Sorry - missed that. In that case, you're right. From a pure ROI point of view, you want to maximize the number of innings he pitches over the lifetime of the contract, without regard to what shape his arm is in once the contract ends. With one caveat: You don't care what shape his arm is in when the contract is over, but you care extremely what shape it's in up until the last day of the contract, so the more you push him early, the more you risk him late. In the last year of his contract, sure, let 'er rip and he should start 40 games and throw 300 IP.
I've never heard of an economist advocating a scorched earth policy.
