Nats in '08 Rival Astros '07 Disastrous Draft?

[blue911]

I thought that Crow can still return to college next year?  He is represented by an 'advisor' and not an 'agent.'  It is some shady loophole that allows the player to get the advice of an agent (and the agent works on the player's behalf), but it isn't technically having an agent.  Crow's advisor is JD Smart.

Here is a decent explanation:http://www.armchairgm.com/Agent_or_Advisor

Yeah I knew it was a matter of semantics. I'm using the press reports for my information (which means I'm probably wrong). This why I think MLB need to switch to a NBA type system. That and shorten the signing window to July 1st.

[sportsfan882]

That's what I thought. I figured Crow could still return to college for his senior year but someone said yesterday that he couldn't because he hired an agent.

[natsfan4evr]

Exactly. Why draft someone you know you aren't going to sign. What a complete waste of time, money, and resources. All of the hard work done by the scouts and other members of the F.O. go to waste because the Lerners won't shell out a few hundred thousand more to get everyone signed. They had no problem wasting in excess of $10 Million dollars on players that aren't even on the team anymore. 

If you pay everyone over slot, we are going to continuously get ripped off. We paid more last year, because MLB left our farm system in shambles. Now that we have a top 10 farm system, we shouldn't be eager to pay everyone way above the norm, just because.

Also, you have to believe that when the August 15th deadline comes around, young men are going to be very eager to sign. They see a large amount of money being guaranteed to them, just for playing the game they love so much.

Aaron Crow is an idiot if he doesn't sign. He has a legitimate shot to be up sometime next season. How many other teams would give him that chance?

You always draft the best available, and not worry about if they will sign or not. A lot didn't think that Destin Hood would sign, yet he did.

I still believe that they will cave in eventually. This is all a cat and mouse game, and the Nats shouldn't give in.

[blue911]

That's what I thought. I figured Crow could still return to college for his senior year but someone said yesterday that he couldn't because he hired an agent.

That could have been me. See above.

[natsfan4evr]

That's what I thought. I figured Crow could still return to college for his senior year but someone said yesterday that he couldn't because he hired an agent.

I'm not wishing this on him, but watch him get a career ending injury next season. No 2.5-3 million dollars, and no future playing baseball.
If he really expects to go much higher than #9 next year, he is dreaming.

[blue911]

If you pay everyone over slot, we are going to continuously get ripped off. We paid more last year, because MLB left our farm system in shambles. Now that we have a top 10 farm system, we shouldn't be eager to pay everyone way above the norm, just because.

Also, you have to believe when that August 15th deadline comes around, young men are going to be very eager to sign. They see a large amount of money being guaranteed to them, just for playing the game they love so much.

Aaron Crow is an idiot if he doesn't sign. He has a legitimate shot to be up sometime next season. How many other teams would give him that chance?

You always draft the best available, and not worry about if they will sign or not. A lot didn't think that Destin Hood would sign, yet he did.

I still believe that they will cave in eventually. This is all a cat and mouse game, and the Nats shouldn't give in.

This is exactly how I feel. 

[Nat of the Living Dead]

Nope, don't really like her that much either. 

High Five!

[sportsfan882]

Not signing everyone except for maybe Nieto makes absolutely no sense to both sides.

Crow was the 9th overall pick. Does he really think he can improve his draft spot? What if he gets injured and has TJ surgery or something? He would be a complete moron not to sign.

Espinosa and Hicks are 3rd and 4th round picks. How much money could they possibly be asking for over the slot?
Espinosa is solid but not spectacular so I doubt he could up his status much. Hicks is a 4th round pick out of HS. What are the odds that after 3 long years of college ball that he improves his status? Hell, he could flop and completely suck.

It just makes no sense for these guys not to sign.

[natsfan4evr]

Not signing everyone except for maybe Nieto makes absolutely no sense to both sides.

Crow was the 9th overall pick. Does he really think he can improve his draft spot? What if he gets injured and has TJ surgery or something? He would be a complete moron not to sign.

