Harper #3 Overall Prospect

[mimontero88]

They've been doormats for 20 years.  No thanks.

During which time the Nats/Expos have been dominant?  And I'm not sure what point you're trying to make.  The last 20 years have essentially nothing to do with their prospects for success moving forward.

[HalfSmokes]

The futility has gotten them some good draft picks. Before I get to high on Royals prospects, I remind myself of Alex Gordon (you know the best pure hitter in a generation...)

[Tyler Durden]

The Expos aren't a real good example of a team with a solid strategy to build for the present and the future.  I said nothing about them - I only mentioned the Royals.  But even the Expos have ahd some good teams over the past 20 years.

My point is that it's a terrible idea to do what KC did.  It would kill baseball in DC for a third time if the Nats were as bad as the Royals have been for the past 20 years.  There are several other ways to build a franchise.  There is no need to be terrible for that long and collect high draft picks and trade good young players (Damon and Beltran in recent years) for prospects.

And I will add that the Royals in 2011 may be the worst Royals team we've seen yet. 

I'm not saying prospects are bad - they're great to have.  But KC has overdone it in my book.  By a lot.

[Potomac Cannons]

But they are also deep enough in the farm system at all levels to make trades as guys develop to add missing pieces where guys didn't pan out.  Honestly, they are in a pretty enviable position for a rebuilding team.

Have you seen Dayton Moore trade?  David DeJesus turns into Vin Mazzaro as the latest example.  He's got the most amazing difference between drafting ability and trading ability I've seen.  I fully expect him to trade away every one of his best prospects for below average MLB talent.

[mimontero88]

The Expos aren't a real good example of a team with a solid strategy to build for the present and the future.  I said nothing about them - I only mentioned the Royals.  But even the Expos have ahd some good teams over the past 20 years.

My point is that it's a terrible idea to do what KC did.  It would kill baseball in DC for a third time if the Nats were as bad as the Royals have been for the past 20 years.  There are several other ways to build a franchise.  There is no need to be terrible for that long and collect high draft picks and trade good young players (Damon and Beltran in recent years) for prospects.

And I will add that the Royals in 2011 may be the worst Royals team we've seen yet. 

I'm not saying prospects are bad - they're great to have.  But KC has overdone it in my book.  By a lot.

It's not like the Royals intentionally undertook some 20-year rebuilding process.  When you don't spend like the Yankees sometimes a lot comes down to luck and the Royals have had a lot of guys who just didn't pan out and have constantly had to break down the foundation and rebuild.  As a result they have accumulated a lot of prospects over time and to say that a team that is in the early stages of a rebuild wouldn't want to be in their position seems ludicrous.  I'm not saying I would like us to take the path the Royals took over the last 20 years.  I'm saying that they have a great foundation in place to build from that a lot of rebuilding teams would be very envious of.

[mimontero88]

Have you seen Dayton Moore trade?  David DeJesus turns into Vin Mazzaro as the latest example.  He's got the most amazing difference between drafting ability and trading ability I've seen.  I fully expect him to trade away every one of his best prospects for below average MLB talent.

Sure, but that's not the point.  The point is that they have a great foundation in place.  If their GM squanders it that's on him but it doesn't change the strength of the foundation they have now or their potential to build off that foundation.

[Potomac Cannons]

Sure, but that's not the point.  The point is that they have a great foundation in place.  If their GM squanders it that's on him but it doesn't change the strength of the foundation they have now or their potential to build off that foundation.

If a GM has already shown no concept of trade value then I'd be like a vulture going after that foundation.  It wouldn't surprise me if he went for a Garrett Mock for Alex Gordon trade.

[HalfSmokes]

This year will be a huge test for the 'rays' method that everyone seems to love so much. Small market caught up to them and they lost a lot. Everyone says Jennings can replace Crawford, but 6.9 WAR is a lot to ask out of a rookie. If they fall this year will all this talk about small market teams building foundations for the future go away since that foundation just gets dismantled after a few years?

[blue911]

Who says Jennings can replace Crawford? If the Rays thought that then there was no reason to sign both Manny & Johnny.

[Potomac Cannons]

Who says Jennings can replace Crawford? If the Rays thought that then there was no reason to sign both Manny & Johnny.

Long term he may be a reasonable replacement.  Damon gives a veteran to platoon/teach him and Manny is the Pena replacement.

[blue911]

Long term he may be a reasonable replacement.  Damon gives a veteran to platoon/teach him and Manny is the Pena replacement.

I don't think anybody is kidding themselves about Jennings. He's 24, well past the age when most elite players make it to the bigs.

[Potomac Cannons]

I don't think anybody is kidding themselves about Jennings. He's 24, well past the age when most elite players make it to the bigs.

If he gives plus defense and a .750-.800 OPS I'm sure they'll be happy with it.

