The other thing is that nothing about that changes over the next few years, besides the fact they'll have to spend even MORE money to resign Halladay (unless he pitches 225 innings next year and his 2014 option vests) and Ruiz (Phillies have a cheap option for next year but he'll be looking for one good payday in 2014 of probably 3/$45 million or so). Only Utley falls off the books.
So it's almost certain they'll be spending $130 million or so on Lee, Halladay, Howard, Papelbon, Rollins, Ruiz, and Hamels for the next 3 seasons.
Given the lack of talent in their farm system, I really wonder how they're going to remain competitive. It's all well and good to say they're going to save money by letting Victorino and Pence walk to save $20 million, but to replace them with what? No one's trading you two major league ready OF for those guys, and you don't have anyone in the minors to take their place since you screwed up Dom Brown so badly. You can try to save by letting Blanton walk, but again - who are you replacing him with that's cheap and replaces the production? Trevor May is struggling in AA, Jesse Biddle is in high-A, Julio Rodriguez isn't ready.
So let's say you get 15 WAR from Hamels, Lee and Halladay and 2 from Papelbon. Let's be generous and say 4 WAR from Ruiz and Rollins and 3 from Howard. That's 28 WAR, which makes them a 77 win team or so with replacement-level players around them, having already spent about $135 million.
Unless you believe Ruben Amaro is an alchemist and can produce prospects from nothingness, they're going to have to buy additional wins. Even if they get those wins at market value they're going to have to spend $180 million a year to compete for the playoffs. Not to be a perennial division winner, just to compete for the playoffs. $200 million might make them the favorite every year, but would still not guarantee them playoff berths with the future of the Nationals and Braves looking so bright.
