Time to trade Dunn to the Yankees

[NJ Ave]

Thanks Joe Morgan!

Good luck with the new blog - I heard the world was going to dispense with objective analysis and return to conjecture and mysticism. Dayton Moore and I look forward to your post applauding the Betancourt trade, and your four part expose on "awesome plays I saw Jeter make that the rest of you probably missed cause you were in your parent's basement".

[Evolution33]

Yes.  That's exactly what I'm talking about.

I take it you largely look at statistics and hardly ever watch actual game footage?  The game is played on a field and not on a computer screen.  Numbers tell A story and not THE story.  I haven't heard any complaints about Abreu's fielding from the Angels and I've heard the Rockies are content with Hawpe in the field.  Chicago would like Dye to hit a bit better but seem pleased with his fielding and Milledge was grossly out of position. 

I don't consider Utley to be the greatest fielding 2B or Randy Winn, Alex Rios or Carlos Gomez to be the greatest fielding OF trio of all time.  But the statistics tell me it's so, so it must be true.

I will address this to you since I found with arguing with a certain sect of people gets you nowhere. People that follow the religion of stats and those that follow the religion of old school (for great lack of a better term) end up in the same place. They argue and bicker about things that have little to no bearing on the actual game. There is a time and place for every philosophy in the sport of baseball and sticking a bad fielder in left field is probably not some crazy thing. Left field and first base can often be refered to as NLDH. It is just a fact that NL teams have to sacrifice fielding to get better hitting. The stats say that in VORP Willie Harris and Adam Dunn are just as valuable. I really honestly cannot buy that. I cannot look at a guy that hits 40 homers and drives in 100 runs and say that he is just as valuable as a guy that actually has a lower batting average with far less power and doesn't walk as much, but who dives all over the place. No metric, stat, or observation will anyone that Adam Dunn is a good outfielder. I also have trouble believing that Adam Dunn has single handedly allowed 20 extra runs to score this season.

Like you say numbers are only part of the story. To truly understand the sport of baseball it is important to understand all aspects of the sport. Stats tell you that it is a bad idea to bunt with anyone that isn't the pitcher, but what if your number 4 hitter hits a lead-off double in the bottom of the 12th. I think bunting him to third is the greatest idea in the world. Stat worshipers will also say giving up an out is the worst thing you can do. I would trade an out for a run in most situations (watching the nats leave the bases loaded time and time again has made my belief in this even stronger).

Stats and boxscores are the cliffnotes version of the game. No matter how many stats come out and how many things they can describe there is no way that it can do anything but sumerize. There are just certain parts of the game that can only be understood by watching the game. Stats are very useful in telling people what has happenned, but when people try and use them to say what will happen is where they fail. Stats can be used to predict a players career path, but no one should get predictions mixed up with certainty.

[tomterp]

To be fair, while Adam Dunn has had a great offensive year, he's literally been the worst fielder in the majors according to UZR. While he has 25 runs of batting value thus far, he has -22.2 runs of fielding value, so he's giving back almost everything in the field he's giving us at the plate.

Just an observation, BP has Dunn 17th among all players offensively at 34.6 runs over replacement player (VORP).

[spidernat]

^ You never posted the entire list. 

[blue911]

I wish somebody would explain how defensive ratings are gathered. It seems to me that somebody watches the game as says "He should have caught that" or "Damn,that's a hell of a catch". If that's the case than all the UZR (or whatever) ratings are at best what the old school guys have been doing for years.

[shoeshineboy]

There are those who feel that if he sticks around and moves to 1B he can prove to be an effective 1B for the team (I happen to think he's a disaster at 1B, but to each his or her own).  I also think there are those in the Front Office who think he can be a serviceable 1B.  So then I respond to: why not open your mind and find ways to use a player who can play both corner OF and 1B and keep him in your lineup long-term?  Why the aversion? 

With the addition of Morgan and their insistence on keeping him, I feel that there is more than enough room to keep Dunn around for his bat and live with the defensive shortfall in LF. 

But you're right.  If this group of morons running the baseball operations of the Nats can't possibly see the value of Dunn on the roster beyond next year anyway; then yes, I'd say trade him while the getting's good.

That said, I like that they're asking for the moon and the stars and they aren't willing to bend on that (at least, so far).  I don't want to trade him for four fringe prospect relief pitchers and a marginal SS prospect or something.  I'd rather take the picks next year.