Espinosa and Hicks are 3rd and 4th round picks. How much money could they possibly be asking for over the slot?
Espinosa is solid but not spectacular so I doubt he could up his status much. Hicks is a 4th round pick out of HS. What are the odds that after 3 long years of college ball that he improves his status? Hell, he could flop and completely suck.

It just makes no sense for these guys not to sign.

I'm guaranteeing you that they think the Nats will cave in. After last year, agents and draftees believe the Nats will pay anything. They think we are desperate, but we really aren't.

Next week, I expect at least 2 more top 5 to sign. It might be a last minute thing, but when it comes down to crunch time, they will sign. There is a lot of pressure when August 15th comes rolling around.

[spidernat]

That's what I thought. I figured Crow could still return to college for his senior year but someone said yesterday that he couldn't because he hired an agent.

I said this because I thought he had retained the services of an agent.

[The Chief]

This sounds familiar. I remember when I started to post a panic thread or two after we started to fall after our 3-0 start and everyone hammered me because they said it was just "too early to panic". We saw what happened after that.

Not to pick on you specifically, but even a broken clock is right twice a day

And seriously...  I'm amazed at how many people here know more about managing a baseball team than both Mike Rizzo and Stan Kasten combined.  I understand that everyone is antsy about the team's management because they have no real track record to go by, but I don't quite understand why everyone seems to eager to proclaim the Lerners cheap and the Nats doomed.

[DPMOmaha]

Crow was the 9th overall pick. Does he really think he can improve his draft spot? What if he gets injured and has TJ surgery or something? He would be a complete moron not to sign.

Espinosa and Hicks are 3rd and 4th round picks. How much money could they possibly be asking for over the slot?
Espinosa is solid but not spectacular so I doubt he could up his status much. Hicks is a 4th round pick out of HS. What are the odds that after 3 long years of college ball that he improves his status? Hell, he could flop and completely suck.

Or...they could improve, light the world on fire and become a top pick.  This doesn't happen often, I realize this but if they're a top player it's not going to matter what year in school they are.  It wouldn't surprise me if Hicks goes to school.  That actually happens quite a bit for kids out of hs who think they can improve, some of them actually do want the college experience.  If they're good enough the money will still be there when they are done.  Most kids that age don't think they'll be hurt anyway.  Foolish maybe, but it happens a lot.  Espinoza is in the same situation as Blake Stouffer who we took in the 12th or 13th round or somewhere in there.  Stouffer was taken last year in as a top 5 round pick, turned it down and went back for his senior year at Texas A&M.  It's happened before.  It cost Stouffer quite a bit of money, but A&M had a great year, I don't think he regretted the decision.  Sometimes it's not about the money.  It's not always as cut and dry as we'd like to think it is.

[d_mc_nabb]

So far only three of the top ten picks have signed. If I where the Hendricks brothers I wait until after Matusz signed before I'd let Crow sign.

I know an O's fan who had the opportunity to speak to Matusz. He asked Matusz why he hadn't signed yet, and Matusz told him it s because he is waiting for Aaron Crow to sign first, to back up what his value is.

It would be both funny and irritating if Crow was waiting for Matusz to sign.

[sportsfan882]

bump. 6 Days until the deadline. Still no more players signed. Still not time to panic? 

[GburgNatsFan]

I think you have to build an organization before you build a dynasty. Teams that overpay don't do nearly as well as teams that recognize talent and grow it. Look at the Patriots, for example, versus the Redskins of late.

bump. 6 Days until the deadline. Still no more players signed. Still not time to panic? 

[sportsfan882]

I think you have to build an organization before you build a dynasty. Teams that overpay don't do nearly as well as teams that recognize talent and grow it. Look at the Patriots, for example, versus the Redskins of late.

How can you grow your own talent if you don't sign your picks. What's a few extra 100K? Nothing compared to the money they spent on Felipe, Lo Duca, Mackowiak, Estrada, etc?

