Kevin Goldstein on Norris

[R-Zim#11]

Prospects who have stalled: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=5429970

Derek Norris, C, Washington Nationals:
Although recovery from a major wrist injury is a mitigating factor, that alone can't wipe away Norris' strange line of .240/.415/.397 for High-A Potomac. An offense-first catcher, Norris has remained an absolute walk machine, but the wrist issue has made him almost too passive. His ability to hit for average and power has slipped away. Because of his defensive shortcomings, he can't afford to be a one-trick pony at the plate, and an expected 2011 assignment to Double-A could be a make-or-break season for Norris, at least in terms of his reputation as one of the better catching prospects in baseball.

I would say give him at least a year...

For example: Zimmerman had 44 HRs in 1267 AB prior to hammate surgury. In the 945 ABs post (ignoring 2008 when he was recovering), he has 51.

Now there are certainly other mitigating factors, such as the addition of Eckstein, maturation in general, and the move from cavernous RFK, but this is at least interesting to see the comparison.

[Potomac Cannons]

Another ESPN idiot.  Somebody with Insider access want to point out to him that Norris' defense has taken huge strides and several articles have been written saying so?

How do these incompetent douchebags have jobs?

EDIT:  Also, Norris' power drop lines up more with the concussion issues after getting beaned.  He put up .491/.439/.930 in his 13 May games before getting hit in the head.  That, added to moving up a level from last year, makes this yet another BS piece from that worthless "sports" site.

[NFA Brian]

I would not cast Goldstein as an idiot so quickly. He is actually pretty plugged into the scouting community. While you may not agree with his assessment, it is informed by talking to people who have seen him play.

[tomterp]

Another ESPN idiot.  Somebody with Insider access want to point out to him that Norris' defense has taken huge strides and several articles have been written saying so?

How do these incompetent douchebags have jobs?

EDIT:  Also, Norris' power drop lines up more with the concussion issues after getting beaned.  He put up .491/.439/.930 in his 13 May games before getting hit in the head.  That, added to moving up a level from last year, makes this yet another BS piece from that worthless "sports" site.

Goldstein's from Baseball Prospectus, ESPN is now getting some of that content.

[Lintyfresh85]

I would not cast Goldstein as an idiot so quickly. He is actually pretty plugged into the scouting community. While you may not agree with his assessment, it is informed by talking to people who have seen him play.

The baseball community also thought what Dan Haren was traded for turned out to be a fair deal.

I don't find them to be nearly as smart/accurate about things as they seem to think.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/why-mlb-teams-arent-big-dan-haren-fans/

When I was putting together my Trade Value series, my preliminary version included Dan Haren. A good pitcher on a good contract, not yet 30, and durable as can be, I figured he would draw a lot of interest if the D’Backs put him on the market. Then, while hanging out in Anaheim, I started talking to friends in the game about the list, and a consensus quickly emerged – they were not nearly as high on Haren as I was.

After a series of conversations that all went the same way – “He’s okay, but I wouldn’t give up any of those guys for him, or a bunch of other guys you didn’t include”

[Lintyfresh85]

Hell, Norris is hot right now as is.

Post All-Star break: 31 games, .823 OPS

Past 10 games: .286/.457/.514/.971

[Potomac Cannons]

Hell, Norris is hot right now as is.

Post All-Star break: 31 games, .823 OPS

Past 10 games: .286/.457/.514/.971

Yep.  Goldstein might want to retract that piece and blame it on his evil twin douchebag.

[NJ Ave]

It's really strange how little research these guys do, though, considering this is their FULLTIME job. And I say that respecting KG a great deal. But come on, just do some simple research and figure out (a) hamate bones often take a full 12 months to recover from and (b) all the stats say something weird is going on because of the injury.

For example, Norris is only hitting 8% line drives (the balls that fall for hits most often) and is hitting 65% flyballs, including 19% on infield flyballs (the balls that fall for hits LEAST often). This as opposed to last year where he hit 20% line drives (almost all healthy hitters fall between 15-25% line drives) and 44% flyballs (13% infield flyballs).

