Author Topic: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread  (Read 168766 times)

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Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2100: November 27, 2012, 11:10:36 PM »
Nope.

Offline cmdterps44

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2101: November 27, 2012, 11:32:30 PM »
Quote from: Mattionals
Won't happen.  Dodgers are going to give him stupid stupid money.

Honestly the "bidding war" with Greinke will only hurt the Nats trying to re-sign their own young talent[.  Strasburg is going to cost epic dollars if Greinke even comes close to the CC contract.

Greinke will definitely get big money, especially by the Dodgers. But I'd like to think we'd think ahead and not backload the contract so much to prepare for the Strasburg signing.

Offline blue911

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2102: November 27, 2012, 11:40:54 PM »
Greinke will definitely get big money, especially by the Dodgers. But I'd like to think we'd think ahead and not backload the contract so much to prepare for the Strasburg signing.

I've never seen a large contract front loaded.

Offline cmdterps44

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2103: November 27, 2012, 11:46:41 PM »
I want the contract EQUAL LOADED DAMMIT

Offline blue911

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2104: November 27, 2012, 11:50:39 PM »
I want the contract EQUAL LOADED DAMMIT

There has to be a tax advantage to backloading contracts.

Online Mattionals

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2105: November 28, 2012, 12:01:58 AM »
I'm not saying they would, just that I would.  Also Myers>Goodwin and you make room for good players.

I won't deny Myers is better than Goodwin, but Myers is a Harper type guy.  Converted catcher with a strong arm but doesn't have Harper like wheels to be an elite defender in CF.  He will likely be an average defender in a corner OF spot with a plus arm.  He is also a middle of the order bat.  The Nats have a glut of slugging hitters who strike out a ton.  Myers is another free swinger and although he hit over .300, he struck out 140 times in 2012.

Goodwin is not the cornerstone player that Myers could be, but the Nats have a few of those already.  Goodwin is the perfect compliment piece that the team could use.

Online Mattionals

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2106: November 28, 2012, 12:13:28 AM »
Greinke will definitely get big money, especially by the Dodgers. But I'd like to think we'd think ahead and not backload the contract so much to prepare for the Strasburg signing.

Stras is locked up until 2016 right?  If Greinke gets a 6 year deal, he would be here through the 2018 season.  Even at equal AAV for each year, he would make 25 Mil a year if you think the Dodgers would pay that.

2016 Strasburg will be 28 and could command well over that 25 Mil a year figure.  If he got the same equal AAV style contract that Greinke gets in this scenario, the Nats would have at least Greinke, Strasburg, Zimmerman and Werth with contracts giving out over 20 Mil a year.

Granted it would only be one year of Werth but that could potentially be close to 100 Million wrapped up in FOUR players.  I'd love to have Greinke, but I don't know many teams that can swallow a chunk of change that big for four guys.  Hey maybe the Nats do it anyway.  If the Lerner's get the huge TV money bump and decide to spend wildly like the Tigers owner, who am I to say NO.

SPEND ALL TEH MONIES!  :devil:

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2107: November 28, 2012, 12:36:07 AM »
No, they need a stud pitcher.  The best way they're going to get one is by a similar path the Nats took to get Gio last year.

Offline Kevrock

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2108: November 28, 2012, 06:20:16 AM »
With the Dodger's new TV deal and the Angels' current TV deal, and the two of them in a bidding war, there is zero way we can afford Greinke.

Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2109: November 28, 2012, 06:26:06 AM »
The was a recent article about players wanting huge signing bonuses before the end of the year in order to avoid the Obama tax hikes.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2110: November 28, 2012, 07:15:16 AM »
I don't think he is a AAAA player, he really has shown that he is a beast.  He probably will give the Royals the best return on young pitching which is what they need desperately.  They also have a good farm system so they may be willing to trade a talent like Myers to obtain a front of the rotation starter which they don't have in the system.

Why would the Nats even want Myers?  He is an OFer and unless the long term plan is Harper in CF and Goodwin is traded, it doesn't make sense to trade for Myers.

This. Royals are asking for Lester or Shields. Detwiler will be laughed at and hung up on.

And why do we want Myers? Seriously? The guy is projecting to be a 30 home run guy who hits for .280+ average. I'd gladly deal Goodwin and Detwiler for Myers. I'd laugh all the way to the bank with that. Hell, we could put Myers at first and be done with it. He's a former catcher, so it's not like he would be lost at first.

Offline Kevrock

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2111: November 28, 2012, 08:40:11 AM »
Why would the Royals be willing to part with him unless they think they are selling high? It's not like they are one pitcher away from a pennant.

Us trading a starter for Myers would be so backwards.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2112: November 28, 2012, 08:41:11 AM »
Value-wise, that would be fine but it would leave us with lots of holes.  CF past this season would be one hole but the bigger one would be the 4th spot in the rotation - especially when we still need a 5th guy.  1B is a spot we already have reasonably covered with Morse and Moore. 

But then, maybe you could package Morse and Moore and bring in Dexter Fowler or someone like that?

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2113: November 28, 2012, 08:55:56 AM »
Why would the Royals be willing to part with him unless they think they are selling high? It's not like they are one pitcher away from a pennant.

Us trading a starter for Myers would be so backwards.

They might be one pitcher away. That division went for 88 wins. They've added Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie. Expect a bounce back year from Hosmer and another stellar year from Butler and Gordon. That gives them some added offense, especially if Francouer can have an average year. They improve their pitching and they are right in the mix for the division

Value-wise, that would be fine but it would leave us with lots of holes.  CF past this season would be one hole but the bigger one would be the 4th spot in the rotation - especially when we still need a 5th guy.  1B is a spot we already have reasonably covered with Morse and Moore. 

But then, maybe you could package Morse and Moore and bring in Dexter Fowler or someone like that?

