Author Topic: SuperBowl Predictions Thread (Read 3479 times)

2k6nats · « **Topic Start:** January 30, 2007, 01:01:39 PM »

Well guys, the time is upon us.Â For this week, to break ties without controversy, please state what you think the score of the game will be.

8-2.....Vladman1327
8-2.....nats2playoffs
7-3.....2k6nats
7-3.....Kenz aFan
6-4.....sportsfan882
6-4.....Nat of the LivingDead
6-2.....Nats19
5-5.....The Chief
4-6.....Senators2005
3-7.....Dave B
3-1.....Ali the Baseball Cat
2-2.....ColtonWillems
1-1.....Minty Fresh

Remember, it's only a tie if two people have the same number correct AND the same number incorrect, as someone who has participated more gets the nod.

I will refrain from voting at this time, as I would like to see how my counterparts vote.

kimnat · « **Reply #1:** January 30, 2007, 01:18:31 PM »

Bears on top, 24-21

The Chief · « **Reply #2:** January 30, 2007, 02:23:48 PM »

Bears 17-16

Senators2005 · « **Reply #3:** January 30, 2007, 03:04:10 PM »

Colts 21-3

The Chief · « **Reply #4:** January 30, 2007, 03:50:32 PM »

Quote from: Senators2005 on January 30, 2007, 03:04:10 PM

Colts 21-3

I couldn't help laughing when I read that... I think even a fool would give the Bears more than 3 points (no offense

)

Senators2005 · « **Reply #5:** January 30, 2007, 04:19:39 PM »

Quote from: The Chief on January 30, 2007, 03:50:32 PM

I couldn't help laughing when I read that... I think even a fool would give the Bears more than 3 points (no offense )

Hey, just call me Jim Bowden. If it comes true then I'm a genius.

Vladman1327 · « **Reply #6:** January 30, 2007, 04:36:11 PM »

Colts 24, Bears 17

kimnat · « **Reply #7:** January 30, 2007, 04:44:33 PM »

Dan says Colts, "It's Dungy's year." He says it'll be close, 21-20 Colts.

Nat of the Living Dead · « **Reply #8:** January 30, 2007, 05:33:22 PM »

Manning this...Manning that. The Bears are sick of hearing about Manning and they are going to make him pay for it.

Bears 31-24

nats2playoffs · « **Reply #9:** January 30, 2007, 05:58:01 PM »

Either team could blow out the other, or it could be close. There has never been a Super Bowl that went into overtime. I?d like to see that, with each team getting possession once. A few stats: The Colts have 17 rushing TDs to Da Bears 14. Number of passes over 40 yards? 9 for Da Bears, 7 for the Colts. Number of passes over 20 yards? 50 for Da Bears, 53 for the Colts. Both teams? offenses averaged 26.7 points per game.

The Colts complete 65% of passes, Da Bears 55%. The Colts convert 56% of 3rd down plays, Da Bears 37%. The Colts average 26 yds on kickoff returns with 2 TD, the Bears 20.8 with 0 TDs. But the Colts defense is one of the worst in the NFL in both punt returns and kickoff returns allowed. Da Bears were nearer the top, and lead the NFL in forcing the other team to punt (100 times.) Da Bears took the ball away a lot more than the Colts, but they also gave it away a lot more, with interceptions AND fumbles. Both teams use a Cover 2 defense, setting safeties back deep to stop big plays. Both teams have some outstanding linebackers.

Da Bears offensive line could potentially shove some of the lightweight members of the Colts defense around, and wear them down, running at will as the game progresses. Da Bears WRs also have a height advantage over the Colts entire secondary, so Grossman needs to throw them a few high balls. Peyton Manning is like a coach on the field, calling the plays based on what he sees. Grossman is trying not to lose, and I think he?s in trouble if the Bears fall behind. The Colts defense excels in that situation, so Da Bears have to stop Manning early.

I could go with either team, but let?s create the possibility of a tiebreaker involving 4 people, if 2k6nats and Kenz aFan take Da Bears, and they win it. I?ll take the Colts to win 23-20. Using winning Point Margin as a tiebreaker automatically and unfairly awards a tie to whoever picked the winner, even though 4 of us could be 8-3 after the game. So you really need to use Total Points Scored as the only tiebreaker. How can I win the tiebreaker if I take the Colts and they lose? Most NFL weekly contests use Total Points Scored in the Monday night game. Otherwise I'd take Da Bears to win 23-20.

2k6nats · « **Reply #10:** January 30, 2007, 06:08:49 PM »

I now predict the Bears to win 27-17.

NatsAddict · « **Reply #11:** January 30, 2007, 07:39:37 PM »

I want to Colts to win in a most heartbreaking fashion for the Bears fans - there may be some Cubs fans in there. I'd like to get Bartman involved, but that's more difficult in a football game.

