I never dreamed that Espinosa would become a less effective hitter if he cut his K rate, but his groundball rate has jumped and a fair number of them are weak ones. His BABIP is freaky low, by 100 points off his worst full season, but given the number of weak ground balls, I'm not sure it isn't deserved.
I plan on doing a more detailed look at the counts he is getting into, but I'm going to guess that the only way a guy with a low contact rate cuts down his Ks is by taking fewer pitches early. Also, I'd like to know if low contact rate guys have BABIP declines that correlate to K rate declines (the inference being that by being more aggressive and going less deep in counts, the extra swings generate more weak balls in play).
It may be the case that by shortening the swing and being more aggressive, he's robbed himself (with Davey's help) of his power tool. I say this knowing his XBH% is high, but my sense is almost anything other than an extra base hit is a weak tapper.
Anyone who knows the numbers have some thoughts?