Or we keep Myers in the minors for another year, let Morse play first, either trade him at the deadline or ride him to the playoffs, then let him walk next season. Myers starts at first. Harper moves to RF, Goodwin comes up to play CF, Werth moves to LF, package Danny Espinosa and Moore to Seattle for one of their starting pitching prospects, start Rendon at 2B and keep on going to the World Series!!!!

Offline comish4lif

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2114: November 28, 2012, 09:43:04 AM »
Here's how I've heard the justification for the backloading of contracts... from the GM's perspective, if you sign a guy (like Werth) and it works and the player plays well and you win a pennant, all is forgiven. It worked out, right? If it doesn't work out, the player is a bust and you don't sniff the post season, you're no longer the GM (You're Fired!) and it's someone else's mess to clean up.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2115: November 28, 2012, 09:47:39 AM »
I totally agree, what GM even thinks they'll be around for the year 7 of the deal? And if they are around, it probably means that they won, so their job is likely secure. The one thing I wonder is, from a player's perspective, under the old type A/B compensation system, a large final year of a deal made offering arbitration a lot less likely since pay can only be cut a small amount in arbitration, so they wanted a larger the base number to make an arb offer less likely. The only reason that I can see a player still wanting to back load is to have some protection against a trade (who wants an aging outfielder for $20+ million per)

Offline NationalHeat

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2116: November 28, 2012, 10:08:12 AM »
This. Royals are asking for Lester or Shields. Detwiler will be laughed at and hung up on.

And why do we want Myers? Seriously? The guy is projecting to be a 30 home run guy who hits for .280+ average. I'd gladly deal Goodwin and Detwiler for Myers. I'd laugh all the way to the bank with that. Hell, we could put Myers at first and be done with it. He's a former catcher, so it's not like he would be lost at first.

I wouldn't trade Det for Lester, and I suspect the Sox would make that swap if they could.

Offline blue911

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2117: November 28, 2012, 10:17:21 AM »
I totally agree, what GM even thinks they'll be around for the year 7 of the deal? And if they are around, it probably means that they won, so their job is likely secure. The one thing I wonder is, from a player's perspective, under the old type A/B compensation system, a large final year of a deal made offering arbitration a lot less likely since pay can only be cut a small amount in arbitration, so they wanted a larger the base number to make an arb offer less likely. The only reason that I can see a player still wanting to back load is to have some protection against a trade (who wants an aging outfielder for $20+ million per)

Ernie Grunfeld?

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2118: November 28, 2012, 11:01:51 AM »
Man, there's some major Detwiler love going on here.

I think we can all enjoy us some Det, but let's be realistic about how other teams view him. He's never thrown more than 165 innings, he had a 2/1 K/BB ratio last season that was the "best" of his career, and he basically has no off speed pitches.

Rizzo would be laughed off the phone if he offered Detwiler for Myers, who's a top 5 prospect.

And he's in no way as valuable as Shields or Lester. Before last year when the entire Red Sox organization was a shambles, Lester put up 4 seasons totaling 813 innings of a 135 ERA+. Shields has averaged better than 220 innings a year for the past 6 seasons while putting up a nearly 4/1 K/BB ratio while pitching tons of games vs. some of the toughest lineups in baseball.

I love Detwiler, but let him put up a full season as a good number 4 starter before we start trading him straight up for Babe Ruth.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2119: November 28, 2012, 11:07:36 AM »
Jordan Zimmermann gets you Wil Myers. I wouldn't want to do that, but that's who Kansas City would ask for.

Zimmermann=Shields=Lester.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2120: November 28, 2012, 11:19:34 AM »
Jordan is better than Lester. Period. 

When it comes to Det, there is a difference between not having offspeed pitches and not throwing them.  He has a good slider, but why would he throw it much when he was getting the results he was getting with his fastball?

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2121: November 28, 2012, 11:42:25 AM »
Jordan is better than 2012 Lester. Period. 

When it comes to Det, there is a difference between not having offspeed pitches and not throwing them.  He has a good slider, but why would he throw it much when he was getting the results he was getting with his fastball?

Fixed that for ya. Other than that they've been about equal with maybe a slight edge to Lester. And apart from 2012, Lester is most definitely a better pitcher than Detwiler.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2122: November 28, 2012, 12:01:58 PM »
Detwiler's offspeed pitches grade out negative, even with how little he throws them. His fastball is a very good pitch.

Obviously I too love Zimmermann, and would rather have him than Jon Lester. But to other teams, Zimmermann=Lester=Shields in the sense that if one of the three teams was offering one of those pitchers, the others would have to include the comparable pitcher to "match" the offer. If Washington offered Zimmermann, Tampa couldn't offer Hellickson, and if Tampa offered Shields, we couldn't offer Detwiler.

Offline tomterp

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2123: November 28, 2012, 01:10:25 PM »
There has to be a tax advantage to backloading contracts.

Not that I'm aware of.

NPV analysis would lead you down that road, plus you see the escalation in revenue due to TV contracts, that can better support large comp levels in later years.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2124: November 28, 2012, 01:38:37 PM »
Jordan Zimmermann gets you Wil Myers. I wouldn't want to do that, but that's who Kansas City would ask for.

Zimmermann=Shields=Lester.

Not according to the Royals. They wanted Lester/Shields and other pieces.

And unless Lester has completely lost it, he's better than Zimmermann. He's only 28 and a lefty. He's been a number 1 on a competitive team. If he regains 2010 form, he's one of the Top 20 pitchers in baseball.
Fixed that for ya. Other than that they've been about equal with maybe a slight edge to Lester. And apart from 2012, Lester is most definitely a better pitcher than Detwiler.

This. Apart from 2012, Lester pitched in the AL and was better than Zimmermann in the NL.