Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP

[NJ Ave]

not saying it isn't impressive, but it's probably easier to have that outlook when you know you're fast tracked for the majors (with a nice signing bonus already in the bank) than a later round pick hoping to get promoted based on performance

I doubt most players that aren't huge talents are given that kind of direction. I'm sure Pivetta or whoever works on a changeup in side sessions and they call it during games - I doubt the team would ever take even a decent prospect like Pivetta and say, don't throw your two best pitches tonight.

I only bring it up because Keith Law (I think) was talking about this recently - that there's a huge difference between an organization WANTING a prospect to work on his lesser pitchers and GETTING him to buy in. The implication was that pitchers tended to just go into games and try to get guys out with their best pitches.

[HalfSmokes]

I never would have guessed it, during spring training, you always hear about pitchers only throwing certain types of pitches during starts, I figured minor leaguers who were secure in their roles (i.e. guys who know they're getting promoted at some point) would treat minor league starts like ST

[NJ Ave]

I figured minor leaguers who were secure in their roles (i.e. guys who know they're getting promoted at some point)

I wonder how many people this really is, and even if they're pretty sure they're going to be promoted from Potomac to Harrisburg, I wonder how many guys really think they're ever going to reach the majors.

Ask Dylan Bundy how it feels to ditch a pitch because you're certain you'll reach the majors.

[HalfSmokes]

I wonder how many people this really is, and even if they're pretty sure they're going to be promoted from Potomac to Harrisburg, I wonder how many guys really think they're ever going to reach the majors.

Ask Dylan Bundy how it feels to ditch a pitch because you're certain you'll reach the majors.

think, probably a lot, know, probably less than a guy per organization. Giolito is in a pretty unique position. If he has a pitch he needs to work on, he could go out, throw only that pitch, get shelled, and not have his career effected at all.

[Slateman]

What pitch did Bundy ditch?

[NJ Ave]

What pitch did Bundy ditch?

His cutter, which was his best pitch. The Orioles thought throwing it might give him arm problems. Whoops.

Turns out PITCHING gives you arm problems.

[Slateman]

His cutter, which was his best pitch. The Orioles thought throwing it might give him arm problems. Whoops.

Turns out PITCHING gives you arm problems.

Oh, the Orioles don't let anyone throw cutters. See Jake Arrietta

[NJ Ave]

Oh, the Orioles don't let anyone throw cutters. See Jake Arrietta

Orioles are idiots with pitching prospects. Who cares if throwing cutters decreases FB MPH years down the road? Was it in Moneyball where they said baseball is a war of attrition, and what's getting attrited are pitchers' arms?

I say use 'em while they still have elbows and shoulders.

[Mr Clean]

Promoted to H-burg along with Simms and Purke.

[Natsinpwc]

Promoted to H-burg along with Simms and Purke.

Wonder who will come up from Hagerstwon to Potomac?

[Mr Clean]

Wonder who will come up from Hagerstwon to Potomac?

Jake Walsh and RC Orlan, both relievers.

[AR]

Looks like GIO has been hit hard in his first two starts in HAR. Anybody saw him pitched and can add some color?

[Matugi]

Looks like GIO has been hit hard in his first two starts in HAR. Anybody saw him pitched and can add some color?

I didn't see him but the first game looks like it was a bunch of singles and walks which mirrors his first starts at Potomac.  The second one just looks like a bad outing, which will happen.  I wouldn't worry too much, he struggled in his first two starts at Potomac as well.

[Natsinpwc]

I didn't see him but the first game looks like it was a bunch of singles and walks which mirrors his first starts at Potomac.  The second one just looks like a bad outing, which will happen.  I wouldn't worry too much, he struggled in his first two starts at Potomac as well.

Most guys take some time to adjust at each level; it's actually a pretty big leap between A ball and AA.

[Matugi]

Most guys take some time to adjust at each level; it's actually a pretty big leap between A ball and AA.

Yeah I figure his AA to AAA jump will be smoother.  AA is the greatest concentration of prospect talent, if you can hit/pitch at AA you're basically a future ML prospect.

[Natsinpwc]

Yeah I figure his AA to AAA jump will be smoother.  AA is the greatest concentration of prospect talent, if you can hit/pitch at AA you're basically a future ML prospect.

He may not spend much time in Triple A.  Probably start double A next year and a move to Triple A for short visit and then finish with the Nats.  I assume he will still be on something of an innings limit next year?

[Matugi]

He may not spend much time in Triple A.  Probably start double A next year and a move to Triple A for short visit and then finish with the Nats.  I assume he will still be on something of an innings limit next year?

I think it depends.  If the Nats are competitive again next year and in no need of an extra starting pitcher I think he pitches ~130 innings at AA and ~40 innings at AAA before being shut down.  Then in 2017 I think he gets 4 or 5 starts at AAA before being called up in May.  But if the Nats struggle next year he'll almost assuredly be called up in August or September.

[HalfSmokes]

Yeah I figure his AA to AAA jump will be smoother.  AA is the greatest concentration of prospect talent, if you can hit/pitch at AA you're basically a future ML prospect.

but AAA has a lot of guys who can hit in the majors (just not well enough to stick, just look at Moore's numbers in Syracuse) as roster filler, AA filler is lower quality even though the roster might have more legitimate prospects

[Matugi]

but AAA has a lot of guys who can hit in the majors (just not well enough to stick) and AAAA players as roster filler, AA filler is lower quality even though the roster might have more legitimate prospects

I think that may be more true in terms of having to execute all pitches but I think there is a clear talent disparity such that missed pitches will hurt you more at AA than they will at AAA.

[Natsinpwc]

I think it depends.  If the Nats are competitive again next year and in no need of an extra starting pitcher I think he pitches ~130 innings at AA and ~40 innings at AAA before being shut down.  Then in 2017 I think he gets 4 or 5 starts at AAA before being called up in May.  But if the Nats struggle next year he'll almost assuredly be called up in August or September.

Depends on who replaces Fister and JZ of course--assume Ross will be one and they will sign someone else.  Injuries always happen and he can get sport starts.

[Matugi]

Depends on who replaces Fister and JZ of course--assume Ross will be one and they will sign someone else.  Injuries always happen and he can get sport starts.

I think the general consensus is the Nats will be signing some sort of FA filler.  Basically need someone to bridge the gap between the Zimmermann/Strasburg era and the Ross/Giolito era.  That FA could also fill in as a fifth starter should the team not pick up Gio's option.

[HalfSmokes]

I think the general consensus is the Nats will be signing some sort of FA filler.  Basically need someone to bridge the gap between the Zimmermann/Strasburg era and the Ross/Giolito era.  That FA could also fill in as a fifth starter should the team not pick up Gio's option.

would they really waste a year of Harper (not to mention Strasburg and Rendon)?

[Matugi]

would they really waste a year of Harper (not to mention Strasburg and Rendon)?

Signing an FA and being competitive are not mutually exclusive.

[HalfSmokes]

Signing an FA and being competitive are not mutually exclusive.

signing free agent filler doesn't help. A rotation of Scherzer, Strasburg, Gio, Ross, and filler may not be able to carry the craptastic offense (which won't get better with a older Wert, an older Zimmerman, and taylor's .250/200ks replacing span full time)

[Matugi]

signing free agent filler doesn't help. A rotation of Scherzer, Strasburg, Gio, Ross, and filler may not be able to carry the craptastic offense (which won't get better with a older Wert, an older Zimmerman, and taylor's .250/200ks replacing span full time)

A rotation that featured Edwin Jackson and Ross Detwiler had the best record in baseball in 2012.