[blue911]

If he gives plus defense and a .750-.800 OPS I'm sure they'll be happy with it.

and they should be. He isn't Carl Crawford nor should people expect the same type of results. Tampa will be judged on whether they can remain a viable playoff contender in the AL East for the next decade not on which players they sign or keep.

[GMUTrkstar]

This year will be a huge test for the 'rays' method that everyone seems to love so much. Small market caught up to them and they lost a lot. Everyone says Jennings can replace Crawford, but 6.9 WAR is a lot to ask out of a rookie. If they fall this year will all this talk about small market teams building foundations for the future go away since that foundation just gets dismantled after a few years?

As long as the Rays spend on this upcoming draft where they have a ton of compensation picks they will be just fine...

[Potomac Cannons]

As long as the Rays spend on this upcoming draft where they have a ton of compensation picks they will be just fine...

6 of the top 50 picks.  That's just insane.  First pick is #24.  If they get one good or better player, 1-2 everyday players, and 1 bench/reliever in that mix they'll have done well.

[HalfSmokes]

6 of the top 50 picks.  That's just insane.  First pick is #24.  If they get one good or better player, 1-2 everyday players, and 1 bench/reliever in that mix they'll have done well.

Now that most teams spend, they'll have to hit on a couple of gambles to get one good and 1-2 everyday players, especially if they want guys ready soon while they are still at the top

[HalfSmokes]

and they should be. He isn't Carl Crawford nor should people expect the same type of results. Tampa will be judged on whether they can remain a viable playoff contender in the AL East for the next decade not on which players they sign or keep.

True, but they lost more than they brought in and other teams in their division improved. I just question how long they can contend if they are constrained with payroll.

[blue911]

True, but they lost more than they brought in and other teams in their division improved. I just question how long they can contend if they are constrained with payroll.

Billy Beane says you can contend without a large payroll, that is the essence of Moneyball.

[HalfSmokes]

Billy Beane says you can contend without a large payroll, that is the essence of Moneyball.

Billy Beane is in the AL West with 1 large market team and the Mariners and Rangers. Tampa is in a division with the two largest payrolls in baseball

[blue911]

Billy Beane is in the AL West with 1 large market team and the Mariners and Rangers. Tampa is in a division with the two largest payrolls in baseball

That has nothing to do with Moneyball.

[HalfSmokes]

That has nothing to do with Moneyball.

Exploiting inefficiencies (money ball) will only get you so far when you're competing with teams that can steam roll you with payroll and that are trying to exploit those same inefficiencies with more resources

[blue911]

Exploiting inefficiencies (money ball) will only get you so far when you're competing with teams that can steam roll you with payroll and that are trying to exploit those same inefficiencies with more resources

Why not just say Billy Beane is full of crap? Tampa will probably field a better team than the Yankees. The Yankees are old,slow and lack starting pitchers. All things that doom teams.

[Potomac Cannons]

Why not just say Billy Beane is full of crap? Tampa will probably field a better team than the Yankees. The Yankees are old,slow and lack starting pitchers. All things that doom teams.

And I love hearing Cashman take jabs at the stupidity of their ownership for not knowing when/how to adjust things to younger players.

[HalfSmokes]

Why not just say Billy Beane is full of crap? Tampa will probably field a better team than the Yankees. The Yankees are old,slow and lack starting pitchers. All things that doom teams.

I don't think he's full of crap, I think that when he started looking at SABR stats, most teams weren't in the same way he was. Other teams have caught up, but when the A's move to their new ball park, I think he'll be a hell of a successful GM if he's given a large budget. The Yankees may be old and slow and short on starters, but I'd still pencil them in to finish second in the AL east, they have excessive offense and good bullpen and at least one ace. I think they'l pick up more starters before the season is over as other teams look to unload salary

[Tyler Durden]

John Sickels had the following as his top 10 hitting prospects before the 2006 season began:

1) Delmon Young, OF,  Tampa Bay Rays
2) Jeremy Hermida, OF, Florida Marlins
3) Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals
4) Brandon Wood, SS, Los Angeles Angels
5) Andy Marte, 3B, Boston Red Sox
6) Carlos Quentin, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
7) Alex Gordon, 3B, Kansas City Royals
Stephen Drew, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
9) Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
10) Howie Kendrick, 2B, Los Angeles Angels

You can see the full top 50 with writeups here: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/1/26/1953803/top-50-hitting-prospects-from-2006-in-review

So, there are some hits and some misses, even with the best of the best prospects.  Of those 10, only 2 lived up to expectations - and it definitely wasn't the top 2.

I'm not posting this because I'm down on prospects - I'm not and I'd rather have more and higher quality prospects.

But teams that suck for years and years, ahem the Royals ahem, in an effort to collect prospects (by trading legit ML talent and by sucking enough to get high draft picks) are not doing themselves any favors.

It's great that the Royals have lots of prospects.  I'd like the Nats to have that many.  But the Royals were just abysmal for 2 decades.  They just traded their version of Strasburg for what looks to me like peanuts.  And all those prospects don't guarantee them squat.