2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread

[DPMOmaha]

If anyone just expects you can pencil Tyler Moore in for 30/100 with stellar defense... more power to you.

Give me 22/70 with steady defense and even marginal improvements from Harper, Espinosa plus healthy seasons from Morse, Zim, Werth and Ramos and I'll take my chances.  I'd probably even take 18/60.  But his bat is too good for it not to get more than 171 AB's.  I wouldn't be the least bit shocked to see him get closer to 25/85.

[DPMOmaha]

So the first time a team makes a run, it's an exception, but when the team repeats, it's experience? got it

Somewhat, but you're probably inferring too much.  Even those young teams had players on their rosters largely because they'd been through the fires before.  Experience matters.

[Mattionals]

I think without LaRoche and Jackson, Garcia becoming the number 5, Morse or Moore at 1B/LF and slight improvements from Espinosa, Ramos, Strasburg and Harper with a sprinkle of degradation from Zimm, Morse, Werth, Gio and Desmond would warrant around 92-93 wins.  JZimm and Ross probably have similar marks.

It's enough to make the postseason, but it might not be enough to win the division outright.  I'm less willing to go long term on a position player and would rather have a rental guy for a year or two to play the outfield and have a lefty bat.  Spend on pitching.

[nobleisthyname]

I expect Moore in left field will give us what Morse in left field gave us last year, maybe a little better. But that's not saying much as Morse was only slightly above replacement level with his weakened bat and horrendous defense. If Morse is healthy (big if) and at first he will easily make up his for his weak glove with his strong bat. I can live with that, especially if Skole or someone comes up to become the bench option that 2012 Moore was.

Maybe I'm overestimating him but I expect Harper to hit at least 30 homeruns next year and I wouldn't be surprised if he's knocking on the door for 40. I'm predicting a sophomore season comparable to Giancarlo Stanton's, maybe a little better due to his better contact and batting eye. That alone will be a huge boost to the offense.

I'll be fine going in house for the offense. I would not be satisfied going in house for our #5 starter... I like Garcia but I want to keep him in the pen. It shouldn't be hard to get at least one of the myriad solid arms on the market this offseason and I will be crying out with the LAC crowd if they stand pat there.

[lastobjective]

If Garcia becomes our #5, then who will be the backup/replacement if one of our starters goes down? Do we trade for one, or do we have anyone in the minors who could take over?

[nobleisthyname]

If Garcia becomes our #5, then who will be the backup/replacement if one of our starters goes down? Do we trade for one, or do we have anyone in the minors who could take over?

Zach Duke 

[Slateman]

Or we could just keep Lannan as the number 5

[imref]

Or we could just keep Lannan as the number 5

rizzo doesn't like soft-tossers.

[Tyler Durden]

I expect Moore in left field will give us what Morse in left field gave us last year, maybe a little better. But that's not saying much as Morse was only slightly above replacement level with his weakened bat and horrendous defense. If Morse is healthy (big if) and at first he will easily make up his for his weak glove with his strong bat. I can live with that, especially if Skole or someone comes up to become the bench option that 2012 Moore was.

Maybe I'm overestimating him but I expect Harper to hit at least 30 homeruns next year and I wouldn't be surprised if he's knocking on the door for 40. I'm predicting a sophomore season comparable to Giancarlo Stanton's, maybe a little better due to his better contact and batting eye. That alone will be a huge boost to the offense.

I'll be fine going in house for the offense. I would not be satisfied going in house for our #5 starter... I like Garcia but I want to keep him in the pen. It shouldn't be hard to get at least one of the myriad solid arms on the market this offseason and I will be crying out with the LAC crowd if they stand pat there.

I mostly agree with this. 

Morse/Moore should be about the same as Morse/LaRoche.  Plus, the team won 98 games last year with Morse not even playing for the first month or so and getting not much at all out of the LF position.  I remember Nady and Lombo playing there early in the season.

[Tyler Durden]

Or they should do like the Angels did last year and sign the best pitcher and best hitter on the market.  Hell, they signed one of the best right handed hitters of all time.  How did they do?

And the Nats lost to a team that didn't re-sign one of the best right handed hitters of all time.  They got beat by the supposedly washed up and declining Carlos Beltran and Peter Kozcma and Daniel Descalso.

And the Giants - who was their big signing last offseason? 

[PC]

Or they should do like the Angels did last year and sign the best pitcher and best hitter on the market.  Hell, they signed one of the best right handed hitters of all time.  How did they do?

And the Nats lost to a team that didn't re-sign one of the best right handed hitters of all time.  They got beat by the supposedly washed up and declining Carlos Beltran and Peter Kozcma and Daniel Descalso.

And the Giants - who was their big signing last offseason? 

I'll go back to my old bromide that I use every offseason because it always seems to apply.