[JMUalumni]

Over in the Lefave/Montz thread, agent 39 mentions to look at his blog on Monday.  This has led to some speculation, on my part and over at NFA, that one of Double Diamond's clients could be a National's draft pick AND may be signed by Monday.  Brian did some good investigative work and found that DD is currently "advising" Adrian Nieto (advisor = Joshua Kusnick).  Could this mean that we could hear about a signing of Nieto on Monday? I would like to hope so.

[GburgNatsFan]

That's one side of it, but building a reputation as a team that overpays isn't good either. Will the Skins *ever* live down Archuleta? There were players coming to the Skins just "to get paid", getting offered more than they ever expected.

You're right, though, signing picks is not the same thing. I think it's related, though.

Your point about Felipe et al is well taken.

How can you grow your own talent if you don't sign your picks. What's a few extra 100K? Nothing compared to the money they spent on Felipe, Lo Duca, Mackowiak, Estrada, etc?

[Vladman1327]

Crow has really bad mechanics -- very similar to Mark Prior.



That's been linked here many times before.  His arm comes up behind his back out of the glove -- called the "Inverted L."  And then when his arm is coming up and the ball should be facing second base (or third for some pitchers), his elbow is above his shoulder.

http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/ProfessionalPitcherAnalyses/AaronCrow.html

You may think that is a bunch of BS, and you are allowed to.  However, if you look at most of the pitchers he says have or will have arm problems, he is often correct.

I'm not so much upset that we might not sign him as I am that we drafted him in the first place.

[spidernat]

bump. 6 Days until the deadline. Still no more players signed. Still not time to panic? 

Whether we sign those guys or not, there's no reason to panic sportsfan.

How can you grow your own talent if you don't sign your picks. What's a few extra 100K? Nothing compared to the money they spent on Felipe, Lo Duca, Mackowiak, Estrada, etc?

Believe me that's easier said than done. This part of baseball is not as simplistic as some would like to believe it is. Having said that, comparing the money they spent on FA's to signing draft picks is not the same.

Besides, I'm sure we'll sign at least 2 of the picks before Friday.

[spidernat]

I'm not so much upset that we might not sign him as I am that we drafted him in the first place.

I can't say I disagree. I think we may possibly end up better off signing some of our other picks and taking a shot at drafting and signing 2 of the top 10 next season.

[sportsfan882]

Whether we sign those guys or not, there's no reason to panic sportsfan.

Believe me that's easier said than done. This part of baseball is not as simplistic as some would like to believe it is. Having said that, comparing the money they spent on FA's to signing draft picks is not the same.

Besides, I'm sure we'll sign at least 2 of the picks before Friday.

With the money they paid Estrada and Mackowiak they could have signed all of the top 5 picks.

Signing 1 of your top 5 picks is a joke. Why draft guys you will not sign? We better sign Crow and at least 1 more by Friday.

[spidernat]

That's hindsight. It wasn't a choice of signing Estrada and Mackowiak or the draft picks. It was a decision they made to spend some money for the '08 roster. The drat picks didn't come until 6 months later. That's like nagging about the money you used to pay your rent last month because you wish you had it now to spend on something else.

I hope Crow doesn't end up getting hurt or people will be nagging about why they signed him to begin with when they could've passed and used the draft pick on another player next season.

[Hondo]

I agree, but every year that they sign players over slot, it will make it harder next year to sign guys.  At some point, it has to stop.  Atleast we would get 9a.  I think you will see us sign guys for slightly over slot.

With the money they paid Estrada and Mackowiak they could have signed all of the top 5 picks.

Signing 1 of your top 5 picks is a joke. Why draft guys you will not sign? We better sign Crow and at least 1 more by Friday.

[sportsfan882]

That's hindsight. It wasn't a choice of signing Estrada and Mackowiak or the draft picks. It was a decision they made to spend some money for the '08 roster. The drat picks didn't come until 6 months later. That's like nagging about the money you used to pay your rent last month because you wish you had it now to spend on something else.

I hope Crow doesn't end up getting hurt or people will be nagging about why they signed him to begin with when they could've passed and used the draft pick on another player next season.

Not hindsight on my part. I was against the Lo Duca/Estrada signings from the start because I was one of the few that thought Flores was ready to be the every day starting Catcher.