So obviously SOMETHING is going on that's causing him to make unsustainably weird contact with the ball (I dare anyone to try to hit 20% popflys). The most likely is a hamate bone injury that messes with a lot of hitter for a full year.

I actually find it amazing that he's controlling the strikezone so much this year and hitting for as much power as he is considering he's making such poor contact by his standards. I think he's going to be an absolute monster next year once he gets better - like .320/450/.550 type monster.

[Evolution33]

In some ways it has to be really hard to be a guy like Goldstein. His job isn't just to cover the 30 teams of baseball which has to be near impossible on its own, but to cover the prospects. There is a list of 100 top prospects that might play on 90 different teams. To really watch these guys and get a feel for them has to be a hard thing to do. The guys they talk to might have seen the player a month ago and I am sure before writing anything on a player they want to verify everything with numbers and eyeballs. It seems to me to be a very very tough job to try and cover so much and to then be right and accurate in everything that is said.

[tomterp]

The baseball community also thought what Dan Haren was traded for turned out to be a fair deal.

I don't find them to be nearly as smart/accurate about things as they seem to think.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/why-mlb-teams-arent-big-dan-haren-fans/

Matt Schwarz of Baseball Prospectus wrote a lengthy analysis of the Haren trade, and concluded:

Regardless, unless sabermetrics is just way off in its valuation of Haren, or every other buying team is clueless about it, then the Diamondbacks valued this package substantially more than everyone else. I am not convinced there is any reason to distrust everyone else’s opinions of these players in favor of the Diamondbacks' apparent evaluation. They may come to prove everyone wrong in the coming years, but it seems very clear that the majority of teams did not aggressively target these same players, and that tells me something about their likely value.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11623

[NJ Ave]

Oh yeah, I agree. It's just that if you know a guy has a hamate bone injury, you should be taking scouting reports with a HUGE grain of salt before you report on them. He should know that.

I mean, everyone thought Ryan Zimmerman was no longer a franchise talent in 2008 after breaking his hamate bone in late 2007 when he went down to a .774 OPS and looked like he was losing whatever power he had (30 points less ISO than the year before). Of course, then 2009 rolls around and he bumps his ISO up 70 points, which he maintained into this year. For Ryan, he hit a lot more grounders the year he had the hamate bone. For Norris it seems to be an inability to square up the ball and hit line drives, forcing his average down.

Point being, maybe that injury just changes the way your hands feel enough to mess up your swing for a year.

[blue911]

Oh yeah, I agree. It's just that if you know a guy has a hamate bone injury, you should be taking scouting reports with a HUGE grain of salt before you report on them. He should know that.

I mean, everyone thought Ryan Zimmerman was no longer a franchise talent in 2008 after breaking his hamate bone in late 2007 when he went down to a .774 OPS and looked like he was losing whatever power he had (30 points less ISO than the year before). Of course, then 2009 rolls around and he bumps his ISO up 70 points, which he maintained into this year. For Ryan, he hit a lot more grounders the year he had the hamate bone. For Norris it seems to be an inability to square up the ball and hit line drives, forcing his average down.

Point being, maybe that injury just changes the way your hands feel enough to mess up your swing for a year.

Zimmerman tore his labrum in May of 2008. That is what most people attributed his dip in power numbers. Prior to his labrum injury, his power looked like pretty much standard for him (A crappy April followed by a strong showing the rest of the way)

[Lintyfresh85]

Matt Schwarz of Baseball Prospectus wrote a lengthy analysis of the Haren trade, and concluded:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11623

That's fine and all... but unless the Diamondbacks and DiPoto are stupid and skipped over better players... I have to believe the offer they took was the best they could get. That's on the heads of the other GM's.

You're telling me the Nats couldn't have put together a better package for Haren? I'm positive they could have.

Desmond/Espinosa, Marrero, Stammen and another throw in. They probably jump on it.

