Trading Desmond?

[HalfSmokes]

Change them to home runs and he's an MVP

[welch]

Heard at CITIField after Mets rally was snuffed, in part by Desmond snare of line drive: "Who the [blank] makes that catch?!??"

[tomterp]

Yes but how often do we have bases loaded? I mean how is he just with any RISP? seems like that would be the most telling stat, wouldn't it?

Lots of different ways to look at it - look down to the "Bases Occupied" section below with this link:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=desmoia01&year=&t=b

Note at top that Ian is .282 /.344 /.418 / .762  with RISP versus .250/ .308/ .423/ .731 with nobody on.  Consistent but better with runners on.  He's particularly good with runners on 2nd and 3rd or bases loaded as we've already discussed.

[PC]

I wouldn't want to be the one who has to decide what to do with Desmond.  What he gives you offensively from the shortstop position is so rare and likely not replaceable but what's wrong with his game is so apparent and disturbing, I'm terrified to give him a big, long term deal.

If they don't resign Desmond, Rizzo will have decided to make the team precipitously weaker right now but is it worth paying for Desmond's decline years when his decline years are likely to be particularly hideous because the current warts in his game are going to get much worse over time.

[mmzznnxx]

If you think he swings recklessly now, wait until he doesn't have a huge contract to play for anymore. And in a few years when he's older, he won't be as athletic on defense and won't be able to turn on pitches as easily. The errors and strikeouts will only continue and worsen. I don't think he's worth it just because he hits a lot of dingers.

[MorseTheHorse]

First Morse.  Now WNFF is trying to take away Desmond.  I hate all of you=)

[tomterp]

First Morse.  Now WNFF is trying to take away Desmond.  I hate all of you=)

I think because the Nats failed to reach terms for an extension last offseason fans are beginning the separation process.

[Ray D]

First Morse.  Now WNFF is trying to take away Desmond.  I hate all of you=)

Don't worry he'll be back next year.  Desmond simply isn't worth nearly what he thinks he's worth. What'll happen is that they won' t reach agreement, he'll go free agent, but he won't get the offers he think he will, and finally he will sign and play here.

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

Good thing we have that prenup

I think because the Nats failed to reach terms for an extension last offseason fans are beginning the separation process.

[NJ Ave]

  Desmond simply isn't worth nearly what he thinks he's worth.

I don't know, it seems like a lot of baseball players are worth EXACTLY what they think they're worth, but their teams don't want to admit it. There's always guys like Lester, Mussina, Cano, etc. etc. etc. whose teams offer "fair" contracts to only to see another team "overpay" the player to pretty much what the player wanted in the first place. I trust Rizzo to make the right decisions on player personnel decisions, so it doesn't overly worry me, but I'm not willing to bet that Desmond won't get $110 million from someone, or Zimmermann won't get $140 million. I think it's pretty likely they will.

[HalfSmokes]

Don't worry he'll be back next year.  Desmond simply isn't worth nearly what he thinks he's worth. What'll happen is that they won' t reach agreement, he'll go free agent, but he won't get the offers he think he will, and finally he will sign and play here.

I'm trying to remember a big name free agent who returned to their team after disappointing offers- sure, there are the guys at the edge trying to get a multi year deal or an extra few hundred thousand who do it all the time, but I don't think Desmond falls into that group. All it takes is one team to think he's worth more than Rizzo does 

[welch]

Remember your thought last night as Desmond fielded the last almost-base-hit: a smasher, if it goes through, the game is tied. He knocks it down (or it almost knocks him down). He recovers somehow, throws to first. Who thought for an instant that it was a 4 - 3 game? But, no, out by a step. Storen recorded the pitching save, but Desmond saved the win.

[UMDNats]

Don't worry he'll be back next year.  Desmond simply isn't worth nearly what he thinks he's worth. What'll happen is that they won' t reach agreement, he'll go free agent, but he won't get the offers he think he will, and finally he will sign and play here.