We're in agreement. I have always felt that if you had a legit defensive CF and RF, you can stash a lug in LF. This is what most teams do. You don't expect that the guy will do anything but make the routine play, and you recognize that just because the guy doesn't get to a screaming line drive that goes to the wall, you chalk it up as being off the pitcher not the result of horrid defense. Sure, you'd love to combine the offense with gold-glove defense, but that's a whole different calibre of player. That's why Tex signed for close to $200M. Until we locate that, I think you take your chances with a guy like Dunn unless you end up finding two or three other power bats in the lineup. We just lack true offensive fire power. So if you deduct it, you have to add it somewhere. Thus the notion that you have to get something legit in return that will play everyday somewhere very soon.

In terms of 1B, NJ is great at fielding liners and hard grounders. That saves a lot. But Dunn seems to be great at picking balls and being a big target. So when it comes to other infielders being mentally impacted by the presence of Dunn, I think he breeds a degree of confidence. Certainly Zimmerman would rather throw to Dunn than throw to Ronnie Belliard. And with Nick's issues picking, I am not sure that he isn't somewhat of an issue there for some. Nick is clearly a better overall option at 1B defensively, but I don't see Dunn any worse than DY. Young at ST in 2007 was even worse than what David Ortiz showed when he was playing at the Nationals park during the recent interleague series. And Ortiz at 1B is an unbelievable disasters. But after working hard, Young became more than serviceable. What I appreciate about Dunn is that he is willing to play anywhere they put him. It is not the easiest thing to move from LF to RF to 1B when you are limited defensively, and Dunn never complained. I think he would put in the work wherever. Having the options alone, is indeed worth something.

[The Chief]

To be fair, while Adam Dunn has had a great offensive year, he's literally been the worst fielder in the majors according to UZR. While he has 25 runs of batting value thus far, he has -22.2 runs of fielding value, so he's giving back almost everything in the field he's giving us at the plate.

Sorry but frankly that stuff is an exaggerated load of crap.

*snip*

*snip*

Evolution33 and shoeshineboy, you guys deserve medals.

[tomterp]

^ You never posted the entire list.  

 

Okay, see it below.  I've exerpted the top 30, plus Nats, ranked in descending VORP order.  I've deleted all pitchers from the rankings.  There were 561 total position players, so you can see how each rank vs the overall pool.

The Adjusted* column to the far right, is the current VORP adjusted as if continued for 700 plate appearances, allowing players to be compared for the rate of success as opposed to actual VORP, which is only accumulated through actual play.  Just another way of looking at the stat.

EDIT:  Click on the table below to expand to normal size

[HalfSmokes]

I wish somebody would explain how defensive ratings are gathered. It seems to me that somebody watches the game as says "He should have caught that" or "darn,that's a hell of a catch". If that's the case than all the UZR (or whatever) ratings are at best what the old school guys have been doing for years.

UZR (ultimate zone rating): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined.

RngR (range runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity.

ARM (outfield arm runs): Outfielder’s get credit (plus or minus) depending on what the runners do on a hit or a fly ball out. A runner can stay put, advance, or get thrown out. A fielder will get credit not only if he throws out more than his share of runners, but also if he keeps more than his share of runners from advancing extra bases.

DPR (double play runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, based on the number double plays versus the number forces at second they get, as compared to an average fielder at that position, given the speed and location of the ball and the handedness of the batter.

ErrR (error runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by the number of errors he makes as compared to an average fielder at that position given the same distribution of balls in play.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Playing on the factors mentioned in HalfSmoke's post, would most of us agree / not be surprised with the following assessment of Dunn's defense (I'm doing this without looking at the fangrapsh table):

Range - below average.  He is slow. Balls hit to his left or right at the fringe of an average outfielders range will drop in because he just does not get there.  I don't see any evidence that he gets great jumps to make up for his speed.  The biggest plus is his height sometimes allows him to reach and make a catch when he does misjudge a ball.

Arm - below average to average.  I don't see him as capable of charging to a ball in front of him, picking it up, and making a strong throw. I'll defer to others, but I don't recall strong and accurate throws home or red lights being thrown up by coaches when Dunn fields a ball.

DPR does not matter for OFs.

Errors - that we could probably look up.

I don't think there can be much of a question that a guy who hits as well as Dunn has his value limited by his defense. How much is subject to argument.  I would not put too much faith in one half season of one defensive metric when there is also a consensus that 1 season defensive numbers fluctuate.  Everything I've seen says UZR and other systems really need about 3 seasons of data to be meaningful, and that a sampling across systems is better than even the best system.  Nevertheless, it is also interesting to note that his contract seems to value him at 2 - 3 WAR, and when you balance the past 3.5 years of performance, it looks like he is about a 2 -3 WAR player.