Kenz aFan · « **Reply #12:** January 30, 2007, 10:49:00 PM »

Da Bears 31-17

Kenz aFan · « **Reply #13:** January 30, 2007, 10:54:27 PM »

Quote from: 2k6nats on January 30, 2007, 06:08:49 PM

I now predict the Bears to win 27-24.

LOL Considering that you picked neither the Bears or the Colts to be in the Super Bowl, who would you have picked had Vladman1327 and nats2playoffs picked different teams?

Also, now that you've seen their and our scores, could you explain the tie-breaker again?

nats2playoffs · « **Reply #14:** January 30, 2007, 11:08:26 PM »

Quote from: NatsAddict on January 30, 2007, 07:39:37 PM

I want to Colts to win in a most heartbreaking fashion for the Bears fans - there may be some Cubs fans in there. I'd like to get Bartman involved, but that's more difficult in a football game.

The game goes into overtime. The Colts win the toss and return the kickoff to mid-field. Manning drops back and the ball is loose. Urlacher picks up the ball for the Bears, and races to the end zone, with Colts players nipping at his heels. Urlacher gets into the end zone, where he spikes the ball and starts jumping up and down in glee. The referee signals "touchdown" - while the Colts are holding the ball up - because Urlacher ran to the WRONG END ZONE! (Remember Jim Marshall.) To prolong the agony, the Bears challenge the ruling on the field, claiming that Manning's arm was in motion, and that it should have been ruled an incomplete pass, instead of a fumble. Several angles in the TV replays show that it WAS an incomplete pass! After nine L-O-N-G minutes, the head referee announces that the ruling on the field STANDS, because the replay evidence was not overwhelming enough to overrturn the ruling on the field.
Colts win.

Would THAT do it for you? Just how much do you hate the Cubs??? With the lazy manager they hired and what they're paying Soriano, another last place Cubs finish in 2007 really ought to be enough...

Kenz aFan · « **Reply #15:** January 30, 2007, 11:18:26 PM »

LOLOL Too funny... and you just never know...

NatsAddict · « **Reply #16:** January 31, 2007, 08:01:59 AM »

Quote from: nats2playoffs on January 30, 2007, 11:08:26 PM

The game goes into overtime. The Colts win the toss and return the kickoff to mid-field. Manning drops back and the ball is loose. Urlacher picks up the ball for the Bears, and races to the end zone, with Colts players nipping at his heels. Urlacher gets into the end zone, where he spikes the ball and starts jumping up and down in glee. The referee signals "touchdown" - while the Colts are holding the ball up - because Urlacher ran to the WRONG END ZONE! (Remember Jim Marshall.) To prolong the agony, the Bears challenge the ruling on the field, claiming that Manning's arm was in motion, and that it should have been ruled an incomplete pass, instead of a fumble. Several angles in the TV replays show that it WAS an incomplete pass! After nine L-O-N-G minutes, the head referee announces that the ruling on the field STANDS, because the replay evidence was not overwhelming enough to overrturn the ruling on the field.
Colts win.

BEAUTIFUL!

Quote from: nats2playoffs on January 30, 2007, 11:08:26 PM

Just how much do you hate the Cubs???

I'd say it's pretty close to infinite.

When at a game, home or away, I always respect the other fans and their right to enjoy the game. I find that is generally true with most other fans, except Mets fans and the wide open leaders - Cubs fans. Even Yankee fans in the WS down here were very decent. I have nothing against opposing fans rooting for their team - that's what they are supposed to do and what I do for my team. But, I've never met a half-way decent Cubs fan. I've never met one with any concept of decency, reality, or more than a single-digit IQ. They go out of their way to be annoying, which seems to come naturally to them. They, without exception, they try to block your view of the game whenever something good is happening for your team, or its a criticial situation and the Cubs are choking again. The point being, I can't resist their arrogance and obnoxiousness. They are the only fans at which my daughter has thrown peanut shells (she's only done this a few times) without being immediately and severely disciplined. She saw that I saw her (and her friends) tossing peanut shells, and had a mortified look on her face thinking her and her friends were about to be removed from their seats and driven directly home in silence. I just smiled and winked at her. Then I had to explain to them as we celebrated heading home that it was still wrong, and that I was guilty too. Of course, I had to do this sitting around a table with them at a Cold Stone ice cream store celebrating every facet of the game. Cubs make parenting very difficult.

2k6nats · « **Reply #17:** January 31, 2007, 08:27:06 AM »

Quote from: Kenz aFan on January 30, 2007, 10:54:27 PM

LOL Considering that you picked neither the Bears or the Colts to be in the Super Bowl, who would you have picked had Vladman1327 and nats2playoffs picked different teams?

Also, now that you've seen their and our scores, could you explain the tie-breaker again?