Yeah, this is not going to happen.

[imref]

Desmond is helped by the fact that there are so few good shortstops in the league, and no other consistently delivers 20/20 seasons.  Assume we extend him past 2016, he'll be 30 at the end of next season.

So say we give him a five year deal, I think it's realistic to assume that he puts up an average of 3WAR a year (past 3 years have been 4.9/5.0/3.1 (so far this year)

Using Fangraphs $/WAR, you get something like $5-6 million per win.   So that sets Desmond up for say $15-16 million a year x 5 = $75-80 million extension.  Maybe you bump that up to $85 million simply because of his position.

Reports are that he turned down $70-80 million over 6 years, which I assume would have replaced his arbitration years in 2013/14.

I'd think after another solid year, he could get 5/$85 on the open market.  And I don't think paying that is much of a risk.

[sph274]

Desmond is helped by the fact that there are so few good shortstops in the league, and no other consistently delivers 20/20 seasons.  Assume we extend him past 2016, he'll be 30 at the end of next season.

So say we give him a five year deal, I think it's realistic to assume that he puts up an average of 3WAR a year (past 3 years have been 4.9/5.0/3.1 (so far this year)

Using Fangraphs $/WAR, you get something like $5-6 million per win.   So that sets Desmond up for say $15-16 million a year x 5 = $75-80 million extension.  Maybe you bump that up to $85 million simply because of his position.

Reports are that he turned down $70-80 million over 6 years, which I assume would have replaced his arbitration years in 2013/14.

I'd think after another solid year, he could get 5/$85 on the open market.  And I don't think paying that is much of a risk.

I agree, but I would put 5/85 as a max offer from us. no higher. he isnt getting any 100 mil contract

[blue911]

I'm trying to remember a big name free agent who returned to their team after disappointing offers- sure, there are the guys at the edge trying to get a multi year deal or an extra few hundred thousand who do it all the time, but I don't think Desmond falls into that group. All it takes is one team to think he's worth more than Rizzo does

Alex Rodriguez

[imref]

Alex Rodriguez

Adam LaRoche.

[HalfSmokes]

Adam LaRoche.

pretty sure he doesn't qualify as a big name free agent- LaRoche is exactly they kind of guy who comes back a serviceable starter who fills out a roster (i.e. a two years $24 million guy)

[Ray D]

pretty sure he doesn't qualify as a big name free agent-

And Desmond is?

[Jordanz Meatballz]

And Desmond is?

I think that he will be, and that we're myopic about our own players. I'd like to see what GMs or non-fans of the Nationals think.

[HalfSmokes]

And Desmond is?

the team offered him $80 million- apparently Rizzo thinks he is

[imref]

And Desmond is?

Desmond would be a huge name free agent.  Are we forgetting that he's one of the top offensive shortstops in baseball, and far more durable than Tulo?

[welch]

There are not many shortstops who field and hit as well as Desmond. Yes, he sometimes misses the routine play, but he also makes the beyond-tough plays. Like last night...a game-winner. Desmond also hits.

Desmond is worth a lot on the open market...and probably more to the Nats because the team is building a tradition. Desmond and Zimmerman are whatever tradition the Nats have; Werth and LaRoche next.

Desmond matters more to Nats fans than Troy Tulowitzki...if, by magic, the Nats lost Desmond but got Tulowitzki. For a comparison: Yankee fans never like Jason Giambi or Alex Rodriguez. Both were outsiders.

[Gil1957]

I cannot see Desmond getting a better deal than the Nats offered.  7 years, $107 million.   For a .260 hitter with a little pop, that isn't bad money.    I hope the Nats pull the deal off the table when no one comes close to those numbers for a 31 year old shortstop in 2016.

[sph274]

i think turning down that deal is gonna look really stupid for ian next offseason. teams will be throwing money around for the elite SP, i doubt anyone is trying to sign him for anything longer than a 5 year deal. ian desmond at age 36 will suck