There's a difference between trying to win by design and trying to win by accident.  Winning by design means getting enough really good players on our roster (and paying them accordingly) and winning.  Winning by accident is...the 2012 A's or O's.  No one who was trying to win by design would have to put together the rosters those team had.

Standing pat for the Nationals puts the winning by design theory in question and forces us more into the winning by accident realm.  Moving a player to this position and backfilling those other positions and picking up some random #5 starter and a scrap lefty reliever is not a way to win by design.

[imref]

Or they should do like the Angels did last year and sign the best pitcher and best hitter on the market.  Hell, they signed one of the best right handed hitters of all time.  How did they do?

And the Nats lost to a team that didn't re-sign one of the best right handed hitters of all time.  They got beat by the supposedly washed up and declining Carlos Beltran and Peter Kozcma and Daniel Descalso.

And the Giants - who was their big signing last offseason? 

Melky Cabrerra and angel pagan.

[DPMOmaha]

Standing pat for the Nationals puts the winning by design theory in question and forces us more into the winning by accident realm.  Moving a player to this position and backfilling those other positions and picking up some random #5 starter and a scrap lefty reliever is not a way to win by design.

I'd counter with the notion that this is exactly how Rizzo designed it.  Draft, develop and fill in the gaps.  He's got a very talented roster, even without LaRoche.  Perhaps it developed a little earlier than expected.

A #5 starter and lefty reliever are complementary pieces, not foundational ones.  This seems much more similar to what the Braves did last off season than what the A's or O's might have stumbled into.

[houston-nat]

Or they should do like the Angels did last year and sign the best pitcher and best hitter on the market.  Hell, they signed one of the best right handed hitters of all time.  How did they do?

And the Nats lost to a team that didn't re-sign one of the best right handed hitters of all time.  They got beat by the supposedly washed up and declining Carlos Beltran and Peter Kozcma and Daniel Descalso.

And the Giants - who was their big signing last offseason? 

The playoffs are basically a crapshoot. We can say that we were eliminated because Gio Gonzalez walked a couple guys or Drew Storen made a couple really sucky pitches. You can make all the improvements you want and still have them undone by one or two moments of sucky performance or luck.

That said, you should still make improvements because it's all about increasing the odds. But we have an MLB-best team already, give or take, and the thing we need most of all is another tilt at the rest of baseball to show we mean business. And a couple fewer ninth-inning balls finding gaps.

[HalfSmokes]

Standing pat for the Nationals puts the winning by design theory in question and forces us more into the winning by accident realm.  Moving a player to this position and backfilling those other positions and picking up some random #5 starter and a scrap lefty reliever is not a way to win by design.

what if the design is mostly homegrown talent at the positions with Werth filling a position our farm couldn't during this window behind a rotation that's very strong at the top through trades and homegrown talent? That seems like a reasonable plan

[lastobjective]

Zach Duke 

Anything is better than CMW.

[monkeyhit]

Everyone seems to know that LaRoche is the key to unlocking the playoff door again.

Rizzo won't (or will he?) toss away that key and be left out in the cold Wild Card Race ... or worse.

[zimm_da_kid]

Anything is better than CMW.

i think we can all agree on this.

[imref]

what if the design is mostly homegrown talent at the positions with Werth filling a position our farm couldn't during this window behind a rotation that's very strong at the top through trades and homegrown talent? That seems like a reasonable plan

i think it's pretty rare to find teams that overpaid for aging talent and won a championship as a result.

[zimm_da_kid]

Everyone seems to know that LaRoche is the key to unlocking the playoff door again.

I disagree.

[HalfSmokes]

i think it's pretty rare to find teams that overpaid for aging talent and won a championship as a result.

Giants had Zito last year, Cards had Berkman the year before, before the giants the yankees had their whole roster

[PC]

what if the design is mostly homegrown talent at the positions with Werth filling a position our farm couldn't during this window behind a rotation that's very strong at the top through trades and homegrown talent? That seems like a reasonable plan

It's WINNING by design so in order for this to work the homegrown talent has to be good enough to win, now.  Moving unproven homegrown talent up and around is not a winning by design strategy.  You might win ultimately but it's clearly winning by accident to successfully replace more proven players with unproven ones.

[HalfSmokes]

It's WINNING by design so in order for this to work the homegrown talent has to be good enough to win, now.  Moving unproven homegrown talent up and around is not a winning by design strategy.  You might win ultimately but it's clearly winning by accident to successfully replace more proven players with unproven ones.

you mean like when any team moves a rookie into the starting lineup?

[imref]

It's WINNING by design so in order for this to work the homegrown talent has to be good enough to win, now.  Moving unproven homegrown talent up and around is not a winning by design strategy.  You might win ultimately but it's clearly winning by accident to successfully replace more proven players with unproven ones.

so was 2012 an accident given we promoted an unproven Bryce Harper?

[Vega]

so was 2012 an accident given we promoted an unproven Bryce Harper?

And went with the unproven Detwiler over the proven Lannanator?