[HalfSmokes]

My only question is who determines zones and when balls enter those zones? I really couldn't find the answer anywhere, I can't think of a way to answer the question and not make the stats somewhat subjective.

The other question is how is a ball in a zone fielded by another player counted. For example, a left fielder is waddling towards a fly ball in their zone, but probably won't make it. That ball is shagged by the CF. If the CF didn't get to it it would have negatively effected the LFs rating, but because he did there is no effect.

[blue911]

Still no answer on how the data is gathered.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Still no answer on how the data is gathered.

My understanding is that there is an "eyeball" element.  Baseball Information Systems reviews tapes of every game.  The judgment is made off of tapes, I believe.  What takes it out of the arbitrary end is that it is a common set of reviewers applying a common set of standards.  The field is divided into sectors and, over time and multiple comparisons across games, they measure the likelihood that a ball hit a certain way (line, fly, "Fliner," etc...) to a certain spot will end up being an out.  There are judgment issues (is that a fly or a fliner), and there are issues I think with positioning of the fielders, but they system relies on big numbers to smooth out differences in judgment.   That may have something to do with the need to have 3 or so years of data to make a meaningful assessment of a player's defensive ability.

There are also unusual field considerations.  I'll see if I can find a better explanation.

[spidernat]

Still no answer on how the data is gathered.

They throw darts blindfolded.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Here is an explanation of the defensive metrics used on Hardball Times, RZR.  This also uses BIS data.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/fielding-stats-at-the-hardball-times/

Halfsmokes - the RZR system has 2 sets of numbers - the in zone RZR, and the "Out of Zone" (OOZ) number that reflects balls a player gets to that ordinary fielders do not. 

[blue911]

My understanding is that there is an "eyeball" element.  Baseball Information Systems reviews tapes of every game.  The judgment is made off of tapes, I believe.  What takes it out of the arbitrary end is that it is a common set of reviewers applying a common set of standards.  The field is divided into sectors and, over time and multiple comparisons across games, they measure the likelihood that a ball hit a certain way (line, fly, "Fliner," etc...) to a certain spot will end up being an out.  There are judgment issues (is that a fly or a fliner), and there are issues I think with positioning of the fielders, but they system relies on big numbers to smooth out differences in judgment.   That may have something to do with the need to have 3 or so years of data to make a meaningful assessment of a player's defensive ability.

There are also unusual field considerations.  I'll see if I can find a better explanation.

Do they take into consideration Arm Strength,Throwing Accuracy,or basic game awareness (Fundamentals)? I absolutely hate the mythical "Replacement Player". Why not compare against the league average for the players position? For somebody to state that Adam Dunn has cost X number of runs above a replacement player is meaningless as far as I'm concerned. How much better or worse than the average NL starting leftfielder is a better way of judging Adam Dunn and his defense. I will state that Adam Dunn's defense may be bad, but when stacked up against such defensive stalwarts as Danny Murphy,Garry Sheffield,Raul Ibanez,Carlos Lee,Manny Ramirez,Alfonso Soriano,Ryan Braun, or Chris Duncan , I don't think he is 28 runs worse.

[HalfSmokes]

that would come in based on the runs above the average fielder for that position. UZR and the related stats use average not replacement player. If you have a weak arm or poor accuracy, presumably runners will advance more on you hurting your ARM rating.

[blue911]

that would come in based on the runs above the average fielder for that position. UZR and the related stats use average not replacement player. If you have a weak arm or poor accuracy, presumably runners will advance more on you hurting your ARM rating.

I just looked up the UZR for every NL team's starting leftfielder. Only 5 teams have positive ratings (Brewers,Pirates,Reds,Rockies & Giants). The Dodgers have one good fielder and one horrible fielder, but the horrible fielder will start the remainder of the season. But the Cards will balance that with Matt Holliday. To be fair lets say that 6 teams have positive fielders. So the breakdown is 6 good versus 10 bad, What is average?

[HalfSmokes]

I just looked up the UZR for every NL team's starting leftfielder. Only 5 teams have positive ratings (Brewers,Pirates,Reds,Rockies & Giants). The Dodgers have one good fielder and one horrible fielder, but the horrible fielder will start the remainder of the season. But the Cards will balance that with Matt Holliday. To be fair lets say that 6 teams have positive fielders. So the breakdown is 6 good versus 10 bad, What is average?

