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I can't believe I picked the Cubs. let that be a warnign to all you aclohol abusrs.
Which squad did BP predict to win it all?
As the games get ready to start, I've got the post-season probabilitiescalculated and here they are. Like last year, I am using left and right-handrecords as part of the process; it turns out that every team in thepost-season is better against left-handed pitching, with the single exceptionof Tampa Bay. Its therir bad luck to match up in the first round against oneof only two teams with two left-handed starters.I ran this set twice, once with Minnesota and once with Chicago, and took thesimple average of the results - at least until we figure out who will actuallyfill that slot. The Cubs race out to being a clear favorite, but the program doesn't "know"about the injury issues facing Harden and Zambrano. October 14 -unfortunately, an off day in the NL post-season - will be the 100thanniversary of the last Cubs' World Championship celebration, courtesy ofOrval Overall's three-hit shutout.---------- Sept 30 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS YesterdayLAA 45.9823 24.7034 12.0638TB 62.5140 30.8331 15.5120? 37.4860 12.5744 4.8247BOS 54.0177 31.8891 18.4782CHC 71.8324 53.3185 31.9942PHI 45.2374 13.8974 5.1543LAD 28.1676 14.0791 4.6073MIL 54.7626 18.7050 7.3655
The only ones with their World Champion picks still competing, of those who posted their picks are:Air Zimmerman - Tampa Bay Rays spidernat - Philadelphia Phillies(Image removed from quote.) (Image removed from quote.)(Image removed from quote.)
They are running a Monte Carlo simulation after each day, playing the rest of the playoffs out 1 million times to calculate the probabilities of each team winning. Here are the results of the Monte Carlo simulation from just before the start of the playoffs, along with the commentary:
Are the Cubs still coming out as 30% chance winners of the WS?
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It must have1 been rigged. According to my calculations, the Phillies should have been eliminated 6.27 games ago. 1 "have" as opposed to "of"
. . . and according to Nate Silver's simulations, as of last night, the Cubs STILL have a 36.7% chance of winning the 2008 World Series!!