The "lowly" Nationals are 3-3 against the Mets this year

[sportsfan882]

Confidently, Jorge Sosa strode to the mound on Friday night against the lowly Nationals, a team that stood just percentage points away from being the NL's worst. Confidently, he warmed up, showcasing his fastball and two different sliders. And confidently he delivered to Felipe Lopez, the slumping Nats shortstop who hadn't poked his average above .250 since May...

http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/news/gameday_recap.jsp?ymd=20070727&content_id=2113598&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=nym

[2k6nats]

That's just terrible...

[wpa2629]

That's just terrible...

It's new york .. .what do you expect - they're almost as dilusional as philly fans

[natsdad]

Mets notoriously have a hard time with lefties.

[PC]

The person who writes the sportsline.com review for the Nats calls them "lowly" almost every game.

It's small and small-minded.  I'd love to know who's writing them and why he appears to have some sort of ax to grind.

[natsfan1a]

We'll get 'em in this next game.

[tomterp]

The person who writes the sportsline.com review for the Nats calls them "lowly" almost every game.

It's small and small-minded.  I'd love to know who's writing them and why he appears to have some sort of ax to grind.

Jay Jaffe publishes a ranking list of all 30 teams, based 25% on W-L record, and then a mix of other adjusted factors.  The Nats have been last most of the season, which provoked me to get annoyed and send him an alcohol induced email, in which I tersely asked him if at some point actual games won might be able to influence his ratings. 

He responded graciously, explaining his system (not opinion, rather based on SABR type stuff but for the whole season, not weighted towards recent performance.)  Anyway, we exchanges a few mails, and he admitted that he had no idea that the Nats had a winning record since 9-25, and that he was going to use this in his column.  Anyway, the Nats come in at 29 this week (thanks, D-Rays) and here are his comments related to the ranking.

"On the (Meat)Hook: as the deadline looms, the Nats are close to a two-year, $10 million deal with their most tradeable hitter, Dmitri Young. In the short term, that's probably a good thing; without Young's 28.9 VORP, the offense would evaporate into nothingness, but its commentary on the state of Nick Johnson is a bummer. Still, the fact that the Nats are 34-33 since their dreadful 9-25 start suggests this team may be more interested in adding the likes of Adam Dunn than conducting a fire sale. "

My larger point is, that we should make a concerted effort to reach out to these guys and nicely attempt to educate them as to the errors of their ways.  Most analysts don't have much time for looking at the bottom rungs of the leagues, and I guarantee that the things good we've done this year are under their radar systems.

[natsfan1a]

So would that be a "no," then, on sending alcohol-induced emails to them?

Seriously, though, nice work getting us back on the radar screen!

My larger point is, that we should make a concerted effort to reach out to these guys and nicely attempt to educate them as to the errors of their ways.  Most analysts don't have much time for looking at the bottom rungs of the leagues, and I guarantee that the things good we've done this year are under their radar systems.

[tomterp]

Here's my original note, along with his response that he posted in a new column he just debuted this week:

Mailing It In

Hello Jay, I always read your 'Hit List', eagerly anticipating the day my beloved Washington Nationals rise above 30th place. Okay, they spent a few weeks above, but now they seemed doomed to last forever. Since starting the season 9-25, they are 33-31, including 9-9 vs. the much vaunted American League. At some point, shouldn't actual games won factor into the rankings? Regards, TM

TM, actual wins do factor into the Hit List in the form of actual winning percentage. It's 1/4 of the recipe, along with first-, second-, and third-order winning percentages. And that's the real problem for the Nats—through the games leading up to last Friday's Hit List, they had the 28th-best actual winning percentage. They also had the 29th-best first- and third-order winning percentages, and they were dead last in second-order. All told, they missed leaving the basement by just .003, but you can cheer up. It's a good bet that the severe beatdowns the Devil Rays received at the hands of the Yankees will be enough to help your beloved club assert itself as the Hit List's 29th-best team next week. We'll see about that come Friday.