Let's just say picking my team would have been a lot harder

--------------

If two people have the same number of correct predictions, these are how the tie is broken:

1. The person with more incorrect wins.
When someone has more incorrect, this also means they participated more.

2. Correct SuperBowl prediction.
The person(s) in the tie who correctly predicted the SuperBowl.

3. Total points differential
This is an example of how this system works:

Say the score of the game is that the Bears win 21-14. My prediction was Bears win 27-24. I would add up the difference from my score to the actual score. The difference in my Bears prediction was 6, the difference in my Colts prediction was 10.

This would make my total number 10. Using this method, Ken's number would be 11. I would win, because my score is lower than Ken's.

If anyone is confused AT ALL, please ask before Sunday, so the rules can be completely understood BEFORE the results are in.

nats2playoffs · « **Reply #18:** January 31, 2007, 10:19:22 AM »

Quote from: 2k6nats on January 31, 2007, 08:27:06 AM

If two people have the same number of correct predictions, these are how the tie is broken:
1. The person with more incorrect wins.
When someone has more incorrect, this also means they participated more.
2. Correct SuperBowl prediction.
The person(s) in the tie who correctly predicted the SuperBowl.
3. Total points differential
If anyone is confused AT ALL, please ask before Sunday, so the rules can be completely understood BEFORE the results are in.

Number 2 and Number 3 need to be changed, because if they're not, I already said I'm taking Da Bears 23-20. That means that you and Kenz aFan are automatically out - NOW, before the game is even played. AND, the points and scores wouldn't matter either. If Da Bears win, I win. If the Colts win, Vladman1327 wins. It's that simple. But it's not any fun.

We didn't assign point values to the Wild Card weekend, the next weekend, or the Conference Championships. So it makes no sense to now assign a higher value to picking the Super Bowl winner. When people assign values to rounds (such as in a March Madness NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament contest), they are assigned before anyone enters, so they know the risks for each pick.

I was in a lot of weekly NFL contests. Going into Monday night, one player might be 10-5 while 3 others were 9-6. The Monday game was never worth any more than any other game. But your predicted total score for that game was the tiebreaker. If the 10-5 guy picked wrong, he could still win, since everyone is going to be 10-6. It added lots of excitement, and can have you on the edge of your seat until the game ends. The score of the Monday game often decided the winner. All sorts of pools have used this method for many years.

With this method, the Super Bowl Total Point Tiebreakers are:
Vladman1327, Colts 24-17 = 41 total points.
nats2playoffs, Colts 23-20 = 43 total points.
2k6nats, Bears 27-17 = 44 total points.
Kenz aFan, Bears 31-17, 48 total points.
In a pool like this, if Da Bears won with a total score of 46, you and Kenz aFan would split the winnings/bragging rights, since it's in between your picks. (And you normally don't know anyone else's tiebreaker total when you submit your entry.) If the Colts win, Vladman1327 and I tie at 42. (I have seen ties in weekly NFL contests.)

Like I said, if you want to do it your way, I take Da Bears, the scores don't matter, and it's down to me and Vladman1327.

Dave B · « **Reply #19:** January 31, 2007, 11:36:49 AM »

I hate the superbowl. I think if the jets (fave team) were to ever win the AFC, I'd just be happy with that. I wont know until it happens. If they did make it, i'd rather them play at the other teams stadium than neutral site. It just doesnt feel like a real game unless it is at a team's stadium. Its like exhibition

2k6nats · « **Reply #20:** January 31, 2007, 11:55:23 AM »

I see your point N2P. Total point differential is now higher than SuperBowl correctness. So Ken and I take the Bears, and you and Vladman take the Colts.

Kenz aFan · « **Reply #21:** January 31, 2007, 01:59:45 PM »

OK I'm gonna make this easy, since I couldn't care a less who wins the SP on Sunday, and SINCE players are changing their predictions to suit who they are racing against, and since there is starting to be too much confusion on the tie breaker rules.. I am WITHDRAWING my prediction, so you can EXCLUDE me form the game...

For one, those who had no correct predictions to GET INTO the Super Bowl shouldn't even be participating, and those who DID have a correct prediction should be required to use the team they guessed right on, or either if they got both correct.

Thank you... That is all... CLICK

nats2playoffs · « **Reply #22:** January 31, 2007, 03:15:43 PM »

...which is now absolute "Murphy's Law" proof that Da Bears will win 31-17 for Kenz aFan.

The Chief started all this by simply asking who would win the Wild Card games. Every weekend we picked the next set of winners, with no further commitment to any team. I just want to see a good game.

2k6nats · « **Reply #23:** January 31, 2007, 03:19:00 PM »

Yeah, I don't want to make this into some ultra-competitive thing. It'll just be interesting to see what happens.

nats2playoffs · « **Reply #24:** January 31, 2007, 03:42:28 PM »

But I thought first prize was your recreational vehicle/summer cottage...