[NatsDad14]

I don't get the complaining that Norris doesn't have defensive shortcomings. It's like complaining that someone said that Adam Dunn has defensive shortcomings even though he has improved a lot this year. CS% doesn't mean much when it comes to defense. I would like to see his wild pitch numbers. Good catchers stop a lot of wild pitches (Pudge), while bad ones don't (Nieves).

[HalfSmokes]

I would take everything written about prospects in A/AA with a huge grain of salt. How much film is there of these games/how often do the writers watch it/how heavily scouted are they, and how honest are those scouts with writers vs. keeping their real opinions with the people paying them.

[sportsfan882]

I don't get the complaining that Norris doesn't have defensive shortcomings. It's like complaining that someone said that Adam Dunn has defensive shortcomings even though he has improved a lot this year. CS% doesn't mean much when it comes to defense. I would like to see his wild pitch numbers. Good catchers stop a lot of wild pitches (Pudge), while bad ones don't (Nieves).

49 games at catcher this year:

6 Errors, .986 Field Pct, 4 Passed balls, 22 SBs, 27 CS

[tripan1035]

I don't get the complaining that Norris doesn't have defensive shortcomings. It's like complaining that someone said that Adam Dunn has defensive shortcomings even though he has improved a lot this year. CS% doesn't mean much when it comes to defense. I would like to see his wild pitch numbers. Good catchers stop a lot of wild pitches (Pudge), while bad ones don't (Nieves).

GMUNat has a great point.  Top defensive catchers block a lot of wild pitches and those stats don't show up anywhere.  Often it's just positioning and technique, along with desire.  If a catcher is lazy and reaches for a ball in the dirt, it's a wild pitch on the pitcher.  Sort of like having a 1B who's not good at scooping throws out of the dirt -- if it hits the dirt, it's almost always an error on the fielder even if it's an easy scoop.  But your infielder's errors are way up compared to a team with a slick fielding 1B.  Same with catchers who matador pitches, if it hits the dirt -- wild pitch.  But then pitchers aren't willing to throw that curve or slider in the dirt ahead in the count for fear it winds up at the backstop.  The stats (like CS% or catcher assists) don't always show defensive improvement.  You gotta see them handle a game every day in person.

[joneric]

Just curious...how many of you commenting on Norris have actually seen him play, more than once or twice?

[Lintyfresh85]

On top of that, how many of us (myself included) would even know what to look for when "scouting" his defense?

[NFA Brian]

On top of that, how many of us (myself included) would even know what to look for when "scouting" his defense?

I've picked up a minimal set of things to watch. It's really interesting to watch the scouts doing their job at minor league games. They pay attention to things that 99.9% of the people there don't see.

Catchers are graded on how quickly they transfer the ball from glove to hand, time to 2B (including how far back they go on their throw and how they position their feet). There are a slew of other things

[Lintyfresh85]

Looking at Carolina League stats... I really don't think there's a thing to worry about.

Rank among leaders. * - not enough PA's to qualify for the rate stats... but I included his hypothetical ranking.

BB - 1st
OBP - 2nd
SLG% - 26th
OPS - 13th

If his power returns at all (which it will) Norris will continue to post outstanding numbers. The kid is a stud. Only injuries can hold him back.

[Potomac Cannons]

Just curious...how many of you commenting on Norris have actually seen him play, more than once or twice?

I've seen him 10-15 times this year.  I live less than 5 minutes down the road from Pfitzner.  It's much easier to scout the defensive part of a catchers game than the actual game calling/handling of a pitcher.  Norris seems to get better every time I see him as far as lateral movement, anticipation, accuracy of throws etc.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

In some ways it has to be really hard to be a guy like Goldstein.

Yeah, he has such a hard job.  Too bad he can't cover something more simplistic like global politics or biomedical engineering.

[Evolution33]

Yeah, he has such a hard job.  Too bad he can't cover something more simplistic like global politics or biomedical engineering.

Klaw Syndrom

Don't let this happen to you.

[cmdterps44]

Yeah, he has such a hard job.  Too bad he can't cover something more simplistic like global politics or biomedical engineering.

good to see you posting again