King and Jerry Kim write:

In research soon to be published in the journal Management Science, we studied umpires’ strike-zone calls using pitch-location data compiled by the high-speed cameras introduced by Major League Baseball several years ago in an effort to measure, monitor and reward umpires’ accuracy. After analyzing more than 700,000 pitches thrown during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, we found that umpires frequently made errors behind the plate — about 14 percent of non-swinging pitches were called erroneously.

A few of the findings are consistent with things we had heard or suspected. The researchers found a bias toward pitchers who, over a career, were known to have good control. Eddie Yost, Washington's leadoff hitter who routinely led the AL in walks, felt that at some point, umpires gave him the close pitches...if Yost didn't swing, then it probably was a ball.

Full article at:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/30/opinion/sunday/what-umpires-get-wrong.html?rref=opinion&module=Ribbon&version=origin&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Opinion&pgtype=article

[PowerBoater69]

Only 14% wrong is pretty darn good considering the speed and movement of the ball.  Bet even Jayson couldn't break the 90% mark.

[blue911]

Interestng article in NY Times describing research on ball-or-strike mistakes by umpires.

 Braden King and Jerry Kim write:

A few of the findings are consistent with things we had heard or suspected. The researchers found a bias toward pitchers who, over a career, were known to have good control. Eddie Yost, Washington's leadoff hitter who routinely led the AL in walks, felt that at some point, umpires gave him the close pitches...if Yost didn't swing, then it probably was a ball.

Full article at:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/30/opinion/sunday/what-umpires-get-wrong.html?rref=opinion&module=Ribbon&version=origin&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Opinion&pgtype=article

Any idea why they used old data when current data is available?

[EdStroud]

"If Dennis Eckersley was on the mound, a fastball four or five inches off the plate was a strike. If Cal Ripken Jr. didn't swing at a pitch, it was a ball. If Gary DiSarcina(Utility player) drew a walk, Halley's Comet flew overhead that night." - Gary DiSarcinia

[welch]

Any idea why they used old data when current data is available?

Not mentioned in the Times article, so I won't guess. Might be in the journal article, when it's published.

Incidentally,

- Ted Williams estimated that a big league umpire could judge a pitch within an inch, and he, at the plate, could judge within a half-inch ("Science of Hitting"). I don't remember Williams ever being called out on strikes. Indication of bias for Willaims and against Nats' pitchers...bad teams, bad pitchers (except for Pascual).

- When I played, I thought I knew the strike-zone exactly. did not stike out during my last three or four seasons. Then I umpired youth baseball for almost ten years, and it was beyond just "hard". I agree with PB69: 14% is great.

[Count Walewski]

Late career Greg Maddux (his second stint with the Cubs) was probably the most egregious example of umpires giving a known control pitcher a wider strike zone that I've seen in my lifetime.

[houston-nat]

Late career Greg Maddux (his second stint with the Cubs) was probably the most egregious example of umpires giving a known control pitcher a wider strike zone that I've seen in my lifetime.

Livan Hernandez was legendary for this. "Clearly, absolutely clearly, Hernandez wasn’t throwing to the same zone as all the rest of the pitchers in baseball. This was a demonstrated skill for him." It looks like the rate of pitches taken outside the strike zone, that were called strikes, was about double for Livan Hernandez compared to the rest of the league.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Livan Hernandez was legendary for this. "Clearly, absolutely clearly, Hernandez wasn’t throwing to the same zone as all the rest of the pitchers in baseball. This was a demonstrated skill for him." It looks like the rate of pitches taken outside the strike zone, that were called strikes, was about double for Livan Hernandez compared to the rest of the league.

He probably threatened to ball-bust the home plate umps.