Throw in the AL and it looks balanced to me, 1 more below 0, but only -.6

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2009&month=0

interesting to see that we have the worst outfielder (Dunn) and the best (Morgan)

I don't think you can use these rating as exact measures, but more like blunt tools. For example, you could say David Wright has a gold glove. Looking at the fielding ratings would contradict that http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2009&month=0

[Minty Fresh]

I will address this to you since I found with arguing with a certain sect of people gets you nowhere. People that follow the religion of stats and those that follow the religion of old school (for great lack of a better term) end up in the same place. They argue and bicker about things that have little to no bearing on the actual game. There is a time and place for every philosophy in the sport of baseball and sticking a bad fielder in left field is probably not some crazy thing. Left field and first base can often be refered to as NLDH. It is just a fact that NL teams have to sacrifice fielding to get better hitting. The stats say that in VORP Willie Harris and Adam Dunn are just as valuable. I really honestly cannot buy that. I cannot look at a guy that hits 40 homers and drives in 100 runs and say that he is just as valuable as a guy that actually has a lower batting average with far less power and doesn't walk as much, but who dives all over the place. No metric, stat, or observation will anyone that Adam Dunn is a good outfielder. I also have trouble believing that Adam Dunn has single handedly allowed 20 extra runs to score this season.

Like you say numbers are only part of the story. To truly understand the sport of baseball it is important to understand all aspects of the sport. Stats tell you that it is a bad idea to bunt with anyone that isn't the pitcher, but what if your number 4 hitter hits a lead-off double in the bottom of the 12th. I think bunting him to third is the greatest idea in the world. Stat worshipers will also say giving up an out is the worst thing you can do. I would trade an out for a run in most situations (watching the nats leave the bases loaded time and time again has made my belief in this even stronger).

Stats and boxscores are the cliffnotes version of the game. No matter how many stats come out and how many things they can describe there is no way that it can do anything but sumerize. There are just certain parts of the game that can only be understood by watching the game. Stats are very useful in telling people what has happenned, but when people try and use them to say what will happen is where they fail. Stats can be used to predict a players career path, but no one should get predictions mixed up with certainty.

Thanks evo.  Essentially that's what I've been trying to say, but it came out the wrong way ( as usual ).

[blue911]

Throw in the AL and it looks balanced to me, 1 more below 0, but only -.6

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2009&month=0

interesting to see that we have the worst outfielder (Dunn) and the best (Morgan)

I don't think you can use these rating as exact measures, but more like blunt tools. For example, you could say David Wright has a gold glove. Looking at the fielding ratings would contradict that http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2009&month=0

The AL has a DH to hide poor defenders, the NL has leftfield. If the stats are only "blunt tools" then why cite them as evidence of anything?

[HalfSmokes]

The AL has a DH to hide poor defenders, the NL has leftfield. If the stats are only "blunt tools" then why cite them as evidence of anything?

because most people's eyes are even blunter - hence the wright gold glove. I have no problem saying a guy with a 20 is a better defender than a guy with a 10 rating. By blunt tool I meant you can't say a guy with a 1 rating is adequate and a guy with a -1 rating is not.

[Minty Fresh]

Thanks Joe Morgan!

Good luck with the new blog - I heard the world was going to dispense with objective analysis and return to conjecture and mysticism. Dayton Moore and I look forward to your post applauding the Betancourt trade, and your four part expose on "awesome plays I saw Jeter make that the rest of you probably missed cause you were in your parent's basement".

I'm glad we were able to have such a rational discussion.  The personal insults hurled have made me see the error of my ways.  Clearly, your collection of stats is a much better measure of baseball than anything that ever happens on the field.  I look forward to the day when we can just create mythical players on a computer screen and let the numbers tell us what happens (but wait, you can do that with Baseball Mogul or Out Of The Park). 

Why bother playing or watching baseball at all when all you have to do is punch numbers into a computer?

NJ Ave is on the new cutting edge of baseball and we all should get in line while the getting's good.

[HalfSmokes]

Clearly, your collection of stats is a much better measure of baseball than anything that ever happens on the field

where do you think stats come from?

[Minty Fresh]

where do you think stats come from?

It doesn't matter.  The numbers are all that matters.  UZR is the best method of determining a player's value and not actual play on the field.

Relax.  I can see clearly now.